Why the defending champion Rangers could be deadline sellers; plus more MLB notes

Shocking as it might be for a defending World Series champion to sell at the trade deadline, the strategy would not be unprecedented. And if the Texas Rangers sell, they could go even further than the last champion to reboot, the 2014 Boston Red Sox.

The Rangers (42-48) have yet to determine their course. After sweeping the Tampa Bay Rays and winning five of their past seven, perhaps they are about to go on a long-awaited run. But they remain 7 1/2 games back in the race for the third American League wild card, and their playoff odds are hovering around 10 percent. Their front office is doing what every responsible front office does at this time of year — planning for buy and sell contingencies.

The difference between the Rangers and the 2014 Red Sox is that the Rangers would not necessarily limit their conversations to mostly players on expiring contracts, according to sources briefed on their thinking. They also could move players under control beyond this season in an attempt to compete again quickly in 2025.

The 2014 Red Sox traded, among others, starting pitchers Jake Peavy, Jon Lester and John Lackey and reliever Andrew Miller. Of those, only Lackey was under control for the following season. And the Red Sox’s acquisitions included major leaguers such as Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig and Joe Kelly, as well as Eduardo Rodriguez, then a top pitching prospect.

The Red Sox’s plan did not go as intended — their 2015 club finished last, and general manager Ben Cherington resigned in August when the team hired Dave Dombrowski as club president. The Rangers, though, could dramatically shake up the deadline if they sell, adding upper-level prospects to a core that includes young players such as Josh Jung, Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, as well as veterans Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jonah Heim.

Their players on expiring contracts include starting pitchers Michael Lorenzen and Andrew Heaney, swingman José Ureña and relievers David Robertson and Kirby Yates. Nathan Eovaldi, who needs to throw 69 more innings to vest a $20 million player option and has limited no-trade protection, also might be considered part of the group. So could Max Scherzer, though it’s far from certain he would waive his no-trade clause at the deadline for the third time in four years.

In a market short on position players, the Rangers also could listen on first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, center fielder Leody Taveras and perhaps even Adolis García, all of whom are performing below expectations and under club control at rising salaries for two more seasons. Right-hander Jon Gray, under contract for $13 million next season, would be another possibility. A team might prefer Gray at that salary more than paying higher prices on the free-agent market.

All of these moves would warrant consideration in part because ownership restricted payroll growth this season, citing uncertainty with the future of the team’s regional sports network. Ownership could follow a similar path in 2025, particularly if the club fails to generate the additional postseason revenue it did last season.

A trade of Gray perhaps would clear the money necessary to re-sign Eovaldi or a comparable starting pitcher. Ezequiel Duran could replace Lowe at first and Carter could replace Taveras in center. For García, who hit 39 homers with an .836 OPS last season, the Rangers likely would need to be overwhelmed.

The next two and a half weeks will be critical. The Rangers visit the Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros just before the All-Star break, then host the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox immediately after. If things go poorly, it’s not out of the question the Rangers could jump the market while other teams remain in limbo. Nine months after winning the World Series, their season is effectively on the line.

Urgency for O’s

Here’s an alarming little fact about the Orioles, one that will only increase their push to add a controllable starter before the deadline: Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich are their only three current starters under team control beyond this season.

In other words, the Orioles will need to add as many as three starters before 2025.

Even with an expected payroll boost under new ownership, the team does not figure to address all of its rotation needs in free agency. Its surplus of position-player prospects only adds to the likelihood of a trade for a starting pitcher — provided general manager Mike Elias is willing to be the high bidder in a limited market, as he was for Corbin Burnes.

Like the Rangers, the Orioles can be open to deals for higher-salaried veterans, knowing those players can be replaced internally. Such deals potentially would disrupt the chemistry of the team with the best record in the American League. But they also would open spots for younger players who might play bigger roles in the team’s future.

Among the long-term options:

Coby Mayo (21 homers, 1.044 OPS at Triple A entering Sunday) supplanting first baseman Ryan Mountcastle; Colton Cowser taking over center for Cedric Mullins; outfielders Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers sliding into roles currently occupied by Anthony Santander and Austin Hays. Santander is a potential free agent. Mullins and Hays are under club control for one additional season, Mountcastle for two more.

The Orioles would not want to make all of those moves at once. They might not want to make any of them right away. For Garrett Crochet, the White Sox will want prospects such as Mayo and second baseman Connor Norby, not veterans in arbitration.

The point is, the Orioles are deep enough in talent to be creative. Keep in mind, too, that Elias has demonstrated a knack for acquiring under-the-radar pitching talent in lesser trades. Kyle Bradish came for Dylan Bundy, Povich for Jorge López, prospect Chayce McDermott for Trey Mancini. A blockbuster, then, is not the only path available for Baltimore.

Intrigue in St. Louis

The St. Louis Cardinals are yet another team to watch. The pending returns of several injured players potentially could leave them with multiple major leaguers to trade, provided no one else gets hurt.

Outfielder Lars Nootbaar is expected back next week, catcher Ivan Herrera before the All-Star break. Center fielder Tommy Edman, out all season recovering from right wrist surgery, is on track to return after the break.

“The big thing for the Cardinals is, will we score enough runs?” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said. “Getting Nootbaar and Edman back could change that calculus. We’ll see.”

Virtually every preseason analysis of the Cardinals included the caveat that the team could not succeed without big seasons out of first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and third baseman Nolan Arenado. Well, both have been disappointments, as has another of the team’s right-handed hitters, Jordan Walker, who was demoted on April 24. Yet the Cardinals currently hold the third NL wild card.

Which isn’t to say all is well. The Cardinals’ biggest offensive problem, one to which Goldschmidt and Arenado are contributing, is that they can’t hit lefties. Their OPS against left-handed pitching ranks 29th in the majors, ahead of only the Marlins. Two years ago, they were first. Last year, when they won 71 games, their fewest in a full season since 1990, they were 20th.

Walker and the switch-hitting Edman were expected to help balance the lineup, but Walker entered Sunday with only a .686 OPS at Triple A and is not even in the conversation for promotion. Edman’s return as an impact player, meanwhile, is hardly guaranteed. His recovery already has taken longer than expected, and wrist injuries are notoriously problematic for hitters.

The Cardinals’ other concern is their starting pitching, unless they expect their 34-and-over workhorses — Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Miles Mikolas — to be healthy and effective all season. Andre Pallante has been a revelation as a starter, and lefty Steven Matz could return from a lower back strain in mid to late August. But the Cardinals are one injury away from needing Matthew Liberatore or Zack Thompson to join Pallante in the rotation.

Mozeliak downplayed the urgency to add another starter, citing, in part, the presences of Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy at Triple A.

“We’re not going to chase something or do something that doesn’t make sense or you have to overpay for,” Mozeliak said.

OK, but Mozeliak should have flexibility to maneuver. Herrera could be expendable with the emergence of Pedro Páges. Ditto for Dylan Carlson with the returns of Nootbaar and Edman. And other combinations of players could be offered as well.

The Cardinals entered Sunday ranked 24th in runs per game. They had played 29 one-run games, tied for second in the majors behind the Cubs’ 33. And their offensive problems threaten to unravel their pitching. Breaking more games open would help preserve the bullpen. So could the addition of another starter.

The Braves’ latest pitching prodigy

Want to see something stunning? Check out Atlanta Braves rookie Spencer Schwellenbach’s pitch breakdown Saturday night, when he allowed only one run in six innings against the Philadelphia Phillies. His mix was all the more impressive, considering it was only his seventh major-league start:

Four-seam fastball: 17
Splitter: 16
Slider: 14
Curveball: 14
Sinker: 13
Cutter: 7

Schwellenbach, 24, has shown remarkable aptitude since joining the Braves on May 29, adding a sinker, tweaking grips on all three of his fastballs and moving from the third-base side to the middle of the rubber. He has had no choice but to learn on the job after throwing only 110 innings in the minors and 31 2/3 at Nebraska.

Entering 2020, Schwellenbach thought his days as a pitcher were over. He was playing shortstop at Nebraska. He hadn’t pitched since high school. And he had undergone elbow surgery the year before. But his arm got healthy during COVID-19, prompting him to call Nebraska coach Will Bolt with the idea of returning to the mound.

“I remember it being a conversation of mutual excitement,” Bolt said. “He was cautiously optimistic that he could do it. I didn’t want to push too much because of his injury past but knew he was getting healthy. He was determined to be a shortstop and he was a really good one. We certainly wanted to see him on the mound as well.”

Bolt and his coaching staff came up with a plan for Schwellenbach to both pitch and continue at shortstop. Schwellenbach became the team’s closer, and his 0.57 ERA in 31 2/3 innings was enough to persuade the Braves to draft him in the second round of the 2021 draft, even though he needed Tommy John surgery.

“There were days in the fall of 2020 where he did some things that were pretty incredible,” Bolt said. “I still think he saw pitching as a hobby. We were pretty giddy with excitement over his stuff and command. It was effortless. He looked like a big leaguer right away, honestly.

“Some clubs still loved him as a shortstop and hitter. He was a truly plus defender with a 70 arm (on the 20 to 80 scouting scale). What he’s done is incredible with so little experience as a pitcher for us and in minor leagues. His mindset is a separator.”

Schwellenbach has solidified the fifth starter’s job for the Braves. The team will spend the rest of the month monitoring his progress, the rehabilitation assignments of AJ Smith-Shawver and Ian Anderson and the performances of Bryce Elder and others at Triple A.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos already is exploring the market for outfielders, engaging in preliminary discussions with clubs, according to sources briefed on his conversations. But Charlie Morton is 40. Reynaldo López is starting for the first time since 2019. And Chris Sale has a long injury history. The Braves want to continue building in extra rest for their starters. They might need to supplement the current group, too.

The Dombrowski way

For all the talk about how David Dombrowski is a win-now executive, he mostly has refrained from trading top prospects since joining the Phillies in Dec. 2020, focusing mostly on free agents to upgrade the club.

The Phillies’ spending under owner John Middleton, which began during Matt Klentak’s tenure, has cost the franchise young talent, but in a different form. In five of the past six years, the Phillies sacrificed high draft picks after signing free agents who rejected qualifying offers.

In 2018, they lost their second- and third-rounders for Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta. The Phillies also lost second-rounders for Bryce Harper in 2019, Zack Wheeler in ‘20, Nick Castellanos in ‘22, and Trea Turner in ‘23. And in 2021, they re-signed J.T. Realmuto, so they did not receive draft-pick compensation.

Where has all that led the Phillies? To building exactly what the Red Sox wanted when they hired Chaim Bloom to replace Dombrowski — a sustainable contender. Yes, Middleton spent big to make it happen. But an added benefit was that the Phillies could keep their top prospects, rather than trade them for elite talent.

The Phillies have a full slate of picks this year, starting at No. 27 overall. Before the season started, The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked their farm system 19th in the majors. Baseball America ranked it 21st. But Dombrowski, like most lead executives, believes his system deserves more recognition, saying, “It doesn’t get the acclaim it should.”

No need to be alarmed!

It’s the time of year when position changes by top prospects raise eyebrows. Such was the case when Mariners Double-A catcher Harry Ford, No. 61 in Law’s preseason Top 100, made his first career starts in left field on Friday and Saturday nights.

Mariners general manager Justin Hollander, however, said Ford requested to play in the field on days he was not catching, expressing that he was bored as a DH. Ford catches about 60 percent of the time and believed he would be more valuable to his team if he could play a position rather than simply hit. So, he is not being showcased for a trade, or being prepped for a promotion as an outfielder.

One other Mariners note: The team added about a half-dozen professional scouts during the offseason, approximately doubling the size of a department it cut back during COVID-19. Hollander said the team felt it lacked a full range of information on both opposing players and their own without eyes in the ballpark as well on video. Many teams now scout primarily through video, preferring to save money by eliminating scouts.

And finally …

Phillies manager Rob Thomson, speaking to the Fox broadcasters on Saturday, told a great story about Bryce Harper’s powers of recovery. The story was from the spring of 2019. Harper, who had just joined the Phillies, got hit on his right ankle by a 98-mph fastball.

“Four accountants upstairs passed out,” Thomson joked.

Harper left the game. Thomson, then the Phillies’ bench coach, checked on him afterward.

“Don’t worry, I’ll be fine,” Harper said. “I don’t bruise, and I don’t swell.”

Thomson recalls thinking something along the lines of, “All right, tough guy.”

The next morning, Harper was on the training table. He took off his sock and Thomson couldn’t believe what he saw.

It was just as Harper promised: No bruising, no swelling.

(Photo of Nathaniel Lowe and Andrew Heaney: Bailey Orr / Texas Rangers/Getty Images)