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Things are starting to get ugly, with a smell of panic in Technology land as the "can't miss" semiconductor stocks are stinking it up. But at least the money fleeing those stocks is being moved into other areas of the market. The NYSE, Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P 500 equal weight, the S&P MidCap 400, the Russell 2000, and the S&P Small Cap 600 continue to catch a bid -- with most remaining near all-time highs. We had mixed results after the bell, with MSFT down 2.6% and AMD up 9%. MSFT had been hanging near its 100-day average while AMD had been destroyed in recent months. The most-loved semi, NVDA ($103.73) fell another 7% Tuesday and has given back 23.5%. But the stock is still up massively from $11 in October 2022. In our July 25 comment, we proffered that those looking to add/start a position in NVDA should note that there is an unfilled gap at $106.50, the 21-week exponential at $104, and another unfilled gap as well as the last breakout area at $96. So with pain comes opportunity -- and we have now entered a potential region of support. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX $220.58) has cratered almost 17% over the past 14 sessions, its largest decline in that time period since June 2022 (which was during a tough bear market for Information Technology). There is a cluster of support near $200, which includes the last low in April, trendline support off the lows since October 2022, and a 38.2% retracement of the bull market. Distribution days on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the SOXX continue to add up, as we count seven on both ETFs over the past 14 days. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

After very nice advances in gold (GLD), silver (SLV), and copper (CPER) from February/March until May, the metals complex cycled into extreme momentum/overbought territory on both daily and weekly timeframes and then pulled back. We have been waiting patiently over the past six to seven weeks for signs of an attractive reentry point. We also wanted to see signs that the U.S. Dollar Index (USD) was topping, as a weakening greenback generally is a favorable backdrop for the metals. All three broke nicely higher on Wednesday, gaining 1% to 3% and breaking their downtrends off highs from the second half of May. At the same time, the dollar has dropped the past three trading days and traced out a lower high, but remains in an uptrend off the late-December lows. We had mentioned that the USD COT data recently deteriorated after being dollar bullish since late last year. GLD held in the best during the pullback, and has traded in a sideways consolidation, while SLV and CPER were hit harder. GLD didn't retrace even a minor 38.2% of its rally from mid-February and never was near daily oversold territory. A range break above $225 could send GLD up to $240 or more, and eventually a lot higher based on the massive base from 2011 until early 2024. SLV retraced 38.2% of its rally and held key trendline support off the secondary low in March. A break over $29/$30 would open the door for a possible jump to the mid- to high-$30s region. CPER generally is a wildcard (and one that is highly volatile), but a break over $31 could also lead to a move to the mid- to high-$30s region. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)