The final four of Euro 2024 is set, and there isn’t a long shot in the group. All four teams are big names in the sport, producing no clear, stand-out favorite, although Spain has the shortest odds at +190 ahead of the semifinals.
The Spaniards knocked out host Germany in extra time in the quarterfinals and took over the top spot in the odds from England after clearing that hurdle. England continues to look unimpressive but survive. In a quarterfinal win against Switzerland, the English trailed for the second straight knockout match and needed to go past 90 minutes for the second straight match. This time, England won on penalties. England has won just one of its five matches inside 90 minutes.
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England’s dull performance knocked the team from the favorite position on BetMGM, but the Three Lions are still second of the four remaining teams and are favored against the Netherlands in Wednesday’s semifinal.
Euro 2024 champion odds
Like England, France has also been unimpressive relative to the talent the team has on paper. Les Bleus have not scored from open play, making it to the semifinals after getting two own goals and converting one penalty. On the flip side, France has only allowed one goal and that was also a penalty. It seems impossible that a team with this much talent and a recent record for winning (France has now made at least the semifinals at four of the last five major tournaments) can struggle this much to score, but manager Didier Deschamps has made sure this team prioritizes defense.
It makes sense for Spain to finally be favored. Spain has arguably been the most impressive team at the tournament as the only squad to win all three group games, followed by a convincing 4-1 win against Georgia to open the knockout stage. The quarterfinal win against Germany required extra time, but Germany was also one of the best teams in the Euro 2024 field, and playing the host is never easy. Once Spain got past Germany, and England no longer had a clearly easier draw, Spain became the logical favorite.
All odds from BetMGM. Odds to win or draw are over 90 minutes.
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Spain vs. France
Odds to advance: Spain -130, France +100
Spain-Germany was a rematch of the Euro 2008 final. Spain-France is a rematch of the Euro 1984 final. France won that match 2-0 in what was the country’s first major trophy. This time around the Spaniards are favored despite having a number of players out due to injury and suspension. Midfielder Pedri is out with a knee injury, and defenders Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand will be serving a yellow card suspension.
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England vs. Netherlands
Odds to advance: England -135, Netherlands +100
It’s hard to be impressed by England on an aesthetic level, but the Three Lions are still in the tournament. England has now made the semifinals at three of the last four major tournaments after making three other semifinals in the rest of the team’s history. This current group still doesn’t have a trophy, and watching the games won’t give a ton of confidence that they can get one here, but England is a slight favorite in this match. England is the only team remaining that has never won the Euros.
The Dutch are far from a long shot, though, and are more likely to play an open game than England’s previous opponents, all of whom gave the Three Lions trouble defensively. The Netherlands’ Cody Gakpo is the current favorite to win the Golden Boot. He is tied for the tournament lead with three goals and is the only player among that group still playing.
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(Photo of Dani Olmo: Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP via Getty Images)
