Who will lead the Tories next?

00:00 04:42

James Heale has narrated this article for you to listen to.

Rishi Sunak performed a mea culpa when his shadow cabinet convened on Monday, taking full responsibility for the election loss. There were, he said, lots of lessons to be learned. He tried rallying his team, reminding them it was time to knuckle down and prepare for the King’s Speech. When those around the table began agreeing, with some saluting Sunak’s performance during the campaign, Kemi Badenoch decided she couldn’t take it any longer. Isn’t it necessary, she asked, to say that the snap election had been a calamity, the Tory campaign had been even worse – and that it was about time to examine why?

She argued that Sunak went to the King to call the election without even the pretence of seeking advice from his cabinet beforehand; a move, she said, which bordered on being unconstitutional. And while the cabinet was kept in the dark, she went on, Sunak’s ‘buffoon’ of a parliamentary private secretary was placing a bet on the election date.

Then Badenoch attacked his decision to leave D-Day celebrations early – was it now time to discuss the consequences of that too? She said the move had dire consequences, pointing out that Penny Mordaunt lost her seat as a result.

This shadow cabinet will not exist for much longer. Sunak’s job is to keep things together long enough for his party to hold a leadership election; Badenoch is the bookmakers’ favourite. With the Tory succession under way, a new chairman of the 1922 committee was chosen on Tuesday. Bob Blackman, MP for Harrow East, is now in charge of deciding the rules for selecting the next leader. He will meet with the party board to decide whether the contest should be concluded before or after the autumn party conference. Blackman has told colleagues that the party needs to ‘take our time’ and suggested that there could be as many as four remaining candidates by October.

As with David Cameron’s crowning Blackpool conference in 2005, the annual Tory gathering this year could serve as a ‘beauty pageant’, enabling members to get a proper look at the prospective leaders. Only twice in the past 50 years have the Conservatives been led back from opposition – by Margaret Thatcher and David Cameron. Neither of them would have been favoured by a quick contest, probably. But some MPs fear that time is a luxury their party doesn’t have today. With Labour forging ahead in government and an insurgent threat on the right, wouldn’t a protracted contest look indulgent?

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There’s little sign of any Cameron-style outsider emerging at this stage. It’s too early. Unlike Michael Howard in 2005, Sunak didn’t use his shadow cabinet appointments to boost the profile of any likely contenders. Allies rather than potential successors were rewarded: Kevin Hollinrake, Andrew Mitchell, James Cartlidge.

This race is therefore likely to feature many familiar faces from past contests. Badenoch was given the shadow brief she asked for: planning. It’s an opportunity for her to go into battle, given that Angela Rayner wants to make house building the first mission of a Starmer government.

Tory leadership contests tend to become a fight between the frontrunner and an anyone-but-the-frontrunner candidate (who often wins). Badenoch is regarded as the former. Robert Jenrick, once Sunak’s best friend in politics, has been preparing for a leadership bid ever since resigning as immigration minister in December. Focusing heavily on Reform, his pitch will be a calculated cross-right appeal to members’ desire for what one supporter calls the ‘policies of Nigel Farage and the presentation of David Cameron’. Much like Liz Truss in 2022, Jenrick needs to lock up much of the right if he’s to make the final two.

Tom Tugendhat is another membership favourite whose time might finally have come. He looks well-placed to pick up support among Penny Mordaunt’s former supporters, having assiduously courted the One Nation Caucus, which still has 40 MPs. Tugendhat has previously boasted impressive financial backers, having comfortably raised £120,000 for his failed bid in 2022. His supporters argue that the Conservatives would still have been flattened even if they had won all the votes back from Reform – so they need an offering on their right and left flanks. Tugendhat will pitch himself as the only candidate who is able to be that. His chances will only increase if James Cleverly rules himself out.

If Priti Patel runs, she is certain to face questions about the 1.3 million net migrants who arrived here on her watch as home secretary. But her chances are better than those of her successor, Suella Braverman, whose recent ill-advised interventions mean that she is ‘drifting out to sea’, in the words of one erstwhile supporter.

This leadership race will not take place in a vacuum. Many in the grassroots want a full post-mortem about what went wrong. Those Conservatives urging a quick contest note that the party will be defending many council seats in next May’s council elections. ‘How many more members are we going to shed?’ asks one. Reform is keen to park its tanks on Tory lawns. A metaphorical demonstration of this was offered on Tuesday, when a triumphant Nigel Farage descended on a nearly empty Strangers’ Bar in parliament at lunchtime – only to discover that the only other patrons were his vanquished opponent Giles Watling and his team.

For now, much will depend on the Tories rediscovering the muscle memory of opposition and of having to work unaided by any government machine. Members of the ‘26’ – the new first-time MPs elected amid the bloodbath – report a certain bafflement at the instant Tory factionalism they’ve encountered. Older veterans are more cynical towards colleagues offering easy answers.

The danger for the Tories lies in their obsession with the question of who the party stands for, rather than what. After all the ideological contortions of recent years, it’s a hard question. But at least they have a few years to find the answer.

Watch James Heale interview Steve Baker on SpectatorTV: