Younger generations are deleting dating apps and seeking long-term love and IRL meet-cutes. Tinder is struggling because those would-be users don’t want casual hookups; Bumble has missed the mark when it’s sought to expand its customer base beyond millennial women.
“Online dating trends have continued to decelerate industry-wide, showing minimal relief from the recent struggles,” Morgan Stanley analysts Nathan Feather and Brian Nowak wrote in a research note Tuesday.
But they note that two apps are doing well: Hinge and Grindr. Hinge — which is owned by Tinder’s parent company, Match Group, and brands itself as an app for serious relationships — has seen a huge surge in paying users this year. User downloads of the app jumped 14% in the second quarter compared to last year, Feather and Nowak said. That’s a big jump compared to its flailing rivals.
Bumble’s global user downloads, for example, rose a modest 2% in the second quarter — the app’s slowest growth rate ever, the analysts said. Feather and Nowak noted that Bumble’s recent revamp, which included a problematic ad campaign, had minimal impact on user growth. Bumble’s push into non-dating hasn’t helped either.
Tinder is struggling even more, as downloads fell between 11% and 12% in the second quarter. Analysts said the company “needs to rebuild momentum through product evolution” but likely won’t see positive year-over-year user growth until the middle of 2025.
And while Grindr — the biggest dating and hookup app for LGBTQ+ people — hasn’t seen a big increase in users, its stock has soared over the past year. Grindr shares are up nearly 120% from last year and about 32% from last month, when the company laid out an apparently-very-compelling growth plan during its investor day.
“Grindr is a few years older than Tinder or Bumble and we think the recent rejuvenation of the brand demonstrates innovation is still very possible while balancing free user features and monetization,” Feather and Nowak wrote.
Tinder and Hinge-parent Match Group will report its second quarter earnings on August 6. Grindr will announce second quarter results on August 12, and Bumble the following day.