Penn State football survey results: Confidence remains in Drew Allar, offense to improve

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — It’s the final stretch of the offseason. Big Ten media days will commence on July 23 in Indianapolis and by the end of the month, Penn State will be back on the practice field.

Below are the results of The Athletic’s offseason fan survey, which generated more than 900 responses. Curiosity drives my reporting and this helps fill the gaps in figuring out which topics you’re more familiar with than others.

Thank you to everyone who carved out time during a holiday weekend to participate.

1. After 10 seasons in Happy Valley, what’s your satisfaction level with James Franklin?

Penn State is 88-39 and has appeared in five New Year’s Six bowl games during Franklin’s tenure. Franklin took a team coming off significant NCAA sanctions and quickly turned it into a Big Ten contender. That turnaround from scholarship limitations and bowl bans to upsetting No. 2 Ohio State and winning the Big Ten title game in 2016 will always be part of Franklin’s legacy.

Since that pivotal moment though the Nittany Lions have struggled to take the next step. Whether one focuses on the quick rebuild and sustained success or the 3-17 record against AP top-10 opponents is all in the eye of the beholder. It’s difficult to win in the Big Ten, especially in the now-defunct East division that Penn State used to be part of. In all, 52 percent of respondents gave Franklin’s full body of work at Penn State a score of 4 out of 5.

2. In your eyes, this season will be considered a success if Penn State football…

This is the question I was most curious to see the answer to. The expanded College Football Playoff changes expectations and realities for a lot of teams. The Nittany Lions should be in the Playoff conversation. I wouldn’t have said that if it was still a four-team field. But, is making the Playoff good enough for the season to be a success? I wrote last week that Penn State needs to win a game in the Playoff for this year to be successful. Many of you agree. The season will be a success if Penn State wins a game in the 12-team Playoff field, per 50.3 percent of you. Just making the 12-team Playoff would satisfy 44.4 percent of respondents.

3. What will Penn State’s regular-season record be in 2024?

Penn State is in line for another 10-2 season, according to 60 percent of respondents. In this 18-team conference, a 10-2 season should keep the Nittany Lions in the Playoff hunt. With a season opener at West Virginia and trips to USC and Wisconsin, among others, this schedule won’t be easy by any stretch. Penn State does not play Michigan or Oregon, but Ohio State comes to Beaver Stadium, as does Washington and UCLA.

4. What’s your confidence level in OC Andy Kotelnicki?

The Nittany Lion offense is getting revamped by the former Kansas offensive coordinator. Kotelnicki has a certain confidence about him that’s stood out to players, recruits and high school coaches. If you talk to the man once or listen to him speak, you’ll notice it too. There’s a certain level of enthusiasm Kotelnicki has that has players fired up to play for him. Many of you are excited about him too, with 49.1 percent of respondents giving Kotelnicki a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

5. What’s your confidence level in DC Tom Allen?

When Franklin was looking for Manny Diaz’s replacement, the head coach was quick to mention it would be difficult to hire someone who could outperform what the Penn State defense did last season. Last year’s defense was one of the best in the country and while plenty of talent remains — highlighted by linebacker-turned-defensive end Abdul Carter and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton — there’s a feeling among respondents that Franklin’s new defensive coordinator will do just fine. More than half of respondents (51.6 percent) gave Allen a 4 out of 5 confidence rating.

6. Penn State’s most impactful transfer portal addition this season will be …

Julian Fleming is back home in Pennsylvania after four seasons at Ohio State. Penn State has a glaring need at wide receiver and the senior should have plenty of opportunities to impact the offense. Fleming received nearly 60 percent of votes while cornerback A.J. Harris, formerly of Georgia, was the second leading vote-getter. Offensive tackle Nolan Rucci, formerly of Wisconsin, was third. There’s no doubt that Harris, in just his second year of college football, is going to be a significant addition to this roster in the coming years. Penn State has one year to get it right with Fleming. Many have hoped to see Fleming in blue and white since he starred at Southern Columbia High School in Catawissa, Pa.

7. By season’s end, Penn State’s most productive pass catcher will be …

For the second offseason in a row, Penn State is trying to figure out which wide receivers will step up. KeAndre Lambert-Smith is now at Auburn. Dante Cephas, last year’s transfer portal addition, is now at Kansas State. I opened this question up to non-wide receivers because I think tight end Tyler Warren is going to play a large role in the success of this offense. Without a clear No. 1 wide receiver, the proven tight end received 36.1 percent of the votes. Warren narrowly edged out wide receiver Harrison Wallace III (30.4 percent) and Fleming (26.1 percent). Keeping Wallace and Fleming healthy, something both have struggled to do at various points in their careers will be a storyline this season.

8. By season’s end, QB Drew Allar will be …

The prized recruit is in his third season in Happy Valley and second as the starter. Gone is offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich and in his place is Kotelnicki. Graduate assistant Danny O’Brien, who was instrumental in recruiting all the quarterbacks on this roster, is now the quarterbacks coach. Allar could be on the path to NFL stardom or be the next blue-chip quarterback who didn’t live up to the recruiting pedigree at Penn State.

GO DEEPER

Can Drew Allar break Penn State's blue-chip QB rut? Former Lions reflect on experiences

History isn’t on Allar’s side, either. A Penn State quarterback hasn’t been taken in the first round of the NFL Draft since 1995 when Kerry Collins was picked fifth.

However, 54.4 percent of respondents believe by the end of this season Allar will be among the top 15 quarterbacks in college football, but not be a Heisman Trophy finalist.

9. Will Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen both eclipse 1,000 yards rushing this season?

It’s a coin flip. Penn State’s backfield should be one of the best in the country. Don’t forget about freshman Quinton Martin Jr. either, who ranked 89th nationally per the 247Sports Composite. Ja’Juan Seider will continue having co-starters with Singleton and Allen and while 50.4 percent of respondents don’t think each will eclipse 1,000 yards rushing, 49.6 percent of respondents think they will.

10. Penn State’s sack leader will be…

Carter approached the coaching staff in the winter about wanting to make a position switch. Now listed at 6-foot-3, 259 pounds the defensive end is predicted by 60.4 percent of respondents to lead the team in sacks this season. Dennis-Sutton also could be among the top defensive ends in the country, but Carter has a sizable lead in our survey. Penn State’s starting defensive ends should be one of the best duos in the country.

11. What excites you most about the upcoming season?

There’s a new offensive coordinator and with him comes excitement that Kotelnicki can quickly take what should be a talented roster and make it into an explosive offense that’s fun to watch. If Joe Moorhead was able to revamp the offense in 2016, why can’t it be done again with Kotelnicki? That’s the main theme that jumped out after reading your submissions.

There’s also excitement about this new-look conference. The opportunity to see Penn State play at USC in October and to see UCLA and Washington in Beaver Stadium will be new for everyone. Some of you have already made plans to travel to USC. Others are simply elated that football season is around the corner. You’re thrilled to return to Beaver Stadium, tailgate and watch the team you love.

Many of you — and rightfully so — are also excited that the Big Ten’s East division is gone. Penn State does not play Michigan this year unless, of course, they match up in the postseason. The idea of Penn State potentially hosting a Playoff game has many of you excited, too.

Here’s a sampling of responses (edited lightly for length and clarity):

• “Playing for a real shot at the Playoff. PSU has been on the outside looking in forever. Back to 1994. Back to Nixon and the 70s. Give us a chance to win it on the field.” — Jim R.
• “Finally playing some Big Ten opponents around Penn State’s talent level. The recent past has been OSU/UM in one tier and a big drop-off to everyone else. USC and Washington should provide a couple of challenging but winnable match-ups.” — Doug W.
• “I want to say a new offense, but it’s the defense. I think they’re going to be incredible.” — JS
• “This is the ‘show me’ year for the Class of 2022. That recruiting class is one of the best. Now it’s time to play up to their potential.” — Rob T.
• “Not knowing how it’s going to play out. It could end with a run at the title or a dumpster fire.” — John O.

12. What concerns you most about the upcoming season?

The receiving corps is still in question. So too is the starting quarterback. What if this offense isn’t on the same page by Aug. 31 when Penn State opens at West Virginia? Remember, if Penn State is going for a quick turnaround on offense like 2016 — which many of you have mentioned — that team did lose at Pitt early in the season. There were growing pains along the way.

Here’s a sampling of your responses (edited lightly for length and clarity):

• “The likelihood that Penn State is the 13th team in a 12-team field because we can’t win a big game yet again.” — Ari M.
• “The schedule is much more difficult with the expanded conference.” — Dylan S.
• “Existential worry over going from No. 2 to No. 3 to No. 4-6 in the conference and turning into Iowa.” — B. Harkless
• “I think we’ve seen Franklin’s ceiling.” — Jim F.
• “How much of Allar’s struggles were the old OC and receivers … or Allar himself?” — Kyle M.
• “Six years since Franklin’s good to great speech and the program seems no closer to winning a national title. If anything it seems that the program peaked in 16-17 and those two years are more of an outlier. Also, in 10 years it could be argued that the offense has still never run as a fully functioning unit.” — Drew J.

13. Should Penn State’s White Out only be used for night games, regardless of the opponent?

It’s one of the best spectacles in the sport, but as of July 9, there has been no announcement about Penn State’s White Out game opponent this year. Should Penn State play Ohio State at noon, would that game be the White Out? Or is it best served for a night game potentially against a team like Illinois, UCLA or Washington? Many of you (68.2 percent) want the White Out at night regardless of opponent. This aligns with a poll Penn State athletics conducted a few years ago when fans said keeping the White Out at night was most important to them.

14. Penn State’s White Out opponent this year should be …

OK, so the majority of respondents want the White Out at night, but 62.5 percent of survey takers think Ohio State should be this year’s White Out opponent. Ideally, the White Out would be against Ohio State at night in Beaver Stadium. That’s Penn State’s preference too, but it’s not that simple with television. The second choice for the White Out is UCLA while Washington is third.

15. What excites you most about the Beaver Stadium renovation?

There are fences around the stadium and a new video board is being installed. Some of the smaller parts of the multi-year renovation will be noticeable this season. The most significant changes, coming to the stadium’s west side, will start after the end of this football season.

GO DEEPER

Penn State's Beaver Stadium renovation timeline, capacity details

Some of you are excited about the new restrooms and wider concourses. Crowd flow is a major part of this renovation. Others are happy for me because the press box demolition after this season means my days of taking the rickety stairs down to the field are numbered.

Keep in mind that improving traffic patterns on game days is not part of the renovation, but it’s a concern many respondents continued to share. Penn State is looking at ways to lessen traffic, but some of these issues stem from there only being a few ways in and out of this town.

Here’s a sampling of your stadium renovation responses (edited lightly for length and clarity):

• “The removal of troughs in the men’s rooms!” — John P.
• “Improved wifi/cellular service. Beaver Stadium currently is one gigantic dead zone during a game. It will be nice to be able to check scores of other games and text with friends/family in real-time.” — Pat M.
• “Ability to host more events than just football. Seeing a concert there would be nice, but seeing a Flyers vs. Pens game there would be a dream.” — Dan C.
• “The only renovation I’d get excited about is the lack of traffic after games.” — Sam F.

16/17. How well do you think Penn State football is doing with NIL efforts? What is the name of Penn State’s collective?

On a scale of one to five, 58 percent of respondents put Penn State’s NIL efforts at a three. Penn State’s collective is Happy Valley United, a name roughly 27 percent of respondents struggled to come up with. Or, as one witty respondent who couldn’t recall the name put it: “Might as well be Basic Blues, Black Shoes and No Name.”

Producing the name was a challenge for some and part of the confusion is likely because Penn State merged collectives in June 2023. The promotion and branding of Happy Valley United has improved, but I asked for the name because I was curious how many people are either still unfamiliar with it, unwilling to give for various reasons (there were quite a few “don’t care” replies) or are still confused after they merged. Some said they were unsure if there was a collective. Others said they thought it was still Success With Honor, which was the name of the previous collective.

18. Which Big Ten newcomer are you most looking forward to seeing Penn State play in the coming years?

The uniform clash of Penn State and Oregon will happen in 2025 in Beaver Stadium. Playing the Ducks was the most popular choice with 47 percent of respondents picking Oregon while 44.8 percent chose USC. There’s slightly more enthusiasm surrounding a game against Washington (5.8 percent) than there is for playing UCLA (2.4 percent).

(Photo: Dan Rainville / USA Today)