Early last week, we talked about the broadening stock market, but noted that the expansion in outperformance remained within Information Technology. We have seen a pause in the leading semiconductor stocks, but a pop in computer hardware and software. We also have seen nice short-term moves in banks, with some breaking out of bullish bases. But it's the semis we are worried about for a number of reasons. The industry has been on fire, soaring by 31% since April 19; by 79% since October 2023; and by 165% since October 2022. There have been a few decent pullbacks along the way, which is positive as each pullback creates a bullish base and a platform that turns into chart support on the way down. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is 70% above its 200-week exponential average. That was exceeded only after the rebound from the pandemic, so we are in rarefied air. While the S&P 500, S&P 100, Invesco S&P Top 50 (XLG), Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all have made all-time highs over the past five days, the SOXX has done so by a mere $0.31. The Van Eck Vectors Semi ETF (SMH), the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductor Index ($DJUSSC), and "King Nvidia" have not. The SOXX
SPGI
ANET, VLTO, GEV, CL, SPGI, NLY, PINS, RHHBY
HWM
IQV
PYPL, GLW, PEG, SAP, AGNC, ITW, BMY, HWM, IQV, MCD, NSC