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Let the Pros Play With the ‘Trump (or Harris) Trade’
Market sectors sometimes move when the political winds shift, but trading is hazardous for your financial health, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
I write about financial and economic issues that affect all Americans and, often, residents of other countries around the world, providing guidance on how to navigate and improve the markets, stay solvent as a consumer and an investor, and keep capitalism as honest and ethical as possible.
I’ve been a journalist since the mid-1970s, starting as a freelancer in Boston and then working as a local reporter in Albany, N.Y., Hackensack, N.J. and on Long Island. I was based in Beijing during the 1980s, and I roamed the continent as the Asia correspondent for Newsday. I went on to cover the former Soviet Union and became Newsday’s foreign editor. I joined The Times in 1995 where I’ve focused on national and business news.
Academic studies have informed my journalism. I hold three university degrees; in history from Cornell; journalism from Columbia; and East Asian studies and international affairs from Harvard. In addition, I studied economics and business as a Knight-Bagehot fellow at Columbia.
I’m a native of Queens, New York, and graduated from John Bowne High School in Flushing. While in high school, I was a copy boy for The Long Island Press.
All Times journalists are committed to upholding the standards of integrity outlined in our Ethical Journalism Handbook. As a financial columnist, I take the prohibition on conflicts of interest especially seriously. I practice what I preach. I own no individual stocks, only mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (mainly broad index funds), and do not trade actively. I have earned my living entirely as a writer and editor, and I have no other financial interests.
I’d prefer to be contacted by email.
Email: sommer@nytimes.com
Anonymous tips: nytimes.com/tips
Market sectors sometimes move when the political winds shift, but trading is hazardous for your financial health, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Traders appear to be focused on possible Fed rate cuts and corporate earnings, and are remarkably indifferent to political fortunes, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Stocks prospered in the first half of 2024 but national politics clouds the outlook.
By Jeff Sommer
After years of horrendous returns, core bonds were beginning to look like attractive, ho-hum investments. Then the debate happened.
By Jeff Sommer
With one big caveat, our columnist says most people are likely to be better off if they forget about politics when it comes to investing for the long haul.
By Jeff Sommer
The S&P 500 has been buoyant mainly because of A.I. fever, while bonds are having another mediocre year. But as an investor, our columnist is staying the course.
By Jeff Sommer
With new executive pay disclosures, the big picture is still riches at the top and lagging wages for most of the rank-and-file, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
A small tax increase would make the essential national retirement program secure for decades, our columnist says, but lawmakers would have to take action.
By Jeff Sommer
The prospects for future commerce, and peace, are intertwined, our columnist writes.
By Jeff Sommer
U.S. residents can still gamble on the presidential race — but regulators are trying to stop the practice.
By Jeff Sommer
Using index funds to make bets on these key categories is hazardous, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
The Federal Reserve is shedding assets at a glacial pace, exposing the financial system to continuing risks, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Strong reactions to rising prices and misunderstandings about the value of money are rampant, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Euphoria has been replaced by a much more somber mood, changing the value calculations in a host of markets, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Prediction markets say former President Donald J. Trump has a good chance of winning. So far, the stock market is fine with that.
By Jeff Sommer
Robert Shiller, the Nobel laureate, says valuations adjusted for high inflation suggest stock returns for the next decade are likely to be modest.
By Jeff Sommer
The latest enticing lottery prizes are the product of misleading advertising and high interest rates, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
On Wall Street, excitement about A.I. outweighs concern about interest rates. But rocketing stocks could make it tough for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
By Jeff Sommer
A.I. fervor has rocketed the chip company’s share price upward. Our columnist asked A.I. chatbots how big Nvidia would become if it kept growing as fast as it had over the past year.
By Jeff Sommer
Underlying economic and market factors mattered in previous presidential rematches. They may help President Biden, even if polls aren’t showing that so far.
By Jeff Sommer
Important regulations expire at the end of next year, thwarting tax planning and creating a monumental fiscal challenge for Congress.
By Jeff Sommer
BlackRock, State Street and Vanguard have opened up voting on environmental, social and management issues. It’s not true shareholder democracy, but it’s progress.
By Jeff Sommer
Most active fund managers beat the market at the start of the year. But history suggests that they’re not likely to keep doing so for long.
By Jeff Sommer
The company has stopped making contributions to 401(k) accounts, and instead gives workers cash credits in a new version of its old pension plan.
By Jeff Sommer
Vague comments about possible future rate cuts were all that central bankers gave the markets. Patience will be difficult at this tricky moment, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Compound returns that grow as stocks rise over the decades are far more important than the latest high, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Fear of missing out isn’t a great reason for investing in the new Bitcoin funds, our columnist says. Plus, Bitcoin may already be hidden in your portfolio.
By Jeff Sommer
The stock market’s long-term path has been persistently upward, our columnist says, but there have been plenty of setbacks and it’s wise to prepare for more.
By Jeff Sommer
So-called stock forecasts don’t deserve the name, our columnist says. Wall Street’s track record is horrendous.
By Jeff Sommer
Stock and bond markets have been rallying in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts. But don’t get swept away just yet, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Investors who want to lock in safe income may be hurt over the long haul if they don’t also hold stocks, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
The storm over the so-called 60/40 investment portfolio misses the point, our columnist says. The key issue is diversifying your portfolio, and that is as important as ever.
By Jeff Sommer
There’s new evidence that market timing doesn’t work. Your odds of success are better if you just hang on and aim for average returns, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
The state of the economy will affect voting next November, and the Federal Reserve may find itself in a delicate position, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
While two leading prediction markets are fighting regulatory restrictions in court, wagers on politics and economics are still being made.
By Jeff Sommer
The market is focused on making money now and isn’t heeding urgent warnings about climate change, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Soaring interest rates have the power to alter the direction of the economy and command the attention of Washington, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Back in 1994, bonds with fabulous yields were there for the taking. Our columnist doesn’t see treasures like that now, but there are solid buys.
By Jeff Sommer
As interest rates rose over the past few years, bond prices plummeted, making high-quality bonds more attractive, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Most people have lost money in the markets over the last several months, but people who have held on have prospered, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Treasury rates and oil and gasoline prices have been increasing, putting the Fed in a difficult spot, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
The U.S. currency has been on a tear, and the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates steady is likely to keep the dollar “higher for longer,” our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Stocks are mired in a holding pattern. The big question, our columnist says, is when will the Federal Reserve start to cut interest rates?
By Jeff Sommer
After a fierce rally largely propelled by a handful of tech stocks, the market’s rapid climb stalled in August. That setback could ultimately be a good thing, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
The prospects for a soft landing for the economy and the markets look better than they have in months. Our columnist is still worried.
By Jeff Sommer
Even after the latest U.S. debt downgrade, bonds remain the steadier counterpart to the flamboyant stock market, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Attracted by promises of high returns, many public pension funds have been loading up on private equity but may not fully appreciate the dangers, our columnist says.
By Jeff Sommer
Lowering inflation to 2 percent without causing a recession and throwing people out of work would be a rare achievement. The markets are acting as if it has already happened.
By Jeff Sommer
While stocks, bonds and money market funds have generated positive returns for the year, a quirk in the calendar is creating deceptively strong performances.
By Jeff Sommer
Devastated at the height of the pandemic, cruise lines have become top performers.
By Jeff Sommer