Election 2024 Polls: North Carolina
Election 2024 Polls: North Carolina
North Carolina polling average
President Biden had trailed former President Donald J. Trump in the national polling average almost every day this year, and he had also faced a deficit in the states needed to reach 270 electoral votes. After June’s presidential debate, the gap widened, and as Biden ended his campaign, polls found him down three points nationally and four or more points in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. This page will be updated as more polling becomes available on Harris and other potential replacements. Updated July 21
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more. You can toggle to show only select pollsters and choose head-to-head or three-way matchups.
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Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
We calculate averages for polls that ask voters to choose between Biden and Trump, and for polls that include Kennedy. (Many polls do both.) Here’s a comparison of these averages.
North Carolina polling average
Third-party candidates present particular challenges for pollsters, and they can be a significant factor in elections. Here you can get a sense of how Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might have affected support for the major candidates. Just know that, historically, most polls have significantly overstated support for third-party candidates.
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.