We are reducing our second quarter 2024 forecast for GDP growth to 1.8% from 1.9%, primarily because residential fixed investment (housing) is poised to detract from economic growth after making a strong contribution in 1Q. We made a small increase to our expectation for election-year spending by state and local governments that keeps our full-year 2024 growth forecast at 1.7%. The key market-moving debates are on the persistence of inflation, consumers' capacity to drive two-thirds of a $28 trillion economy, and whether housing can continue to supplement economic growth without lower interest rates. The more-specific debate on consumers is whether softness in the 1Q GDP report is the start of a meaningful slowdown or whether spending is just normalizing after a strong run. Our outlook for the consumer is about the same as it was a month ago. We are more optimistic that inflation will moderate towards the Fed's 2% target, but have become more concerned about housing. We are, however, reducing our estimate of 2Q Personal Consumption Expenditures by 10 basis points to 2.3%. We now expect residential fixed investment to fall 2.2% versus our previous expectation for a 0.7% decline. Mortgage rates stuck near 7% are straining affordability and forcing prospective buyers to the sidelines. The news on inflation was encouraging in June. We are reducing our estimate of core PCE inflation in 2Q to 2.8% from 3.0%, which would be a nice declin