Who are X-factors for every Big 12 team? KJ Jefferson, Dylan Edwards, Evan Pryor head the list

By Sam Khan Jr., Max Olson, Ari Wasserman and Justin Williams

The majority of fans are familiar with the most important players in the Big 12. It might be a big-time addition in the transfer portal, a star quarterback or a potential first-round NFL Draft selection.

We wanted to dig a little deeper, so we have selected an X-factor at every program — an under-the-radar player who will go a long way in determining his team’s success in 2024.

We are publishing a story for each power conference to complement an episode of “Until Saturday.” Here are our X-factors from the Big Ten, ACC and SEC.

Now it’s time for the Big 12.

Arizona: Defensive lineman Tre Smith followed coach Brent Brennan from San Jose State where he was plenty productive: 66 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks in 2023 en route to earning first-team All-Mountain West honors. With Arizona’s 2023 sack leader, Taylor Upshaw, gone, Smith should be a key part of replenishing that pass-rush production. — Khan

Arizona State: I’m expecting a breakout season from Jordyn Tyson. The wide receiver impressed as a true freshman at Colorado in 2022 with 644 all-purpose yards and five TDs (including a 246-yard performance vs. the Sun Devils) but suffered a significant knee injury that forced him to miss most of 2023. ASU coach Kenny Dillingham knew Tyson’s recovery would require patience but trusted he could become a difference-maker again. — Olson

Baylor: Receiver production has lagged over the last two years for the Bears. Ashtyn Hawkins, a transfer from Texas State, can remedy that. He had 55-plus receptions in each of the last two seasons for the Bobcats while Baylor didn’t have a single pass catcher hit 40 in 2022 or 2023. New OC Jake Spavital coached Hawkins for two seasons at Texas State, and that familiarity should make Hawkins’ integration into Baylor’s offense that much smoother. — Khan

BYU: A point of emphasis in the offseason was finding someone who could aid in stopping the rush — BYU ranked No. 112 nationally in run defense — so second-year defensive coordinator Jay Hill brought in a transfer from his former stomping grounds of Weber State. Jack Kelly immediately jumps in as BYU’s starting strongside linebacker, and the Cougars are hoping for a ton of production from him. — Wasserman

Cincinnati: Cincinnati was sixth in the nation last year in rushing, averaging 217.1 yards per game on the ground. Veteran running back Corey Kiner returns, as does the entire offensive line, but Evan Pryor — who showed flashes at Ohio State before transferring to UC — could give the Bearcats more explosive playmaking on offense as they work in Indiana transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby. — Wasserman

Colorado: The obvious answer would be any of the newcomers on the offensive line, since nailing those takes and developing real depth is of the utmost importance. But let’s go to the other side of the ball. Arizona State transfer B.J. Green and Pitt transfer Dayon Hayes are experienced pass rushers who’ve combined for 46 tackles for loss in their careers. The Buffs brought in a lot more help on the D-line this offseason and need to find a way to get a lot more stops. — Olson

I WANT IT ALL #SkoBuffs 🦬#GoBuffs pic.twitter.com/rUMt2FFzgG

— DayonHayes (@dayonhayes00) April 21, 2024

Houston: No. 2 on Willie Fritz’s five-pronged plan to win is “control the running game.” Parker Jenkins, a true sophomore coming off a solid freshman season, should help the Cougars do just that. He has 10.6-second 100-meter dash speed but also the power and contact balance to churn extra yardage. Don’t be shocked if Jenkins is a 1,000-yard back this year. — Khan

Iowa State: Domonique Orange is not a household name yet, but the 6-foot-4, 335-pound nose guard has All-Big 12 potential and is someone the Cyclones had to fight hard to keep with serious SEC interest if he hit the portal. He’s going into his junior season and needs to be a force up front for a unit that ranked third in the Big 12 in scoring defense last season and has a ton of returning production. — Olson

Kansas: The post-spring addition of Texas A&M transfer center Bryce Foster could end up being really important for the Jayhawks. Mike Novitsky was an invaluable three-year starter and leader at that position for Lance Leipold and is tough to replace. If Foster, a 28-game starter and former Freshman All-American at A&M, can come in and solidify that spot, it would allow Kansas to keep Michael Ford Jr. at guard and ideally put its best starting five on the field. — Olson

Kansas State: There is a legitimate chance that Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson will become a star by the middle of the season. That’s exciting. Also exciting? The Wildcats brought in one of the most explosive young ball carriers in the country — Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards. He is a real home run hitter and could add an extra dynamic to an offense that should make Kansas State appointment television in the fall. — Wasserman

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys have Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon II returning in the backfield and plenty of experienced receivers. Quarterback Alan Bowman, the seventh-year senior who threw for 3,460 yards, 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions last year, will need to take a step forward and be even better if the Pokes are going to win the Big 12. — Khan

TCU: Quarterback Josh Hoover showed promise as a redshirt freshman last season, and the best thing for a young QB in the passing game is a security blanket. Tight end Jared Wiley, the leading pass catcher (47) in 2023, is off to the NFL, but right behind him was JP Richardson, with 46 receptions for 536 yards as a first-year transfer from Oklahoma State. Richardson has the talent and experience to expand his production even further as a sure-handed go-to target as Hoover continues to develop. — Williams

Texas Tech: Micah Hudson was the first five-star recruit Texas Tech has signed in the modern recruiting era. Coach Joey McGuire expects Hudson to play a lot, and his maturity combined with his talent should make him a dangerous weapon in the Tech offense, especially with running back Tahj Brooks taking so much attention from opposing defenses. — Khan

UCF: KJ Jefferson, a former starter at Arkansas who replaces John Rhys Plumlee, is a big-bodied quarterback who can be used as a battering ram. Considering UCF coach Gus Malzahn won a national title with Cam Newton at Auburn, you have to expect he’ll know exactly how to draw up an offense around the veteran quarterback. — Wasserman

Utah: The Utes have an interesting stable of young running backs but are hoping they can count on Micah Bernard as a solid RB1. The sixth-year senior missed 11 games last season due to injury but brings a lot to the table as a rusher, receiver and pass protector and has produced more than 1,900 career all-purpose yards. — Olson

West Virginia: West Virginia has established an identity as a running team, but what if wide receiver Jaden Bray is a huge hit from the transfer portal? The 6-2, 200-pound import from Oklahoma State had 30 receptions for 382 yards and two touchdowns a year ago. If Bray emerges as a consistent threat — combined with Garrett Greene’s expected growth at QB — the Mountaineers could have a nasty offense this year. — Wasserman

(Photos of KJ Jefferson, Dylan Edwards: Brett Rojo, Tim Heitman / USA Today)