The PGA Tour and the DP World Tour are once again teaming up to sanction the Genesis Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club. The 2023 version of the Genesis Scottish Open was a memorable one. Rory McIlroy beat Scotland’s Robert MacIntyre with an incredible birdie-birdie finish at the 17th and 18th holes.
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Tom Kim and Tommy Fleetwood were the closest competitors to McIlroy heading into Sunday, but neither was able to mount a charge as it looked like McIlroy would cruise to a win. MacIntyre fired the low round of the day with a 64 to put the pressure on McIlroy and the other leaders but came up a shot short when it was all done. McIlroy will be looking to become the first back-to-back Scottish Open champion.
McIlroy will be making his first start since faltering down the stretch at the U.S. Open. Scottie Scheffler is sitting this one out after finishing T3 here last year. Some other top players in the field this week include Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark and Ludvig Åberg. Justin Thomas is once again teeing it up at the Scottish Open where he will be hoping to break out of his poor course history and build on his excellent performance at the Travelers Championship.
The good thing about the Scottish Open setting up shop at the Renaissance Club is that we will be starting to see more solid trends when it comes to statistical profiles that play well at this golf course. The wind and weather will be key factors when it comes to making this tournament a challenge for the players. With five years’ worth of statistics available for the Renaissance Club, my model will be focusing on driving distance, Par 3 scoring, strokes gained on approach from 175 yards to 200 yards, strokes gained on approach from over 200 yards and strokes gained around the green.
Course information
Course: Renaissance Club, North Berwick, U.K.
Designed by: Tom Doak
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,293 yards
Features: The Renaissance Club was designed by Tom Doak alongside player advisor Pádraig Harrington to bring big-time tournament golf to a course owned by the Sarvadi family. This is the sixth year that the Renaissance Club has hosted the Scottish Open and the third edition as a co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour.
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The golf course features fescue grass from the tee boxes to the greens, with heavy fescue rough looking to gobble up wayward shots. The golf course has five Par 3s and three Par 5s. Two of the Par 3s can play below 160 yards, and all three Par 5s are reachable in two as long as the wind isn’t blowing against the players.
Odds for Scottish Open winner
Odds are from BetMGM and update live.
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Betting slip
Collin Morikawa (+1400) is on the verge of breaking out and winning a tournament. He has gained strokes in every major category in four straight tournaments. Morikawa has gained at least 1.9 strokes off the tee in five straight tournaments with his placement making up for his lack of game-changing distance. The putter which held him back in 2023 has become a major weapon in his arsenal. He has gained three strokes or more putting in three of his last six tournaments.
Min Woo Lee (+2800) has gained over 10 strokes combined off the tee in his last three tournaments. He has gained almost seven strokes combined around the green in his last two golf tournaments while gaining strokes with his putter in six straight tournaments.
Sungjae Im (+4500) has gained over 8.3 strokes on approach combined over his last two tournaments. I asked his caddie Willy Wilcox what was going on with Im’s iron play after he struggled at The Memorial and the U.S. Open, and he assured me they had figured it out heading into the Travelers Championship. He was right. He has gained strokes across the board in his last two tournaments and looks to be getting back to where he was the last few years.
Brian Harman (+4500) was a balky putter away from contending at the Travelers Championship. Harman gained strokes across the board on Sunday as he pushed his way up to a tie for ninth at the Travelers Championship and will be looking to prepare to defend his Open Championship win next week. He has gained strokes off the tee in three straight tournaments.
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Eric Cole (+12500) is in excellent form right now. He has gained strokes across the board in two straight tournaments and could be getting back to being the ball striker we all know and loved in 2023, as he gained over 8.6 strokes combined in the ball striking category of his last two tournaments. I’m not going to ignore that form, even if this might not be the best golf course style for his game.
DFS plays
Rory McIlroy ($11,900) is head and shoulders above most of the players in this field when it comes to my model. The high price doesn’t scare me, as there are many DP World Tour players in the 6K range that we can play in our McIlroy lineups to balance the budget. I expect McIlory to jump out of the gates fast to show that the U.S. Open missed putts are behind him, so I will be betting on him as the first-round leader at +2200 and using him in my lineups.
Ludvig Åberg ($10,500) lost over seven strokes with his putter at the Travelers Championship, but I’m willing to look past that aberration. I expect Schauffele ($11,700) and Morikawa to soak up whatever is left from the ownership numbers in the 10K and above range, so Åberg could be the sneaky play here. His around-the-green numbers are keeping him down a bit in my model, but I will still use him a lot.
Collin Morikawa ($10,300) See above.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900) has three top-six finishes at this course and has four straight top-21 finishes on the PGA Tour. He is going to be very popular even at this high price. If you are playing a single-entry tournament, I may think about fading him. I will be using him in cash games this week despite having those thoughts in single-entry tournaments.
Tom Kim ($9,500) missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic after losing in a playoff at the Travelers Championship, but I’m not too worried about it this week. He has two straight top-six finishes here while gaining over 6.8 strokes combined on approach in those tournaments.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400) might go under the radar a bit this week with Fleetwood and Kim having such a great record here. Matsuyama pops in my model due to his excellent around-the-green game. He struggled with his irons at the Travelers Championship but gained over four strokes off the tee for the week.
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Min Woo Lee ($9,200) See above.
Corey Conners ($8,900) has gained over 10 strokes combined around the green in his last three golf tournaments. He had his best finish at the Scottish Open last year, finishing inside the top 20, but it might be tough for him to pay off at this price.
Brian Harman ($8,600) See above.
Sungjae Im ($8,500) See above.
Aaron Rai ($8,300) has gained more than 2.5 strokes on approach in six of his last seven golf tournaments. Rai has been on fire with his putter, gaining over 15.5 strokes combined with his putter in his last three tournaments. Rai is a solid Sunday away from winning a golf tournament.
Wyndham Clark ($8,100) might have found something at the Travelers Championship. He gained over 3.5 strokes on approach for the week and gained over four strokes with his putter. I like Clark as a sneaky play, hoping he can build on that performance.
Byeong Hun An ($7,600) withdrew from the Travelers Championship so I have some concerns, but it’s hard to ignore how well he played here last year. He tied the course record in the first round.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,500) has only missed one cut since the beginning of March and it was at the PGA Championship. His putting and around-the-green game should be an asset here. He has finished T16 here before, so he should have some confidence.
Ryan Fox ($7,100) has made the cut here three straight times, with his best finish being a T12 last year. He is coming off of a tournament where he gained over 3.8 strokes on approach at the BMW International Open.
Tom McKibbin ($7,000) has gained over 23.2 strokes ball striking over his last two tournaments combined on the DP World Tour.
Matthieu Pavon ($6,900) looks to be finding his form from earlier in the year, but the around-the-green game will continue to haunt him if he can’t find a consistent fix. He has gained over 8.1 strokes combined ball striking over his last two tournaments.
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Ewen Ferguson ($6,700) is coming into this week off a huge win at the BMW International Open, where he gained over 7.5 strokes on approach. I expect a bit of a hangover, but his price is low enough to get some exposure with that type of ball-striking form.
Ben Griffin ($6,600) has gained over 2.8 strokes on approach in three straight tournaments and he gained over 10 strokes with his short game last week at the John Deere Classic.
Bernd Wiesberger ($6,600) co-owns the low-round record here and has the tournament record for scoring.
Jordan Smith ($6,600) finished T2 last week at the BMW International Open while gaining over 5.8 strokes on approach and finished T12 here last year.
Eric Cole ($6,400) See above.
One and done
Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings, and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. Reference this spreadsheet tracking who we have used.
Standings
Dennis Esser: $9,826,134
Brody Miller: $8,317,938.16
Hugh Kellenberger: $8,194,073.63
Kellenberger: We’ve gone long enough without Tommy Fleetwood winning on the PGA Tour that it’s fair to wonder if it’ll ever come or if he’s something akin to this generation’s Colin Montgomerie. When the breakthrough does happen, it stands to reason we don’t really see it coming, but Fleetwood has a strong history at this event (T6 and T4 the last two years).
Miller: Not only did Min Woo Lee first break out with a win at the Scottish Open three years ago, but he’s also on a six-tournament run of T26 or better, including a T2 at the Rocket Mortgage. It’s hard to trust Min Woo sometimes, but he’s so good off the tee that I think it’s a good week to back him.
Esser: Denny McCarthy used a nice Sunday charge to push my lead a little bit further out this past week at the John Deere Classic. I wanted to take Tommy Fleetwood this week, but I already used him at the RBC Classic, and he was already taken by the time I got to pick. I’m expecting a nice bounce back from Tom Kim this week after he missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. It was understandable that he would have a bit of a letdown after losing in a playoff at the Travelers Championship to Scheffler.
(Photo of Collin Morikawa: James Gilbert / Getty Images)