Keir Starmer’s pledge to halve violence against women will put more pressure on prisons, a Home Office adviser has warned, adding that there could be an additional 10,000 domestic abuse convictions if just one in three victims come forward.
Nicole Jacobs, the government’s domestic abuse commissioner, has written to the prime minister to highlight that the current prisons crisis is taking place at a time of historically low rates of convictions for those perpetrating domestic abuse.
Starmer has promised to halve violence against women and girls within a decade, with measures including dedicated “rape courts” and domestic violence experts taking 999 calls.
In her letter, Jacobs welcomes the new Labour government commitments but questions how they can be achieved at a time when ministers are expected to authorise emergency measures this week under which criminals could be automatically freed after serving between 40% and 45% of their sentence.
With just a few hundred places left in prisons, the new justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has been told that a decision must be made this week to prevent full capacity being hit by 1 August.
Jacobs writes of her concerns about the early release scheme, arguing that those who have perpetrated domestic abuse should be exempted, while calling for long-term planning to avoid the prisons crisis affecting Labour’s goal on violence against women and girls.
She writes: “This problem requires long-term solutions. We must acknowledge that this crisis is occurring when just one in five victims of domestic abuse report to the police, and just 5% of police recorded domestic abuse results in a conviction.
“As we work to raise awareness of domestic abuse, build faith in the criminal justice system and improve criminal justice outcomes for victims who do report, convictions will, and should, only increase. Our criminal justice system must be prepared for that.
“If returning to the 2016 high of 18% of police-recorded domestic abuse resulting in a conviction, this would be considerably higher.
“A lack of prison places must not stop the new government’s ambition to halve violence against women and girls in a decade. We owe it to the 2.1 million victims of domestic abuse every year.”
Early release schemes under the last government freed several people jailed for domestic abuse.
Charlie Taylor, the chief inspector of prisons, found in May that a “high-risk” inmate at HMP Lewes who posed a danger to children had had his release date brought forward despite “having a history of stalking, domestic abuse and being subject to a restraining order”.
Jacobs writes: “Any prisoner early release scheme, if progressed, must include an exemption for domestic abuse – this includes those convicted of domestic abuse-related offences, as well as those convicted for other offences, but where there is a known history of domestic abuse.
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“HM Inspectorate of Probation found that around one-third of those being managed by probation were known perpetrators of domestic abuse, even when this was not their index offence.
“For those perpetrators who have received prison sentences, this provides a period of respite for victims and their children to recover and plan for their safety. Early release undermines this, especially when victims are unable to know the date of their perpetrator’s release – without this, safety planning is impossible. Victims must not pay the price of prison overcrowding.”
Prosecution and convictions for domestic abuse have been on a downward trend for a decade.
The latest quarterly results, published in April, showed a slight increase in the number of referrals from the police, but also revealed charging rates had decreased to 78.4% in the past three months.
Completed prosecutions had decreased by 0.8% from 105,076 to 104,195 in the third quarter of 2023-24 compared with the previous three months, according to data published by the CPS in April. The conviction rate had decreased by 0.5 percentage points.
A government spokesperson said: “This Government is committed to halving violence against women and girls in the next decade.
“The safety of victims is paramount, that is why we must grip the crisis in our prisons to make sure we have the spaces needed to lock up dangerous criminals, including despicable violent sexual offenders.”