Toplines: June 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide

June 26, 2024

Results of a nationwide New York Times/Siena College poll conducted among 1,226 registered voters from June 20 to 25, 2024.

Toplines | Registered Voter Cross-Tabs | Likely Electorate Cross-Tabs

(Combined result among two variants) Do you think the United States is on the right track/headed in the direction, or is it headed in the wrong direction/off on the wrong track?

[IF NEEDED: Based on anything you may have seen or heard, if you had to pick, would you say ...]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	1,226
Right track/direction		22%
Wrong direction/track		67%
[VOLUNTEERED] Don't know/Refused		11%

(Split A) Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?

[IF NEEDED: Based on anything you may have seen or heard, if you had to pick, would you say right track or wrong direction?]

Date	Pop.	Right track	Wrong direction	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	23%	66%	11%
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	25	64	11
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	24	65	11
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	23	65	13
Oct. 9-12, 2022	R.V.	24	62	14
Sept. 6-14, 2022	R.V.	27	60	13
July 5-7, 2022	R.V.	13	77	10
Sept. 22-24, 2020	R.V.	35	56	10
June 17-22, 2020	R.V.	31	58	11
Oct. 28-Nov. 1, 2016 Times/CBS	Adults	35	61	3
July 8-12, 2016 Times/CBS	Adults	26	69	5
Note: Before 2020, the question wording was, “Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?”

(Split B) Do you think the United States is headed in the right direction, or is it off on the wrong track?

[IF NEEDED: Based on anything you may have seen or heard, if you had to pick, would you say right direction or wrong track?]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	619
Right direction		20%
Wrong track		68%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		12%

Thinking ahead to the presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	1,226
Almost certain		56%
Very likely		24%
Somewhat likely		8%
Not very likely		3%
Not at all likely		6%
[VOL] Already voted		0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

(Includes leaners) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Date	Pop.	Joe Biden, the Democrat	Donald Trump, the Republican	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	42%	48%	10%
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	45	46	8
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	43	48	10
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	44	46	9

(Without leaners) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

[READ LIST]

[IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	1,226
Joe Biden, the Democrat		32%
Donald Trump, the Republican		39%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate		9%
Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate		2%
[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate		<.5%
Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate		2%
[VOL] Another candidate		1%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices		4%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		11%

(If not supporting Trump or Biden) If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward:

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	349
Joe Biden, the Democrat		32%
Donald Trump, the Republican		32%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		35%

(Recoded to age) In what year were you born?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	1,226
18-29		16%
30-44		24%
45-64		31%
65+		26%
Refused		4%

What is the highest educational level that you have completed?

[READ LIST]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	1,226
Grade school		3%
High school		27%
Vocational or trade school		4%
Some college, no degree		17%
Associate’s degree		10%
Bachelor's degree		24%
Graduate or professional degree		15%
[VOL] Refused		<1%

Would you consider yourself:

[READ LIST]

[IF biracial or multi racial ask: What races would that be?]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	1,226
White		63%
Hispanic or Latino		12%
Black or African American		11%
Asian		3%
American Indian or Alaska Native		<1%
Middle Eastern or North African		1%
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander		<1%
[VOL] Some other race (specify)		3%
[VOL] More than one race		2%
[VOL] Refused		3%

Note: Responses to questions after this point are reported only for respondents who completed the entire questionnaire.

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Democrat		28%
Republican		29%
Independent		34%
Another party		4%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		5%

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Donald Trump		36%
Joe Biden		40%
I did not vote		19%
[VOL] Someone else		3%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

(Excluding “I did not vote”) Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	829
Donald Trump		44%
Joe Biden		49%
[VOL] Someone else		4%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?

Date	Pop.	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	14%	21%	15%	46%	4%
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	16	22	12	47	3
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	17	19	14	47	3
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	12	25	15	43	6
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	18	21	12	42	7
Oct. 9-12, 2022	R.V.	16	22	15	42	6
Sept. 6-14, 2022	R.V.	18	23	9	44	5
July 5-7, 2022	R.V.	13	20	15	45	6

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump.

Date	Pop.	Very favorable	Somewhat favorable	Somewhat unfavorable	Very unfavorable	[VOL] Have not heard of	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	23%	23%	13%	39%	0%	3%
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	20	23	12	43	<.5	2
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	22	21	11	43	0	2
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	24	19	12	43	<.5	3
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	21	20	11	44	0	4
Oct. 9-12, 2022	R.V.	22	20	10	42	<.5	5
Sept. 6-14, 2022	R.V.	23	20	9	44	<.5	3
July 5-7, 2022	R.V.	21	18	8	49		3
Oct. 15-18, 2020	R.V.	32	12	7	46		3
Sept. 22-24, 2020	R.V.	31	13	7	46		3
June 17-22, 2020	R.V.	27	13	6	50		4

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden.

Date	Pop.	Very favorable	Somewhat favorable	Somewhat unfavorable	Very unfavorable	[VOL] Have not heard of	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	14%	24%	18%	41%	<.5%	3%
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	15	25	15	41	<.5	3
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	14	24	17	42	0	3
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	13	26	20	37	0	4
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	17	26	16	38	<.5	3
Sept. 6-14, 2022	R.V.	20	27	11	40	<.5	3
July 5-7, 2022	R.V.	14	25	18	40		3
Oct. 15-18, 2020	R.V.	29	23	9	35		4
Sept. 22-24, 2020	R.V.	25	26	12	32		5
June 17-22, 2020	R.V.	26	26	15	27		5

How much attention are you paying to the upcoming presidential election?

[READ LIST]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
A lot		48%
Some		32%
Not much		13%
None at all		6%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		<1%

Do you think Joe Biden should remain the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, or should there be a different Democratic nominee for president?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Joe Biden should remain the Democratic nominee		29%
There should be a different Democratic nominee		64%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		7%

Do you think Donald Trump should remain the Republican Party’s nominee for president, or should there be a different Republican nominee for president?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Donald Trump should remain the Republican nominee		39%
There should be a different Republican nominee		55%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		6%

Do you intend to watch the presidential debate on Thursday, June 27?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Yes		74%
No		22%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		4%

How well do you think Joe Biden will do in the upcoming presidential debate?

[READ LIST]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Very well		11%
Somewhat well		35%
Not too well		24%
Not well at all		25%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		5%

How well do you think Donald Trump will do in the upcoming presidential debate?

[READ LIST]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Very well		27%
Somewhat well		33%
Not too well		15%
Not well at all		19%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		6%

What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November?

[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just one...]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
[VOL] The economy (including jobs and the stock market)		22%
[VOL] Inflation and the cost of living		6%
[VOL] Abortion		8%
[VOL] Immigration		16%
[VOL] Crime		<1%
[VOL] Gun policies		<.5%
[VOL] Health care		1%
[VOL] Education		<1%
[VOL] Foreign policy		6%
[VOL] Russia/the war in Ukraine		<1%
[VOL] China		0%
[VOL] Climate change		1%
[VOL] The state of democracy/corruption		5%
[VOL] Election integrity		<.5%
[VOL] Equality/inequality		2%
[VOL] Polarization/division		<1%
[VOL] Racism/racial issues		<.5%
[VOL] Dislike of opposing candidate (Trump or Biden)		4%
[VOL] Character/competence of candidate (Trump or Biden)		6%
[VOL] The Middle East/Israel/Palestinians		2%
[VOL] Taxes		1%
[VOL] Student loans		0%
[VOL] Other (specify)		7%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		8%

Which candidate do you think would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important?

[READ LIST]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Joe Biden, the Democrat		37%
Donald Trump, the Republican		51%
[VOL] Neither candidate		8%
[VOL] Someone else, specify		<1%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		4%

Regardless of who you support, who do you think will win the 2024 presidential election?

[READ LIST]

Date	Pop.	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	38%	48%	14%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	39	48	14

Next, regardless of who you support for president, tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements.

Joe Biden is just too old to be an effective president.

[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree...]

Date	Pop.	Strongly agree	Somewhat agree	Somewhat disagree	Strongly disagree	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	48%	22%	15%	13%	3%
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	48	21	14	13	3
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	47	26	14	11	2

Donald Trump is just too old to be an effective president.

[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree...]

Date	Pop.	Strongly agree	Somewhat agree	Somewhat disagree	Strongly disagree	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	19%	20%	25%	33%	3%
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	21	21	23	32	3
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	21	21	23	32	2

(If Biden is too old to be effective) Thinking again about Joe Biden’s age, which of the following statements comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

[READ LIST]

Date	Pop.	Joe Biden’s age makes him ineffective, but he is still able to handle the job of president well enough	Joe Biden’s age is such a problem that he is not capable of handling the job of president	[VOL] Don't know /Refused	[PREVIOUSLY] Somewhat disagree	[PREVIOUSLY] Strongly disagree	[PREVIOUSLY] Don't know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	22%	45%	2%	15%	13%	3%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	26	45	2	14	11	2

(Without combination) (If Biden is too old to be effective) Thinking again about Joe Biden’s age, which of the following statements comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

[READ LIST]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	679
Joe Biden’s age makes him ineffective, but he is still able to handle the job of president well enough		31%
Joe Biden’s age is such a problem that he is not capable of handling the job of president		66%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

(If Trump is too old to be effective) Thinking again about Donald Trump’s age, which of the following statements comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

[READ LIST]

Date	Pop.	Donald Trump’s age makes him ineffective, but he is still able to handle the job of president well enough	Donald Trump’s age is such a problem that he is not capable of handling the job of president	[VOL] Don't know /Refused	[PREVIOUSLY] Somewhat disagree	[PREVIOUSLY] Strongly disagree	[PREVIOUSLY] Don't know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	20%	16%	2%	25%	33%	3%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	21	19	2	23	32	2

(Without combination) (If Trump is too old to be effective) Thinking again about Donald Trump’s age, which of the following statements comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

[READ LIST]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	393
Donald Trump’s age makes him ineffective, but he is still able to handle the job of president well enough		52%
Donald Trump’s age is such a problem that he is not capable of handling the job of president		42%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		5%

Do you think Joe Biden has the personality and temperament to be an effective president?

Date	Pop.	Yes	No	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	47%	51%	2%
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	45	54	1
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	51	45	4

Do you think Donald Trump has the personality and temperament to be an effective president?

Date	Pop.	Yes	No	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	45%	53%	2%
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	41	57	2
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	41	56	3
Oct. 28-Nov. 1, 2016 Times/CBS *	R.V.	32	66	2
Sept. 9-13, 2016 Times/CBS *	R.V.	31	64	4
May 13-17, 2016 Times/CBS *	R.V.	27	70	3
* Question was: Do you think Donald Trump has the right kind of temperament and personality to be a good president, or not?

Thinking about the investigations into Donald Trump, do you think that Donald Trump has or has not committed any serious federal crimes?

Date	Pop.	Donald Trump has committed serious federal crimes	Donald Trump has not committed serious federal crimes	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	55%	36%	9%
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	54	37	9
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	53	36	11
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	58	33	9
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	51	35	14
Sept. 6-14, 2022	R.V.	51	38	11
July 5-7, 2022 *	R.V.	49	40	11
* Wording was: Do you think that Donald Trump did or did not commit any serious federal crimes in the aftermath of the 2020 election?

As you may have heard, Donald Trump was found guilty in May in his trial related to falsifying business records regarding hush money payments. Do you approve or disapprove of the verdict, or have you not heard enough to say?

[FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Strongly approve		40%
Somewhat approve		6%
Somewhat disapprove		4%
Strongly disapprove		26%
Have not heard enough to say		21%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

Did Donald Trump’s conviction in the Manhattan hush money trial make you more likely to support him or less likely to support him, or did it make no difference in your support for him?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
More likely to support him		10%
Less likely to support him		19%
Made no difference in support for him		68%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

Thinking about Donald Trump’s trial in New York related to hush money payments, do you think he was able to get a fair and impartial trial?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Yes		49%
No		43%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		8%

Thinking generally about all the criminal cases against Donald Trump, which comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

[READ LIST]

Date	Pop.	The charges against Donald Trump are mostly politically motivated.	Donald Trump was charged mostly because prosecutors believed he committed crimes.	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
June 20-25, 2024	R.V.	49%	47%	5%
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	46	48	6

Should Donald Trump be sentenced to prison in the Manhattan hush money case, or should he not be sentenced to prison?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Donald Trump should be sentenced to prison.		38%
Donald Trump should NOT be sentenced to prison.		53%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		9%

And just a few more questions for demographic purposes...

Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative?

[FOLLOW UP, if liberal or conservative: Is that very or somewhat?]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Very liberal		10%
Somewhat liberal		13%
Moderate		36%
Somewhat conservative		17%
Very conservative		17%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		6%

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?

[IF NEEDED: I just want to remind you that you are completely anonymous. We only use this information in aggregate form to ensure we have a representative group of people]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Under $25,000		10%
At least $25,000 but under $50,000		16%
At least $50,000 but under $100,000		31%
At least $100,000 but under $200,000		23%
$200,000 or more		12%
[VOL] Refused		8%

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Catholic		19%
Protestant (Christian)		31%
Mormon (LDS)		<1%
Jewish		2%
Muslim		1%
[VOL] Christian (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)		11%
[VOL] Greek/Russian Orthodox		<.5%
Some other religion (specify)		3%
No religious affiliation		30%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Yes		27%
No		18%
[PREVIOUSLY] Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, no religious affiliation or refused		53%
[VOL] Refused		2%

(Without combination) (If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	449
Yes		58%
No		38%
[VOL] Refused		4%

(If independent, another party or not sure) And as of today, do you lean more to:

[READ LIST]

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	423
The Democratic Party		38%
The Republican Party		36%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		26%

Combined: Party identification and leaners

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
The Democratic Party		44%
The Republican Party		44%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		11%

Would you be open to commenting on the issues in this survey and be interested in being contacted by a reporter?

Date:	June 20-25, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	991
Yes		31%
No		69%

Party ID is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents.

Gender is self-reported if the respondent completed the full questionnaire; otherwise, it is based on the interviewer’s determination. If neither are available, it is as reported on the voter file.

Neighborhood type is a New York Times classification based on each voter’s address. Voters within a metropolitan area’s central city are classified as living in a city. Voters living in a metropolitan area but outside the central city are considered suburban if they live in a census-designated urban area. All other voters — those living in nonmetropolitan areas, and those living in non-urbanized parts of metropolitan areas outside the central city — are classified as living in small towns or rural areas.

How This Poll Was Conducted

Here are the key things to know about this Times/Siena poll:

• We spoke with 1,226 registered voters from June 20 to 25, 2024.

• Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. More than 90 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, we placed nearly 150,000 calls to more than 100,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The poll’s margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,226 registered voters nationwide, including 991 who completed the full survey, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from June 20 to 25, 2024. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for the likely electorate. Among those who completed the full survey, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for the likely electorate.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

First, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state, telephone number quality and other demographic and political characteristics. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records, divided by the national sum of the weights.

Fielding

The sample was stratified according to political party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida, the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, and the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 91 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 13 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 17 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education, race or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available, or else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• National region (NYT classifications by state)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Metropolitan status (2013 NCHS Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

• Census tract educational attainment

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote intention. The final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was four-fifths based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.21 for registered voters and 1.33 for the likely electorate. The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.24 for registered voters and 1.33 for the likely electorate.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

Composition of the Sample

Group	Unweighted All R.V.s	Weighted All R.V.s	Weighted Likely Electorate	N
Gender
Men	50%	48%	47%	607
Women	49	51	52	606
Age
18 to 29	16%	16%	12%	192
30 to 44	22	24	22	270
45 to 64	32	31	34	394
65 and older	26	26	29	323
Education
High school	17%	30%	27%	213
Some college	34	31	31	421
College	26	24	25	314
Post-graduate	22	15	16	267
Home Ownership (L2 Model)
Likely renter	26%	27%	22%	322
Likely homeowner	46	46	52	562
Unknown	28	28	26	342
Marital Status (L2 Model)
Married	33%	33%	39%	399
Nontraditional	11	8	9	133
Unknown	57	58	51	694
Party (Self-Reported)
Democrat	28%	27%	29%	339
Republican	27	28	30	326
Independent	35	34	32	432
Party (Based on L2 Data)
Democrat	33%	33%	36%	410
Republican	29	29	34	360
Other	37	37	30	456
Race (L2 Model)
White	64%	63%	66%	790
Hispanic	13	12	10	164
Black	10	10	9	124
Asian	2	3	3	27
Other	3	4	3	34
Race (L2 Model)
White	64%	63%	66%	790
Nonwhite	29	29	25	350
National Region
Midwest	21%	21%	22%	263
Northeast	20	20	20	250
South	36	35	35	440
West	22	23	23	273
Turnout History (Based on L2 Data)
Voted in last midterm and in a primary	43%	41%	53%	533
Voted in last two midterms	22	22	24	267
Voted in last general, no midterm	11	13	11	137
Did not vote in last general or midterm	13	14	6	155
New registrant	11	10	6	134