2024 hurricane season brings new risks: WESH long-range forecast reveals crucial 'hot spots' for Florida

UNTIL THE START OF HURRICANE SEASON. CHECK OUT YOUR SCREEN HERE. JUST 25 DAYS, IT MEANS NOW IS THE TIME FOR US ALL TO PREPARE AND THIS WEEK IS HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK AND JUST IN TIME TO GET READY FOR THIS YEAR’S BUSY SEASON. METEOROLOGIST ERIC BURRIS HAS BEEN LOOKING AGAIN AT HER HURRICANE PATTERNS, AND HE TELLS US SOME OF THE PREDICTED DATES FOR THE STORMS ARE CHANGING. HEY GUYS, GOOD MORNING. RIGHT, WITH HURRICANE SEASON RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER, I WANTED TO BRING IN MY PARTNER IN CRIME. WHEN IT COMES TO LONG RANGE HURRICANE FORECASTING. THIS IS SIS STATION WJCL CHIEF METEOROLOGIST JEREMY NELSON UP IN SAVANNAH. JEREMY, GOOD MORNING. THANKS FOR HANGING OUT WITH US. THIS MORNING. HEY, THANKS FOR. LETTING ME HANG OUT WITH YOU AND ALL THE CREW AT WESH. ALL RIGHT. SO LET’S JUST START OFF BY UPDATING WHERE WE ARE. THIS IS OUR HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST. WE ISSUED IT ON MARCH THE FIRST. WE ARE NOT UPDATING ANY OF THESE NUMBERS. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE SEASON. YEAH. FOR MAY REALLY IS WHEN YOU’RE GOING TO START SEEING A LOT MORE HURRICANE SEASON FORECASTS COME IN. WE USED OUR LONG RANGE FORECAST METHOD THAT’S BEEN SORT OF TRIED AND TRUE TO US, AS WE’VE HAD TREMENDOUS SUCCESS WITH IT. SO WE ARE, AS YOU CAN SEE, AND PROBABLY EXPECT, UH, FORECASTING IN ABOVE AVERAGE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. RIGHT. SO IN ADDITION TO THAT, WE’RE EXPECTING NOT ONLY ABOVE AVERAGE NUMBERS, BUT A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE NUMBER OF HURRICANES. AND MAJOR HURRICANES. SO MUCH LIKE COLORADO STATE, WE ARE EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE SEASON. BUT ANOTHER THING THAT WE DO IN OUR LONG RANGE FORECASTING IS WE PUT OUT HOT SPOTS AND RIGHT HERE, KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF HURRICANE SEASON, WE’RE NOT CHANGING THIS AT ALL. STILL EXPECTING THE GULF COAST TO PROBABLY GET VERY, VERY ACTIVE THIS YEAR. YEAH, ESPECIALLY THAT NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. WE NOTICED, UH, SORT OF THAT PATTERN, THE STORM TRENDS, THE TRACKS WERE REALLY FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND THEN DOWN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. UH, WE ALSO HAVE KIND OF ANOTHER HOT SPOT THERE. UH, ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE, ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. SO WE THINK THOSE ARE THE AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO A LANDFALL THIS SEASON. NOT THE ONLY SPOT, BUT THOSE HAVE A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE ON AVERAGE. YEAH. NO DOUBT. NOW, ONE THING WE HAVE DONE, YOU AND I HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THE DATA QUITE A BIT HERE, JUST BECAUSE HURRICANE SEASON IS RIGHT HERE, WE’VE HAD PLENTY OF TIME TO REALLY DO THE ANALYSIS AND WE HAVE MADE A VERY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENT NOT TO OUR FORECAST AT ALL, BUT RATHER THE DATES. WE THINK THAT THESE SYSTEMS ARE GOING TO BE IMPACTING US. YEAH. AND THE ONLY REASON WE DID THIS, WE WANT TO GIVE PEOPLE SORT OF THE THE MOST PRECISE, UH, TAKE ON OUR HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST. SO AGAIN, OUR FORECAST NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED. HURRICANES, MAJOR HURRICANES, NAMED STORMS, HOT SPOTS, UH, SORT OF UH, THE EXACT TIMELINE, THOUGH, OF WHEN SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ARRIVE. THIS IS, UM, SORT OF JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. RIGHT? SO THE FIRST THING PROBABLY CYCLING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WOULD BE THE GULF TO CAROLINAS LOW. YEAH, YEAH. AND THAT ONE, UH, IN SOME PARTS OF THE PATTERN, IT’S JUST A LOW RAINMAKER AND A FRONT FOR THE SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO FLORIDA. THIS WAS REALLY, UM, WE NOTICED IT. I THINK IT WAS AROUND LIKE HALLOWEEN LAST YEAR. YEAH. UM, SO WE’LL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. UH, WE’RE NOT EXPECTING ANY TROPICAL ACTIVITY THIS TIME AROUND. THIS WILL BE A RAINMAKER FOR SOME. AND THEN A BIG PUSH OF COOLER AIR. YEAH. SO, JUNE END KIND OF MID-AUGUST, AND THEN LATE SEPTEMBER INTO EARLY OCTOBER IS WHEN THAT RECYCLES THIS. JEREMY, THIS PART OF THE PATTERN IS ONE WE REALLY DO THINK IS GOING TO BE A BIGGER INFLUENCE, AT LEAST HERE IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. AND THE NEXT TIME THAT IT LOOPS AROUND SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ALREADY INDICATING IT BY LATE MAY. AND THEN OF COURSE, COMING BACK IN, UH, AROUND AROUND MID-JULY AND LATE AUGUST AND ONE THING WE WANT TO STRESS WITH THIS, THIS WAS A PRETTY COMPLEX PART OF THE PATTERN THAT WAS IN MID NOVEMBER. IT WAS MULTIPLE LOWS IN THE GULF. UH, ONE SORT OF BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW THAT HEADS TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS HAS BEEN A PRETTY HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM FOR YOUR STATE. YEAH, NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. AND THEN THE LAST ONE, SOME LONG RANGE MODELS ALREADY HINTING THAT THE POTENTIAL OF THIS IN EARLY JUNE, JUNE 6TH THROUGH THE 10TH, OUR NEW DATES ARE KIND OF SHOWING SOMETHING PERHAPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE JULY AND INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. BUT AGAIN, THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT THAT THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE MAY SHOW SOMETHING FROM THE CARIBBEAN LIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REALLY, UH, ONCE WE GET INTO THE BACK HALF OF MAY INTO JUNE, WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ENOUGH TO SEE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. SO, UH, A LITTLE, MAYBE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WOULD START TO FORM, UH, I THINK IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. AND ESPECIALLY SINCE WE’RE STARTING TO SEE THAT EL NINO FADE. UH, PROBABLY NOT THE LA NINA UNTIL WE GET INTO MAYBE THE BACK HALF OF HURRICANE SEASON, BUT AT LEAST, UH, SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE AS WE GO THROUGH THE SEASON FOR DEVELOPING. AND OF COURSE, YOU CAN ALWAYS GET THE UPDATED FORECAST. WESH DOT COM FORWARD SLASH HURRICANE FORECAST. AND JEREMY AND I EVER EVERY TUESDAY DURING HURRICANE SEASON HOST A LIVE PODCAST OF SORTS ON THE SISTER STATION WJCL SOCIAL PAGES AND ON OUR WESH SOCIAL PAGES. WHAT TIME DO WE DO THAT, MY FRIEND? I BELIEVE THAT’S AT 10 A.M., RIGHT? RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER. GREAT. THANK YOU FOR WAKING UP EARLY WITH US. JEREMY WORKS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DOING THE CHIEF STUFF UP THERE IN SAVANNAH, GEORGIA. JEREMY NELSON, THANK YOU SO MUCH. MY FRIEND. ALL RIGHT. THANKS A LOT, ERIC. SO THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND YOU TO DOWNLOAD THE FREE WESH TWO NEWS APP AND THEN TURN ON THE SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS SO YOU ARE NOTIFI

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is right around the corner, which is why for the last few months I've been working on my own hurricane seasonal forecast. This isn't your standard "X" number of storms style forecast- this is looking at weather patterns to give you an idea of "hot spots" for the season, along with "hot dates" on the calendar, so you can have an idea what the season will look like.Before we look ahead, let's look at how we did last year. In 2023, our forecast accurately predicted where every named storm went, and when they made landfall. Curious how it looked? Here is last years hotspots with actual storm tracks:So- how do we look this year? 2024 Hot SpotsWhat areas are at the greatest risk of seeing a landfalling tropical system in 2024? I have identified a couple of hot spots along the U.S. coast that have a higher than average chance of being directly impacted this hurricane season.The main thing you should notice, is that THIS year Gulf coastlines are looking at above average threats- a big shift from the last few years. I also want to mention the pattern flows-Clearly ALL pointing to the eastern Gulf coast. This is particularly concerning for us Floridians, as it tells me that not only are we under a higher threat for tropical impact, but perhaps the greatest threat I've forecast since beginning these long range outlooks years ago.Now that we've outlined the overall pattern, let's start looking at things storm by storm. We can begin by looking at the part of the pattern most concerning to me- the South Florida part of the pattern.SOUTH FLORIDA STORMFirst spotted in November, this part of the pattern has repeated over and over, showing a clear threat for South Florida, particularly SW Florida.Potential return dates for this part of the pattern include May 23-28, July 9-15, and August 26-September 1Gulf to Carolinas LowFirst spotted around Halloween 2023- this part of our weather pattern showed a storm system crossing through the big bend... through Florida... and then up to the Carolina coastline. I've observed this weather cycle over and over again- and think it's a key part of our 2024 weather pattern.Potential return dates for this part of the pattern include June 24-29, August 10-16, and September 26-October 3.Gulf Coast LowFirst spotted October 11th, and observed several times through- this low formed over the gulf waters, and then started working more eastward. The overall large geographical area of this is because of its observed motion each time, moving east along the Gulf coast.Potential return dates for this part of the pattern include June 6-10, July 23-28, and September 8-14. Number Of StormsFor this year's forecast, we looked deep into the El Nino/La Nina switchover. We're coming off a quick but strong El Nino pattern- shifting to La Nina this late summer-fall. In the five examples we studied in past years (1966, 1973, 1983, 1998, and 2016), there was a clear signal in the overall numbers. For these example years, the number of named storms came down a bit- but there was a greater percentage of storms intensifying into hurricanes and even major hurricanes. Perhaps the idea there to take away is that things that form could get stronger this year, more-so than 'normal' conditions.How is this forecast even possible?As crazy as it sounds, there are many elements that play a role in our forecast puzzle. From sea surface temperatures, to La Niña, and fancy weather terms like 'AO' and 'NAO' you get pieces to the puzzle, BUT, the main thing that helps clear this up and look long range is the LRC.The LRC, or Lezak's Recurring Cycle (named for the meteorologist who discovered it) is a technique that uses the past to predict the future. The term "what goes around comes around" isn't just for life, Lezak discovered this could be applied for weather as well. Before we get into the forecast, let me explain how this all works:The basics of the LRCA unique weather pattern sets up each fall and becomes established.Long-term repeating features are clues to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.Once the weather pattern is set it cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring, and summer.The key to this forecast and using the cycling weather technique is by determining the cycle duration. It ranges year to year from 40-70 days- but once you key in on it, you can forecast the weather through the end of the "LRC year," or about the start of October. This means while it's a great tool, the limitation is that by October 2023 we start setting up a new "LRC year," thus the very end of hurricane season can't be predicted this early.Final ThoughtsFirst and foremost going into any hurricane season, we need to be prepared. Take the time now to be sure your family has a plan in place and a hurricane kit ready to go if a tropical system were to threaten our local area.One question that usually arises is locations outside of the hot spots discussed. These areas still could see tropical activity/landfall this season, but the chances are much closer to average or even below average. An example based on the pattern we identified would be the Texas coast- where chances are average to below average of a landfall this season. In contrast, the gulf coast/Florida west coast is in a hot spot. This length of the Florida coast has an above average chance of a tropical system(s) making landfall during the 2024 hurricane season.These weather patterns represent to me the disturbances with the most potential to produce tropical activity. It's important to keep in mind they are NOT the only features that could produce a tropical systems for the year. Add that the NEW 2024-2025 cycle establishes in October so things will look very different for October and November.All in all, if you have questions regarding the 2024 hurricane season forecast or anything you read here please feel free to contact me via email eburris@hearst.comYou can follow my weather updates on social media...Twitter here and Facebook here.Eric BurrisWESH 2 First Warning MeteorologistRelated content:WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is right around the corner, which is why for the last few months I've been working on my own hurricane seasonal forecast. This isn't your standard "X" number of storms style forecast- this is looking at weather patterns to give you an idea of "hot spots" for the season, along with "hot dates" on the calendar, so you can have an idea what the season will look like.

Before we look ahead, let's look at how we did last year. In 2023, our forecast accurately predicted where every named storm went, and when they made landfall. Curious how it looked? Here is last years hotspots with actual storm tracks:

WESH

So- how do we look this year?

2024 Hot Spots

What areas are at the greatest risk of seeing a landfalling tropical system in 2024? I have identified a couple of hot spots along the U.S. coast that have a higher than average chance of being directly impacted this hurricane season.

WESH

The main thing you should notice, is that THIS year Gulf coastlines are looking at above average threats- a big shift from the last few years. I also want to mention the pattern flows-

WESH

Clearly ALL pointing to the eastern Gulf coast. This is particularly concerning for us Floridians, as it tells me that not only are we under a higher threat for tropical impact, but perhaps the greatest threat I've forecast since beginning these long range outlooks years ago.

Now that we've outlined the overall pattern, let's start looking at things storm by storm. We can begin by looking at the part of the pattern most concerning to me- the South Florida part of the pattern.

SOUTH FLORIDA STORM

First spotted in November, this part of the pattern has repeated over and over, showing a clear threat for South Florida, particularly SW Florida.

WESH

Potential return dates for this part of the pattern include May 23-28, July 9-15, and August 26-September 1

Gulf to Carolinas Low

First spotted around Halloween 2023- this part of our weather pattern showed a storm system crossing through the big bend... through Florida... and then up to the Carolina coastline. I've observed this weather cycle over and over again- and think it's a key part of our 2024 weather pattern.

WESH

Gulf To Carolinas Low

Potential return dates for this part of the pattern include June 24-29, August 10-16, and September 26-October 3.

Gulf Coast Low

First spotted October 11th, and observed several times through- this low formed over the gulf waters, and then started working more eastward. The overall large geographical area of this is because of its observed motion each time, moving east along the Gulf coast.

WESH

Gulf Coast Low

Potential return dates for this part of the pattern include June 6-10, July 23-28, and September 8-14.

Number Of Storms

WESH

For this year's forecast, we looked deep into the El Nino/La Nina switchover. We're coming off a quick but strong El Nino pattern- shifting to La Nina this late summer-fall. In the five examples we studied in past years (1966, 1973, 1983, 1998, and 2016), there was a clear signal in the overall numbers. For these example years, the number of named storms came down a bit- but there was a greater percentage of storms intensifying into hurricanes and even major hurricanes. Perhaps the idea there to take away is that things that form could get stronger this year, more-so than 'normal' conditions.

How is this forecast even possible?

As crazy as it sounds, there are many elements that play a role in our forecast puzzle. From sea surface temperatures, to La Niña, and fancy weather terms like 'AO' and 'NAO' you get pieces to the puzzle, BUT, the main thing that helps clear this up and look long range is the LRC.

The LRC, or Lezak's Recurring Cycle (named for the meteorologist who discovered it) is a technique that uses the past to predict the future. The term "what goes around comes around" isn't just for life, Lezak discovered this could be applied for weather as well. Before we get into the forecast, let me explain how this all works:

The basics of the LRC

A unique weather pattern sets up each fall and becomes established.
Long-term repeating features are clues to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
Once the weather pattern is set it cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring, and summer.

The key to this forecast and using the cycling weather technique is by determining the cycle duration. It ranges year to year from 40-70 days- but once you key in on it, you can forecast the weather through the end of the "LRC year," or about the start of October. This means while it's a great tool, the limitation is that by October 2023 we start setting up a new "LRC year," thus the very end of hurricane season can't be predicted this early.

Final Thoughts

First and foremost going into any hurricane season, we need to be prepared. Take the time now to be sure your family has a plan in place and a hurricane kit ready to go if a tropical system were to threaten our local area.

One question that usually arises is locations outside of the hot spots discussed. These areas still could see tropical activity/landfall this season, but the chances are much closer to average or even below average. An example based on the pattern we identified would be the Texas coast- where chances are average to below average of a landfall this season. In contrast, the gulf coast/Florida west coast is in a hot spot. This length of the Florida coast has an above average chance of a tropical system(s) making landfall during the 2024 hurricane season.

These weather patterns represent to me the disturbances with the most potential to produce tropical activity. It's important to keep in mind they are NOT the only features that could produce a tropical systems for the year. Add that the NEW 2024-2025 cycle establishes in October so things will look very different for October and November.

All in all, if you have questions regarding the 2024 hurricane season forecast or anything you read here please feel free to contact me via email eburris@hearst.com

You can follow my weather updates on social media...Twitter here and Facebook here.

Eric Burris
WESH 2 First Warning Meteorologist

Related content:

WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide

2024 hurricane season brings new risks: WESH long-range forecast reveals crucial 'hot spots' for Florida

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2024 Hot Spots

SOUTH FLORIDA STORM

Gulf to Carolinas Low

Gulf Coast Low

Number Of Storms

Final Thoughts

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