There are just three weeks left before the July 30 MLB trade deadline, and while there have been a few minor deals (anyone excited about Austin Slater to the Reds?), the bulk of the action is still likely to wait until after the All-Star break, for a couple of reasons.
First, with the expanded playoffs, there are more teams on the bubble. A team that looks like a seller right now could go on a seven- or eight-game winning streak and find itself within a game or two of playoff position. Second, since the league moved the draft from mid-June back to the All-Star break, front offices are cramming to pull off two very important things at once. The draft will happen July 14-16; once that’s done, teams will be able to turn their focus fully to the trade market.
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Let’s see what we’ve learned in the last week!
Needs for Obvious Buyers
The Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in baseball, at 58-32, and here’s a list of players they’ll be adding within a week or two on either side of the deadline: catcher J.T. Realmuto and starting pitchers Spencer Turnbull and Taijuan Walker. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber could be activated as soon as today!
Sounds like a trade deadline winner to me.
But now’s the time to get greedy, and if the Phillies are getting picky about their needs, Matt Gelb says they have a decision to make on whether outfielder Brandon Marsh is a full-time player. If they opt to upgrade, the usual suspects are all options, but — in regards to one option in particular — Craig Mish of the Miami Herald says there’s a growing belief that Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be traded this year. In our latest trade deadline watch, the crew looks at Dave Dombrowski’s solid history of picking up spark-plug role players who shine in October.
Over in the AL East, the Orioles are a relatively simple assessment: They need starting pitching, and they have the prospects to make it happen. But the Yankees are a weird one, aren’t they? Early in the season, it seemed like everyone (except Gleyber Torres) was going to have a career year as they sailed to a division title. Now they’re 6-16 in their last 22 games, three games back in the division, and it seems like everyone (except Aaron Judge) has been replaced by the Wario version of themselves. So, what do they need? Nothing, or everything?
One position to watch is first base. As Brendan Kuty wrote this week, Ben Rice has been a very serviceable replacement with Anthony Rizzo on the injured list … as long as the Yankees aren’t facing a left-handed pitcher. (Rice is hitting just .133 with a .369 OPS in 17 plate appearances against lefties.) They could also upgrade at second base, or perhaps third base, shifting DJ LeMahieu into a platoon with Torres at second.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers appear to be in the market for a third baseman or an outfield bat, the Mariners desperately need some offensive firepower to go along with their brilliant starting rotation, and the Guardians are — it still feels weird to say it — going to need a starting pitcher or two (Jim Bowden suggests a Garrett Crochet fit on question No. 19 of 31 mailbag questions). And rounding out our check-in on some — but not all — of the clear buyers, in the NL Central, the Brewers are likely to make improvements in their trademarked budget-friendly Brewers way, and the Cardinals need a right-handed bat.
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Lastly, there is no team in baseball that couldn’t use an impact reliever. Every slam-dunk division leader and every wild-card hopeful could use a nasty late-innings guy to lock down those leads.
The time to sell has come
The Chicago Cubs are in last place in the NL Central — 11 games back in the division and 5 1/2 games back in the wild-card race. That’s not quite as clear a picture as their neighbors on the South Side of town, but barring a winning streak that extends past the All-Star break, Sahadev Sharma is on the right track here — it’s probably time to start turning an eye toward 2025.
Cody Bellinger is the obvious name (Sharma gets into that in the above link), but one pitcher who seems like a good “sell” opportunity for the Cubs is right-hander Tyson Miller. The Cubs acquired Miller in a May trade with the Mariners, and it cost them only a minor-league infielder. Since then, he has posted a 1.83 ERA in 18 games. His track record isn’t that of an established bullpen ace — since his debut in 2020, he has pitched for the Cubs, Rangers, Brewers, Dodgers, Mets, Mariners and Cubs again — but if Chicago can flip him for more value than a guy with a sub-.700 OPS in Triple A, it feels like an easy chance to come out ahead.
Our trade deadline reporting team has more on Miller here, and also delves into the Rockies, who aren’t a wild-card team, but have absolutely established themselves as a wild card when it comes to the deadline, zigging when traditional wisdom would scream that it is Zag Time.
For the umpteenth year in a row, they should be sellers. Feel free to pick your favorite reason:
• They’re bad.
• There aren’t that many clear sellers, meaning they could dive in right now and take advantage of the scarcity.
• They aren’t going to be good before … I don’t know, I feel comfortable saying 2027 as a conservative estimate? They’re a mess.
They could also save money by unloading some guys with bigger contracts. But there’s a problem. Check out their top three highest-paid players this year (prorated for 71 remaining games this season).
| Player | Signed through | Money owed | 2024 bWAR |
|---|---|---|---|
2026 | ~$38.57m | -0.6 | |
2028 | ~$120.27m | -0.6 | |
2024 | ~$5.7m | 0.2 |
Unfortunately for the Rockies, the market for “guys who cost a lot and aren’t producing” has yet to develop (ever).
But they also have three players who it would make a lot of sense to make calls on. Cal Quantrill is 6-6 with a 3.77 ERA (2.8 bWAR), and he will be arbitration-eligible in 2025 and a free agent after next season. Catcher Elias Díaz (.299/.344/.424, .768 OPS, 1.6 bWAR) is set to hit the market this winter, and is 33 years old, meaning his window of contention does not match up with that of the Rockies. Lastly, while they might want to hold on to Ryan McMahon as a building block — he’s signed through 2027 — he’s been worth 2.5 bWAR this year, approximately the same as Christian Yelich, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jurickson Profar. And he’s only owed about $49.26 million between now and the end of 2027.
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Meanwhile, in Detroit, the Tigers appear to have skirted disaster. Jack Flaherty missed a start last week after he received an injection in his back — a red flag for a guy who could be an attractive trade chip this month. So far, so good; Flaherty is due to start on Thursday. Potential plot twist: the Tigers beat the Guardians on Monday night for their fourth consecutive win. They’re still seven games out in the wild-card race, but could this be the start of one of those winning streaks I was talking about?
If so, Detroit could — as Ken Rosenthal and crew write here — make him a qualifying offer, which would give them a compensation draft pick if he departs in free agency. Other topics in that report: the Nationals selling as they gear up for contention in the coming years, and the Rays considering their trade chips.
(Top photo of Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Sam Navarro / USA Today)
