Big Tech earnings start this week, with a broad range of companies reporting. As well, key inflation data is due as is an update on GDP. Last week, markets were volatile and there was a theme of rotation out of Information Technology and into small caps. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.7% for the week, the S&P 500 lost 2%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.7%. Year to date, the Dow is higher by 7%, the S&P is up 15%, and the Nasdaq is 18% ahead. On the economic calendar, Friday is the big day, with fresh inflation data. Economists are looking for more evidence that inflation is tracking lower. If it is, that should help build the case for a Fed rate cut. This week, the data comes in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE). In May, both PCE and Core PCE came in at 2.6%. We expect both to slow to 2.4% for June. In other economic news, Existing Home Sales data will be reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, New Home Sales come out. On Thursday, GDP and Durable Goods Orders hit the tape. And on Friday, Personal Income and Personal Spending will be updated. On the earnings calendar, Monday brings news from Verizon. On Tuesday, Alphabet, Tesla, Comcast, Coca-Cola, GE Aerospace, General Motors, Philip Morris, UPS, and Lockheed Martin. On Wednesday, IBM, AT&T, Chipotle, and Ford. On Thursday, Northrop Grumman, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Juniper Networks, AstraZeneca, and Union Pacific. And on Friday, 3M, Bristol Myers Squibb, Colgate-Palmolive, and Charter Communications. Earnings are coming in 11.1% higher this quarter than a year ago, but only 14% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far. Expectations are for 8%-12% earnings growth in the second quarter. This follows 8% growth in 1Q and 10% in 4Q23. At Argus, we forecast that full-year 2024 EPS will come in 8%-9% better than last year. Last week, mortgage rates fell 12 basis points to 6.77% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices rose a penny to $3.50 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 2Q and calls for expansion of 2.7%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator forecasts 3.01% for July CPI. The next Fed rate decision is on July 31, with odds at 4% for a cut. Then in mid-September, there is a big jump in odds for a cut, to 98%. That spike follows that recent news that inflation is tracking down and the labor market is showing some weakness. As the probability is so high for a rate cut at the September meeting, the odds have jumped to 60% for a second cut in November. In December 18, odds increase to 94% for that second cut. All of this data is according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Based in New York, Omnicom is a leading global advertising, marketing, and corporate communications company. It serves more than 5,000 clients in over 100 countries, and almost half of revenues come from overseas operations. Agency brands include BBDO Worldwide, DDB Worldwide, TBWA Worldwide, integer, and FleishmanHillard. The company has approximately 76,000 employees and is a component of the S&P 500.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower that year. Stocks have recovered and a new bull market has started, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains an issue and the Federal Reserve has yet to lower rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower that year. Stocks have recovered and a new bull market has started, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains an issue and the Federal Reserve has yet to lower rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.