The major benchmarks were on the upside with the Nasdaq leading the way, up more than 2%, amid a surge in semiconductor stocks. Investors await the 2 pm press release from the Federal Reserve on interest rates.

The stock market tried its best to rally on July 29, but with major EPS reports, a Fed decision, and an employment report looming, higher prices attracted sellers and the major indices finished flat. The market will either continue lower in the near term or the pullback will end and new highs are just around the corner. We would bet on the former, as there is no indication from the recent price action of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 that the selling is over. While the tech-heavy indices, industries, and mega caps have worked off overbought momentum conditions on a daily and weekly basis, we have not yet cycled into oversold territory on a daily basis. Do we have to? Absolutely not -- but it probably would be healthy. The last time Technology indices/stocks were oversold on a daily basis was on April 19 -- but just barely, with the 14-day relative strength index reaching 30. The last time tech was oversold on a weekly basis was in mid-2022 -- and prior to that, during the pandemic. Long-term relative strength leadership rarely cycles into oversold territory on a weekly or monthly basis except during mega meltdowns and crashes. So there is a smell of panic in Technology land as the 'can't miss' semiconductor stocks are stinking it up. But at least the money fleeing those stocks is being moved into other areas of the market. The NYSE, Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P 500 equal weight, the S&P MidCap 400, the Russell 2000, and the S&P Small Cap 600 continue to catch a bid -- with most remaining near all-time highs. As of this writing, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX $220.58) has cratered almost 17% over the 14 sessions, its largest decline in that time period since June 2022 (which was during a tough bear market for Information Technology). There is a cluster of support near $200, which includes the last low in April, trendline support off the lows since October 2022, and a 38.2% retracement of the bull market. Distribution days on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the SOXX continue to add up as we count seven on both ETFs over the past 14 days.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Earnings news continues as the big driver today. All the action is mostly in individual stocks reacting to whether last quarter was positive or negative, plus any intel on outlook. The major indices are not showing any big moves, but at midday the Nasdaq is showing signs of weakening. The 2-day Fed meeting starts today with a rate decision coming tomorrow and more importantly, Chairman Powell's press conference that follows.

For a second week, we have a bearish pop in the insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research. The short-term data was particularly bearish on the NYSE, with the Vickers NYSE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio coming in at 11.87, up from 8.68 last week and representing its highest one-week reading since February 2023. Meanwhile, transaction volume remains very low because of earnings-season restrictions and stock indices are still in the area of all-time highs. But volatility is on the upswing (the VIX has moved higher by about 30% in the past few weeks), with political thunderbolts, technology meltdowns, ongoing military conflicts, non-stop interest-rate drama, and now August just ahead (the slowest trading month of the year, but when illiquid markets can add to volatility). Who can blame any investor -- an insider or a 'normal' trader - from taking a cautious stance? But we will keep an eye on the now two-week bearish burst from insiders, with particular interest in how the trend develops/diminishes as earnings season moves towards completion. On a sector basis, selling by insiders last week was greatest in Financials, with shares valued at $837 million sold versus less than $5 million bought, followed by Healthcare ($30 million sold). Selling was also evident in Industrials, Energy, and Real Estate. Meanwhile, buying outpaced selling in Consumer Staples and Information Technology. This week, analysts at Vickers highlighted insider transactions of interest at Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB) and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC).

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

It's Christmas in July on Wall Street, the board is red and green. It's a heavy news week that will impact both overall markets and individual stocks. There's a Fed rate decision coming on Wednesday, though odds are at 99% for no rate move. The key Jobs report is due on Friday. And there's a mountain of earnings from many corporate giants.

Monday Tee Up: Fed, Jobs, Earnings This week features more earnings from corporate giants, key jobs data, and a Fed rate meeting. It doesn't get much busier than that, especially for a week in the heat of summer. But spoiler alert on the Fed: no one thinks a rate move is coming this week and odds are at zero. Last week, the markets were again volatile. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 0.8%, the S&P 500 lost 0.8%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1%. Year to date, the DJIA is higher by nearly 8%, the S&P is up 14%, and the Nasdaq is higher by 15%. On the economic calendar, the Federal Reserve rate decision comes on Wednesday and economists expect no movement. As usual, analysts will dissect what Chairman Powell says in the press conference. Odds are high for a rate cut in September, so Wall Street will be looking for verification that the Fed is leaning in that direction. On Friday, the important July jobs report is due. In June, Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 206,000. Argus sees that declining to 185,000 for July. The unemployment rate was 4.1% in June. We expect no change for July. Meanwhile, Job Openings, Consumer Confidence, and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ADP Private Employment report is due out, and on Thursday, ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending hit the tape. On the earnings calendar, Monday brings news from McDonald's. On Tuesday, Microsoft, Advanced Micro Devices, Procter & Gamble, Pfizer, Merck, and Starbucks report; on Wednesday, Meta, Qualcomm, Boeing, Altria, and Kraft Heinz; on Thursday, Apple, Amazon, Moderna, Booking Holdings, and Coinbase; and on Friday, Chevron and Exxon Mobil. Earnings so far have been coming in 12.1% higher this quarter than a year ago, and 41% of S&P 500 companies have reported. Expectations are for earnings growth of 8%-12% for 2Q. This follows 8% growth in 1Q and 10% in 4Q23. At Argus, we expect EPS for all of 2024 to come in roughly 8%-9% better than last year. Last week featured good news on inflation and economic growth. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index showed that inflation slowed to 2.5% in June versus 2.6% in May. Core PCE didn't budge, sticking at 2.6%. The initial reading for second-quarter GDP came in at 2.8%, a big jump from 1.4% in 1Q. Mortgage rates ticked up a hair to 6.78% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices fell 3 cents to $3.47 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 3Q and calls for expansion of 2.8%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator forecasts 3.01% for CPI in July. After this week's Fed rate decision, the next one is in mid-September -- and odds at 99% for a cut at that meeting. Of that, 88% expect a 25-basis-point (BPS) cut, while 11% expect a 50 bps cut. As the probability is so high for a rate cut at the September meeting, odds are at 68% for a second cut in November, but a higher 98% for that second cut to take place on December 18. All of this data is according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The metals have taken it on the chin since July 16, with the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD $218.40) falling over 5% in just a few days. The iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV $25.40) has dropped over 11% since July 11 and is off 13% since its May 21 peak. SLV has retraced almost 50% of its sharp move higher from late February until its May 20 intraday high. The price action in GLD is particularly alarming as its recent breakout to all-time highs turned out to be false. Generally, that means a trip back to the lower part of the most-recent range, in this case to the $211/$212 region. The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied since July 16, but not by much, while Treasury yields have jumped a bit. We still believe that GLD will have another big run to the upside (as well as SLV), this after the current pause/consolidation is complete. The Commitment of Traders (COT) data is very bearish for both metals and has not improved since the metals started to correct. A 38.2% retracement for GLD lands right at the bottom of its recent range, while a 61.8% giveback targets $201. The rising 200-day exponential is at $204. SLV has support at $25, and after that at $24. The other metal that has seen a more dramatic decline is copper. Copper has been smashed, falling from $5.20 on May 20 to $4.08 early Thursday afternoon -- a 22% decline. It has retraced over 61.8% of its large rally from late October until May. But let's not forget that copper rose from $3.66 on February 9 to its recent $5.20 high, basically in a straight line. The COT data, which was bullish early this year, is now very bearish. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Stocks closed mixed on Thursday. The Dow edged higher, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell following a better-than-expected GDP report. Ahead of the Friday's June reading of the PCE and the Michigan sentiment survey, stocks are volatile and likely to end the week with losses.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

Market Turmoil as Election Weighs In mid-July, the stock market, seemingly in solid shape for the year to date, experienced its worst week since April 2024. The selloff followed the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump, yet the two events seem oddly uncoupled. As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pitched lower, most investors reiterated their belief that stocks had been overdue for a correction and that the selling was healthy rather than triggered by exogenous events. The election experienced an even bigger shift with President Biden's decision to exit the race rather than run for a second term. This decision was certainly not a shock and, as the president's poll numbers had deteriorated. So far, investors have greeted two significant events in the election with a muted response, as the focus remains mainly on the Fed's forthcoming meetings. The Market in July The S&P 500 had been up 18.8% for the year at its closing peak on 7/16/24. That was two full trading days (Monday and Tuesday) after the assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday 7/13/24 -- further contributing to the sense that the subsequent selling in stocks was unrelated to the events of that day. As of the market close on 7/19/24, the S&P 500 was up 15.4% year to date on a capital-appreciation basis and 16.4% on a total-return basis (with dividends). Before 7/13/24, the market already had undergone a shift in tone. Investors had started rotating away from the so-called 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, first remaining within other Information Technology sector niches and stocks and then gradually broadening out to other areas while taking tech profits. As of early in July, the Russell 2000 was little changed for the year. Between July 9 and July 16, the small-cap index exploded higher by about 11%. On the blue-chip front, the DJIA outperformed the broader S&P 500 during the mid-July selloff week, edging 0.2% higher while the S&P 500 was down 2.3%. And for the previous month, the Dow's 2.9% gain eclipsed the 0.7% advance for the S&P 500. Also on a total-return basis, the Nasdaq has maintained its advantage over blue chips, with an 18.6% total gain in the year to date. But the Nasdaq's margin over the broad market is uncommonly narrow in a year of double-digit gains and growth leadership. In 2023, for example, the Nasdaq's 43.4% capital gain beat the S&P 500's 24.2% gain by almost 20 points. And in 2020, the Nasdaq's 43.6% gain more than doubled the S&P 500's 16.3% advance. Also as of 7/16/24, the DJIA was up 8.0% on a total-return basis. The Dow was up 1.1% year to date as recently as the final day of May, and much of its gain in 2024 has come in the month of July. Growth stocks continue to beat value stocks, but the difference between the Large Cap Wilshire Growth and Value indices has tightened from a gulf to a gap. At the sector level, Information Technology (up 27.0% at 7/16/24) and Communication Services (up 23.5%) have maintained their leadership over the broad market. In an encouraging sign of improving breadth, five other sectors -- Financial, Utilities, Energy, Consumer Staples, and Industrials -- are up 10%-15%. And Healthcare is right behind, with a 9.4% gain. Even Real Estate, the lone negative sector through the first half of 2024, has pivoted to a 3% year-to-date gain. According to Argus' Chartered Market Technician Mark Arbeter, the major indices worked off extreme overbought conditions in the selloff week. But that came at the cost of breaking uptrends in 14-day relative strength and daily moving-average convergence-divergence. The S&P 500 during the selloff week broke below its 21-day exponential moving average for the first time since April 2024. Despite the pullback, the market's uptrend off the lows from early May remains intact. The high-beta Nasdaq 100 remains a bit more fragile, having broken below its May lows. Many Nasdaq 100 component stocks are at or below 50-day trendlines. If many of these issues break decisively below support, rotation away from the year's leading sectors could persist for some time. A President Exits the Campaign Following the announcement that a current president would not seek reelection, the S&P 500 surged by 2.1% and the index finished the year up over 15%. But we not talking about President Biden. On March 31, 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson stunned the nation when he announced he would not seek, nor would he accept, his party's nomination to be president for a second full term. He had come to office upon the assassination of President John Kennedy in November 1963, and then defeated Republican Senator Barry Goldwater a year later in the November 1964 election. Over half a century later, the reason President Johnson chose not to run remains a topic for debate. Officially, President Johnson indicated he could not conduct the war in Vietnam and actively campaign at the same time. Political pundits at the time pointed to Johnson's deep unpopularity as hundreds of U.S. soldiers were dying weekly in Vietnam. Many believed Johnson would lose to the Republican candidate Richard Nixon or to one of the anti-war candidates, such as Eugene McCarthy or Robert Kennedy, from within his own party. Following Robert Kennedy's assassination and a Chicago convention marked by riots and turmoil, Hubert Humphrey became the Democratic candidate despite not having won a single primary (he did win some state caucuses). Turning back to current events, should Vice President Kamala Harris become the nominee, as seems probable, she most likely will continue to promote the Democratic Party's principles. That should, for the most part, allow the growing number of undecided citizens the opportunity to cast their vote in a fair fight that is based on more-typical agenda considerations. Shifting Perceptions of the Fed Timeline As we prepared this publication, the Democratic Party was seeking to unite behind a new candidate; President Trump continued to campaign; and investors mainly have sidelined the political turbulence. The focus for investors, as it has been all year, remains the timeline for the Fed's widely anticipated first interest-rate cut in four years. For the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a less than 3% probability that the first rate cut will come in July. After no meeting in August, the FOMC meets again on September 24-25. The FedWatch Tool indicates a 94% probability of a single quarter-point rate cut at the September meeting. For most of 2024, investors had been anticipating no change in Fed monetary policy at the November FOMC meeting. But the November 7-8 meeting falls two days after the November 5 elections date; and that earlier thinking may be changing. As of 7/16/24, target rate probabilities for the November FOMC meeting are 1.7% for no change from the current 5.25%-5.50% tendency; 43.1% for 5.00-5.25%; and 53.8% for 4.75%-5.00%. For the final FOMC meeting of 2024, to be held on December 18-19, target rate probabilities are 6.8% for 5.00%-5.25%; 45.1% for 4.75%-5.00%; and 46.7% for 4.50%-4.75%. That means the market now sees a nearly 50% chance that the Fed as of year-end 2024 will have cut the Fed funds rate not two but three times, for a total 75-basis-point rate reduction. Conclusion Elsewhere, the economy continues to grow at a low-single-digit rate consistent with our 1.7% GDP growth forecast for 2024. The consumer remains under pressure from high interest rates and the overhang of high prices. The housing sector is operating at 60% of past peak levels. Unemployment remains low by historical standards, and wages continue to grow faster than inflation. The second-quarter earnings season is unfolding about as expected, with prospects for high-single-digit to low-double-digit percentage growth on an annual basis. All of that is about status quo compared to the data and forecasts of recent months. Some things have changed, of course. At mid-year 2024, the presidential election featured Donald Trump versus Joe Biden. One of those candidates came within a fraction of being assassinated; the other is no longer in the race. The market does not seem to be giving any of that much attention, likely due to the subtle but undeniable shift in the Fed's perceived timeline.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower that year. Stocks have recovered, but gains mostly have been driven by a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains an issue. With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? Many market-watchers attuned to risk pay attention to the VIX Volatility Index. In 2022, as the bear roared, that index soared above 30, which is substantially higher than the normal risk environment, which is characterized by an average VIX reading of 20. Current VIX readings are in the 15 range, which is more characteristic of a bull market. As the market fluctuates, we note that investors exit equities at their own peril. That's because long-term returns from stocks consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various periods. Argus has developed a sophisticated approach to Min Vol investing built around our proprietary quality and safety screens.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday, as investors preferred not to front-run some of the second-quarter EPS reports from mega-cap IT names, especially as many have had huge advances since late October. The mega-cap indices saw fractional losses, while the standout, again, was the small-cap world. The Russell 2000 (IWM) rose 1.1% and the S&P SmallCap 600 (SML) tacked on 0.7%. Both ETFs are points away from recent closing highs. Checking in on recent improvement in the internal data of the SML ($1,411), 75% of the stocks are above their 200-day exponential average (EMA) as of last week, up from 44% in mid-June. During the last major bottom in October, that had dropped all the way to 20%. SML issues above their 50-day exponential has spiked to a recent high of 87% from just 27% in mid-June. This improvement in breadth also occurred late last year and was followed by a 6.5-month trading range. We see overbought daily momentum stats today that are similar to those from late December. The SML advance-decline line has jumped to its highest level since early 2023 and is only several hundred issues from its all-time high in June 2021, while price is only 60 points from its all-time high of 1,466 in November 2021. The relative strength for the index versus the S&P 500 has outperformed since only July 10, so we obviously would prefer to see a longer stretch of this relative strength. But then again, it has to start somewhere. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.