The Great Quarterback Derby of 2024 will begin for the Denver Broncos in a little more than two weeks. You have questions about how it will all shake out so let’s jump right to them in this week’s mailbag.
(Editor’s note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity.)
In your estimation, which Broncos quarterback will emerge as the starter for Week 1? Or might it be a tossup all throughout training camp? — Ed H.
In a perfect world, the answer would crystalize quickly and unequivocally. Two weeks into training camp, one quarterback would be so superior to the others that the decision would essentially be made for Sean Payton. It rarely turns out that way, though, so it comes down to a judgment call. It requires a staff to make a projection. I ultimately believe it will be rookie Bo Nix who becomes the starter because he’ll limit his mistakes in camp and play well enough in relation to the other two quarterbacks (Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson) that the staff will bet on his continued improvement through on-the-job training.
The only way Nix won’t be the starter, in my estimation, is if he’s vastly outplayed by one of the other quarterbacks in camp. There were no signs during the offseason program to suggest that will be the case, but let’s see how all three passers perform at the start of camp.
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What the Broncos learned about rookie QB Bo Nix during first offseason program
Let’s assume all three quarterbacks look decent in training camp and in the exhibition games. If the Broncos decide to go with Nix as the Week 1 starter, do the Broncos keep both Stidham and Wilson going into the season? Or would they look to trade one of them to a QB-needy team coming out of the preseason? — Mike B.
This would depend on a number of factors. Do multiple teams suffer injuries at the quarterback position during the preseason? Do Stidham and Wilson get enough reps — and perform well enough with those reps — to showcase themselves? Do the Broncos think they can get by with only two quarterbacks this season? It’s possible the Broncos keep all three quarterbacks. They’ve said they want a chance to work with Wilson, and he may be a hard guy to release and then sign back to your practice squad because another team could pick him up as a virtually no-cost flyer. We need to see how the competition plays out at the start of camp to have a better idea of how they solve the roster puzzle at quarterback.
How long do you think the Broncos will carry on with this three-quarterback rotation? — Geoffrey G.
This is one of the biggest questions entering training camp. The Broncos had a mostly even split of first-team reps during the offseason program. Payton was asked during minicamp whether he would replicate that format when camp began in late July. His response: “We will have a plan when we start camp and then we begin to make some decisions relative to reps and all of that.”
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My read: The Broncos may use the run-up to the first preseason game on Aug. 11 to continue evaluating the quarterbacks in an environment similar to what we saw in the offseason, but after that it will be, at most, a two-man race. Payton has said making the right decision about the starter is more important than the timing of that decision, adding that the race could potentially last until the week before the Sept. 8 opener in Seattle. But realistically, the Broncos will have a new starter who needs the valuable reps training offers. You can’t do that while giving equal reps to three quarterbacks for the entirety of training camp.
What’s one bold prediction you’re willing to make about the roster? Either a cut, an extension or someone unexpected winning a starting job are the areas I’m thinking. — Isaac R.
Great question. Here’s one that’s a little out there: The Broncos will add a wide receiver with past ties to Sean Payton and/or members of his staff. That could be Hunter Renfrow, who was with current Denver pass-game coordinator John Morton in Las Vegas in 2021. Or perhaps it is somebody like Michael Thomas, who played in offenses in New Orleans designed by Payton, offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and new Broncos special assistant Pete Carmichael.
Yes, the Broncos have depth at wide receiver. Tim Patrick is returning from last year’s Achilles injury. They added draft picks in Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele. They signed Josh Reynolds in free agency. But it wouldn’t surprise me if the Broncos kept open a spot for a familiar weapon as they try to build the right infrastructure for Nix.
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What is your hunch about Courtland Sutton if he decides to hold out during training camp? Will he be traded or cut? He’s a nice player, but he doesn’t seem essential to the offense right now. It might even be better to let the younger players get more reps during this phase. — Chris C.
I don’t envision Sutton holding out. He already came to mandatory minicamp, proving that his quest for leverage has its limits. Missing all of training camp can cost a player up to $2 million in fines, which is substantial for a player who has no guaranteed money left on his deal. I would disagree, though, with the assertion that Sutton isn’t essential to Denver’s hopes of improving on offense. He is the team’s top wide receiver, an important veteran presence for a team installing a new quarterback. There is no one else on the roster with Sutton’s bonafides. I think the two sides will find a way to resolve the contract dispute, even if it is with largely symbolic adjustments like, say, more performance escalators for Sutton.
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“He is important to what we are doing,” Payton said of Sutton last month, “and I think he knows that.”
Do you think the Broncos will try to re-sign Garett Bolles? Or is it reasonable to assume this is his last year with the team? Also, if the “experts” are right and the Broncos are bad enough to draft in the top 10 in 2025, what do you think their priority will be with their first pick? — Reggie S.
I believe the Broncos are content to let this season play with Bolles and then evaluate their left tackle position from there. Bolles has been largely durable, save for the broken leg that forced him to miss most of the 2022 season, but he’s 32 and the Broncos are paying big money to Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers, and a big extension for Quinn Meinerz could be coming at some point this year. If Bolles gets off to a great start this season, perhaps the two sides try to get something like a two-year extension done, but my guess is they’ll let things play out this season with the team’s longest-tenured player.
As for next year’s draft, it’s obviously early, but the Broncos will have a need at virtually every premium position — outside of quarterback, they hope. A top-10 pick could be a path to a game-changing edge rusher, a stalwart left tackle to protect Nix’s blindside the next five-plus years or an explosive playmaker for him to throw to. The Broncos need more blue-chip players, no matter the position.
With the running back room so full, do you see Samaje Perine being on the roster bubble? If so, who has the ability to be the third-down back? — Mike T.
This is a great question. Perine’s role last season was curious. A major reason he signed with the Broncos was that he looked at Payton’s history of giving ample carries to multiple running backs and saw an opportunity for more of a workload than he had in Cincinnati backing up Joe Mixon. Instead, his 53 carries were the fewest he’s had in a full season since entering the league in 2017. On the flip side, his 50 catches for 455 yards were both career-best marks, much of that coming as a key cog in Denver’s two-minute offense. Plus, he was their best running back in pass protection.
Perine does enough to make him a valuable piece of the roster, but does Denver believe it can get those same things out of rookie Audric Estimé? If they think they can — and if Javonte Williams shows pop in training camp heading into the final season of his rookie contract — then Perine could be vulnerable to trade or release.
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Did Audric Estimé have knee issues in college? I think he was a good draft pick, but the injury in OTAs has me wondering if he will ever play that much. Once you start down the knee injury path, it seems hard to avoid subsequent problems. What is his status? — R F.
Estimé was durable in college, never missing a game due to injury. There was nothing flagged with him medically during the pre-draft process. It’s part of the reason Payton said last month that Denver had a third-round grade on Estimé, who it was able to select in the fifth round. Estimé had “a small scope procedure,” during OTAs and a PRP (platelet-rich plasma) injection, according to Payton. Everything came back clean, the coach said, and Estimé is expected to be “full go” by the start of training camp.
In short, there is nothing to be alarmed about with Estimé at this point, but his progress will be important to monitor.
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Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin on mission in Year 2: 'It's just the way he's wired'
What is the area of the Broncos’ roster that you think has improved the most from last season? Which part of the roster do you think got worse than it was a year ago? — Mark J.
The defensive line should be much better. John Franklin-Myers and Malcolm Roach should be significant upgrades over Jonathan Harris and Mike Purcell. Zach Allen and D.J. Jones both finished 2023 strong and now have a year of experience playing together from which to pull. That group’s improvement is critical to Denver being better against the run.
I think the team is worse in the secondary until proven otherwise. Justin Simmons had 30 interceptions for the Broncos since being drafted by the team in 2016. He was the communication nerve center for a number of strong defenses during his time in Denver. That’s not a simple thing to replace. The Broncos are high on the options to replace him, including free-agent acquisition Brandon Jones and third-year player Caden Sterns, but they must also find a new starting answer at cornerback opposite Pat Surtain II. There is just a lot we have to see in the defensive backfield.
(Top photo of Box Nix: RJ Sangosti / The Denver Post)
