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Iowa State Fair Straw Poll

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Iowa State Fair Straw Poll[a] is an informal poll for presidential and Iowa congressional candidates. The poll has been conducted by the Iowa Secretary of State with results posted to their website.[1][2] It was begun in 2015 after the Republican Party of Iowa announced it would no longer hold its official Iowa Straw Poll given that a majority of presidential candidates declined to participate.[3]

2015 Results

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In 2015, the State Fair poll found Donald Trump to be the most favored GOP candidate among 677 votes cast, defeating Ben Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas). Cruz went on to win the Iowa GOP caucuses, defeating Trump by 4 percent. On the Democratic side, out of a little more than 1,000 votes total, Hillary Clinton was the most popular Democrat defeating Bernie Sanders 49 percent to 45 percent.[4] Clinton went on to defeat Sanders in the Democratic state primary by less than 1 percent.[5]

Democratic

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Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[6]

Candidate Straw poll results Actual caucus results Difference
Place Votes Percentage Place Percentage Place Percentage
Hillary Clinton 1 1,338 49.19% 1 49.84% -- -0.65%
Bernie Sanders 2 1,217 44.17% 2 49.59% -- +5.42%
Martin O'Malley 3 127 4.67% 3 0.54% -- -4.13%
Lincoln Chafee 4 20 0.74% Withdrawn
Jim Webb 5 18 0.66% Withdrawn

Republican

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Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[7]

Candidate Straw poll results Actual caucus results Difference
Place Votes Percentage Place Votes Percentage Place Percentage
Donald Trump 1 1,830 29.91% 2 45,427 24.30% -1 -5.61%
Ben Carson 2 1,185 19.37% 4 17,395 9.30% -2 -10.07%
Ted Cruz 3 543 8.88% 1 43,165 27.64% +2 +14.24%
Carly Fiorina 4 459 7.50% 7 3,485 1.86% -3 -5.64%
Marco Rubio 5 370 6.05% 3 43,165 23.12% +2 +17.07%
Scott Walker 6 324 5.30% Withdrawn
Jeb Bush 7 312 5.10% 6 5,238 2.80% +1 -2.30%
Bobby Jindal 8 225 3.68% Withdrawn
Mike Huckabee 9 188 3.07% 9 3,345 1.79% -- -1.28%
Rand Paul 10 182 2.97% 5 8,481 4.54% +5 +1.57%
John Kasich 11 160 2.62% 8 3,474 1.86% +3 -0.76%
Rick Perry 12 137 2.24% Withdrawn
Chris Christie 13 66 1.08% 10 3,284 1.76% +3 -0.68%
Rick Santorum 14 65 1.06% 11 1,783 0.95% +3 -0.11%
Lindsey Graham 15 39 0.64% Withdrawn
George Pataki 16 24 0.39% Withdrawn
Mark Everson 17 8 0.13% Withdrawn
Jim Gilmore 18 1 0.02% 12 12 0.01% +6 -0.01%

2019 Results

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In 2019, the State Fair saw a record-setting attendance of just under 1.2 million people over the course of its 11-day run. The Straw Poll result was published on August 19, 2019. On the Republican side, in total 1,976 votes were cast for 2 candidates. On the Democratic side, there were 24 candidates listed in the presidential poll and 2,118 votes cast.[2][8]

Democratic

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Candidate Straw poll results Actual caucus results Difference
Place Votes Percentage Place Votes Percentage Place Percentage
Joe Biden 1 374 17.7% 4 26,291 14.9% -3 -2.8%
Elizabeth Warren 2 364 17.2% 3 32,589 18.5% -1 +1.3%
Pete Buttigieg 3 292 13.8% 2 37,572 21.3% +1 +7.5%
Bernie Sanders 4 215 10.2% 1 43,581 24.7% +3 +14.5%
Kamala Harris 5 178 8.4% Withdrawn
Cory Booker 6 129 6.1% Withdrawn
Tulsi Gabbard 7 101 4.8% 9 341 0.2% -2 -4.6%
Amy Klobuchar 8 73 3.5% 5 22,454 12.7% +3 +9.2%
Tom Steyer 9 60 2.8% 7 3,061 1.7% +2 -1.1%
Andrew Yang 10 58 2.7% 6 8,914 5.1% +3 +2.4%
Beto O'Rourke 11 46 2.2% Withdrawn
Marianne Williamson 12 33 1.6% Withdrawn
Steve Bullock 13 33 1.6% Withdrawn
Julian Castro 14 32 1.5% Withdrawn
John Delaney 15 26 1.2% Withdrawn
Kirsten Gillibrand 16 22 1.0% Withdrawn
Michael Bennet 17 19 0.9% 10 164 1.0% +7 -0.1%
Bill de Blasio 18 18 0.9% Withdrawn
John Hickenlooper 19 14 0.7% Withdrawn
Jay Inslee 20 11 0.5% Withdrawn
Tim Ryan 21 7 0.3% Withdrawn
Seth Moulton 22 5 0.2% Withdrawn
Joe Sestak 23 4 0.2% Withdrawn
Wayne Messam 24 4 0.2% Withdrawn

Republican

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Candidate Straw poll results Actual caucus results Difference
Place Votes Percentage Place Votes Percentage Place Percentage
Donald Trump 1 1,902 96.26% 1 31,421 97.14% -- -0.88%
Bill Weld 2 74 3.74% 2 425 1.31% -- -2.43%

2023 Results

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Democratic

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Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[9]

Candidate Straw poll results
Place Votes Percentage
Joe Biden 1 732 66.97%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 2 205 18.76%
Marianne Williamson 3 156 14.27%

Republican

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Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[9]

Candidate Straw poll results Actual caucus results Difference
Place Votes Percentage Place Votes Percentage Place Percentage
Donald Trump 1 1,501 42.47% 1 56,260 51.01% -- +8.54%
Ron DeSantis 2 541 15.31% 2 23,420 21.23% -- +5.92%
Tim Scott 3 392 11.09% Withdrawn
Vivek Ramaswamy 4 331 9.37% 4 8,449 7.66% -- -1.71%
Perry Johnson 5 220 6.23% Withdrawn
Nikki Haley 6 133 3.76% 3 21,085 19.12% +3 +15.36%
Asa Hutchinson 7 120 3.40% 6 191 0.17% +1 -3.23%
Mike Pence 8 97 2.74% Withdrawn
Doug Burgum 9 96 2.72% Withdrawn
Will Hurd 10 37 1.05% Withdrawn
Ryan Binkley 11 27 0.76% 5 774 0.70% +6 -0.06%
Francis Suarez 12 23 0.65% Withdrawn
Larry Elder 13 16 0.45% Withdrawn

Libertarian

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Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[9]

Candidate Straw poll results
Place Votes Percentage
Chase Oliver 1 (tied) 27 18.88%
Raymond Dude Wagner 1 (tied) 27 18.88%
Aaron Avouris 3 (tied) 11 7.69%
Melissa Biondi 3 (tied) 11 7.69%
Hugo Valdez Garcia 5 10 6.99%
David Reed DeSilva 6 (tied) 8 5.59%
Jon Stewart 6 (tied) 8 5.59%
David Dunlap 8 (tied) 6 4.20%
Jacob Hornberger 8 (tied) 6 4.20%
Kevin Babicz 10 (tied) 5 3.50%
Charles Griffith Ferry 10 (tied) 5 3.50%
Antonio Gagnon 12 (tied) 4 2.80%
Mike ter Maat 12 (tied) 4 2.80%
Russell DeLeon 14 (tied) 3 2.10%
Lars Mapstead 14 (tied) 3 2.10%
Joshua Rodriguez 16 (tied) 2 1.40%
Nathan J. Vaught Jr. 16 (tied) 2 1.40%
Seymour Art Lee 18 1 0.70%
Beau Lindsey 19 (tied) 0 0.00%
Kevin Tucker 19 (tied) 0 0.00%

Notes

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  1. ^ Also referred to as the Iowa Straw Poll, though that more properly is the name for the poll conducted from 1979–2011 by the Iowa State Republican Party.

References

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  1. ^ "On the Stump: The Polls are coming! The Polls are coming!". Toledo Chronicle, Tama News-Herald. August 15, 2015. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  2. ^ a b Pate, Paul (August 19, 2019). "2019 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll Results". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved August 20, 2019.
  3. ^ "It's over: the end of the Iowa Straw Poll". NBC News. June 12, 2015. Retrieved June 12, 2015.
  4. ^ Richardson, Bradford (August 17, 2015). "Iowa State Fair attendees pick Sanders over Clinton". www.thehill.com. The Hill. Retrieved 2015-08-20.
  5. ^ "Election 2016 - Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved March 28, 2016.
  6. ^ "State Fair Poll Results". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved October 22, 2019.
  7. ^ "State Fair Poll Results". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved October 22, 2019.
  8. ^ "2019 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll results". Siouxland News. August 19, 2019.
  9. ^ a b c "2023 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved August 15, 2023.