SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Iran has a new president-elect. Voters in the runoff election handed a decisive victory to the reformist candidate. NPR's Peter Kenyon is following the story from Istanbul. Peter, thanks for being with us.
PETER KENYON, BYLINE: Hi, Scott.
SIMON: Was this a surprise? What happened?
KENYON: Well, certainly, it was a surprisingly resounding win for this reformist and for the moderates who supported him. The winner, his name is Masoud Pezeshkian. He's a former health minister, a lawmaker. And he was squared off against a somewhat better-known hard-line conservative, a former nuclear negotiator named Saeed Jalili.
And since the first round of voting saw a record-low 40% of eligible voters turn out, no one was sure what to expect. But analysts say Iranians took a good look at these two very different contenders and gave Pezeshkian more than 2.8 million more votes than Jalili, so a decisive win.
SIMON: And what was the turnout like this time? We ought to note that there were not internationally recognized monitors for this election.
KENYON: That's quite true. And it would be hard to imagine turnout getting much worse than the first round in which none of four candidates managed to achieve an outright victory. Pezeshkian and Jalili were the ones who advanced to the runoff. This time turnout was a bit larger but still below 50% of eligible voters. That's low for Iran. It's a clear message voters preferred the reform candidate, but many still see no reason to vote.
SIMON: What do we know about the president-elect? How is he likely to govern compared with his predecessor?
KENYON: Well, there will definitely be a contrast between Pezeshkian and the late hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi. He was killed in a helicopter crash, resulting in the snap election. But perhaps not quite as dramatic as some Iranians might hope. During the campaign, Pezeshkian laid out a very modest agenda, avoiding any major changes. When he met with student groups, for instance, they were definitely not very impressed. He has, though, promised to engage more with the outside world, which the hard-liners were loath to do. And he's likely to appoint moderate cabinet ministers.
And we should note that Iranian president has certain powers, but all the important matters of state - economic, political, military - they're decided by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Pezeshkian recently told a reporter he wants to elevate the country, have people working together, not competing - fairly generic stuff.
Now, I asked Sanam Vakil - she's Iran analyst at the Chatham House think tank in London - what Pezeshkian might actually accomplish. She said, maybe a more relaxed approach to social norms, like dress codes, things like that. But she cautioned against being overoptimistic. Here's how she put it.
SANAM VAKIL: You know, these are his ideas. It's very unclear if he will be able to push them through and effect change, ultimately because the Iranian president, on his own, doesn't have that much independent autonomy.
KENYON: She did say any success in rolling back Iran's morality police or the heavy press censorship in Iran would be welcomed by many.
SIMON: And, of course, the new president takes office at a time of sharp tensions between Iran and the West. How do we assess that now?
KENYON: Well, yes, tensions over Iran's insistence on violating the limits in the 2015 nuclear agreement have only gotten worse over time. Iran began violating the accord after then President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out in 2018. Tensions haven't eased under President Joe Biden. And, of course, Trump is considered the presumptive Republican candidate in the upcoming election. So the prospects for improvement are unclear, to say the least.
SIMON: NPR's Peter Kenyon in Istanbul, thanks so much.
KENYON: Thanks, Scott.
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