Arkansas Republican Primary Election Results
Last updated March 19, 2024
Arkansas Republican Primary Election Results
Winner
Donald J. Trump wins the Arkansas Republican primary.
Race called by The Associated Press.
Republican Primary race called
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | Delegates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald J. TrumpD. TrumpTrump | 204,898 | 76.9% | 39 | |
| Nikki HaleyN. HaleyHaley | 49,085 | 18.4 | 1 | |
| Asa HutchinsonA. HutchinsonHutchinson | 7,377 | 2.8 | No delegates | |
| Total reported | 266,473 | |||
100% of delegates allocated (40 of 40) | ||||
Where votes have been reported and where votes remain
These maps show the leading candidates’ margins in the vote reported so far, and estimates for which candidate leads in the remaining votes that we expect from each place.
| County | Trump | Haley | Hutchinson | Percent of votes in | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevier | 88% | 9% | 1% | 60% | ||
| Lonoke | 82 | 15 | 2 | 65% | ||
| Arkansas | 81 | 15 | 2 | 66% | ||
| Bradley | 87 | 9 | 2 | 68% | ||
| Baxter | 80 | 16 | 2 | 69% | ||
| Ouachita | 85 | 13 | 1 | 69% | ||
| Yell | 84 | 13 | 1 | 70% | ||
| Chicot | 87 | 10 | 2 | 71% | ||
| Dallas | 88 | 10 | 2 | 72% | ||
| Ashley | 91 | 7 | 1 | 73% | ||
| Franklin | 82 | 13 | 3 | 74% | ||
| Saint Francis | 85 | 10 | 3 | 74% | ||
| Independence | 84 | 13 | 2 | 76% | ||
| Polk | 87 | 10 | 1 | 76% | ||
| Montgomery | 86 | 12 | 1 | 79% | ||
| Miller | 87 | 9 | 2 | 82% | ||
| Van Buren | 84 | 13 | 2 | 82% | ||
| Little River | 90 | 7 | 2 | 82% | ||
| Garland | 76 | 20 | 3 | 84% | ||
| Craighead | 79 | 17 | 2 | 84% | ||
| Lawrence | 83 | 12 | 4 | 86% | ||
| Fulton | 85 | 11 | 2 | 87% | ||
| Jackson | 87 | 10 | 2 | 87% | ||
| Howard | 83 | 13 | 3 | 90% | ||
| Scott | 88 | 10 | 2 | 92% | ||
| Benton | 68 | 26 | 3 | >95% | ||
| Pulaski | 59 | 35 | 4 | >95% | ||
| Washington | 65 | 29 | 4 | >95% | ||
| Saline | 76 | 19 | 3 | >95% | ||
| Sebastian | 75 | 20 | 3 | >95% | ||
| Faulkner | 76 | 19 | 3 | >95% | ||
| White | 78 | 16 | 3 | >95% | ||
| Crawford | 82 | 14 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Pope | 80 | 15 | 3 | >95% | ||
| Cleburne | 83 | 13 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Greene | 81 | 14 | 3 | >95% | ||
| Boone | 83 | 13 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Hot Spring | 84 | 13 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Carroll | 78 | 18 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Marion | 82 | 14 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Jefferson | 84 | 13 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Union | 83 | 13 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Crittenden | 85 | 11 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Hempstead | 83 | 11 | 4 | >95% | ||
| Johnson | 81 | 16 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Poinsett | 88 | 9 | 3 | >95% | ||
| Sharp | 86 | 10 | 3 | >95% | ||
| Madison | 81 | 15 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Stone | 85 | 11 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Izard | 83 | 12 | 3 | >95% | ||
| Cross | 86 | 10 | 3 | >95% | ||
| Logan | 81 | 15 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Grant | 84 | 13 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Columbia | 84 | 10 | 3 | >95% | ||
| Conway | 81 | 15 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Randolph | 81 | 16 | 1 | >95% | ||
| Pike | 87 | 10 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Drew | 82 | 16 | 1 | >95% | ||
| Cleveland | 89 | 10 | 1 | >95% | ||
| Prairie | 87 | 10 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Calhoun | 88 | 8 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Lincoln | 88 | 10 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Lee | 89 | 7 | 2 | >95% | ||
| Desha | 87 | 11 | 1 | >95% | ||
| Mississippi | 82 | 11 | 4 | 100% | ||
| Clark | 77 | 18 | 3 | 100% | ||
| Searcy | 88 | 9 | 2 | 100% | ||
| Perry | 84 | 12 | 2 | 100% | ||
| Clay | 86 | 9 | 3 | 100% | ||
| Newton | 86 | 11 | 2 | 100% | ||
| Phillips | 91 | 5 | 2 | 100% | ||
| Nevada | 86 | 10 | 2 | 100% | ||
| Monroe | 87 | 11 | 2 | 100% | ||
| Lafayette | 90 | 7 | 1 | 100% | ||
| Woodruff | 87 | 10 | 2 | 100% | ||
We stopped updating our estimates. These graphics and estimates are now showing archived data.
Live forecast
This is our current best estimate for the outcome of this race. We look at the votes that have been reported so far and adjust our estimate based on what we expect from the votes that remain. Read more about how it works.
Estimated margin
Trump +59
Trump +53 to Trump +62
Estimating the final vote shares for Trump and Haley
This chart shows the range of estimates for the leading candidates’ shares of the final vote. As more votes are reported, the ranges should narrow as our statistical model becomes more confident.
How our estimates changed over time
Once a state has counted all its votes, our estimated margin and the reported margin will match. As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady in the presence of new data, our forecast is more trustworthy.
How our final margin estimate has changed so far
Share of expected turnout reported
What’s powering our forecast right now?
Our election model makes use of three indicators in creating an estimate of the final result.
Pre-election polls
1%
Our model
23%
Actual results
76%
- Pre-election polls: At the start of the night, our estimate is based on pre-election polls, results of past elections and demographic data.
- Our model: As results come in, we compare actual results in places that have mostly completed reporting to our pre-election estimates to create a statistical model for the remaining vote.
- Actual results: As a county reports more of its vote, those actual results will gradually supersede our previous estimates.
What to expect
Polls close at 8:30 p.m. Eastern time. In the 2022 state primaries, first results were reported 14 minutes later, and the last update of the night was at 3:18 a.m. Eastern time with 99 percent of votes reported.
Voters do not register by party, but they could only participate in one party’s primary. The state offered a period of in-person early voting, but voters were required to have a valid excuse to vote absentee. Arkansas is one of five states on Tuesday holding presidential primaries as well as its state primary, which will include races for state and congressional offices. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in a state primary race, the top two candidates will advance to an April runoff.
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