Why Russia-Ukraine War Is So Hard to Win, and How It Might End

Russia’s war in Ukraine, which President Vladimir Putin once hoped to conclude in a few weeks, is grinding through its third year, with neither side able to gain a decisive upper hand. Bringing an end to the conflict — whether through one side’s clear victory, a messy compromise or simply a cessation of hostilities without a final deal — may hinge less on battlefield tactics than on which side exhausts its resources first. With Putin ramping up Russia’s defense production and Ukraine backed by arms from its US and European allies, that may not happen for years. Here’s how each side is prosecuting the war, with some expert views on where it’s all heading.

Russia’s assault in February 2022 targeted major cities including the capital Kyiv. Within weeks, stiff resistance from the Ukrainians and faltering supply lines compelled Moscow to pull its forces from the north and concentrate on securing the Donbas region in Ukraine’s east and retaining territory it had captured in the south. The area under Russian control shrank later that year as Ukraine took back the northeastern Kharkiv region and Kherson in the south.