If your current fantasy roster still even partially resembles the team you drafted, you’re likely in the minority. For the rest of us normal people, I’ll be using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s MLB waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy baseball statistics in regard to control, batted ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap gems to grab now before the squares figure it out next week. At the very bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, as well as two-start pitchers and speculative adds.
(Stats are courtesy of our friends at Trumedia and capture action through
Advertisement
Here we go…
Starting Pitchers
As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are the ability to generate whiffs (first list below) and limit hard contact (second list below). While showing up on one of these two lists may be noise, I’m treating an appearance on both as a signal to immediately pull the trigger.
Available Starters: Multiple >30% Whiff Offerings (min. 20 Pitches, Past 30 Days)
- Ryan Feltner, COL — Changeup 37.5%, Slider 33.3%, Curveball 33.3%
- Frankie Montas, CIN — Split-Finger 47.1%, Slider 38.1%
- Chris Flexen, CHW — Curveball 44.0%, Changeup 35.7%
- Tobias Myers, MIL — Changeup 44.0%, Slider 34.4%
- Spencer Arrighetti, HOU — Curveball 41.9%, Sweeper 41.2%
- Logan Allen, CLE — Changeup 34.9%, Sweeper 30.4%
- Dakota Hudson, COL — Slider 34.0%, Curveball 30.0%
- Alec Marsh, KC — Slider 33.3%, Curveball 30.0%
- Bryse Wilson, MIL — Curveball 33.3%, Cutter 30.9%
- Mitchell Parker, WAS — Curveball 33.3%, Slider 31.3%
- Aaron Civale. MIL — Sweeper 31.3%, Curveball 32.0%
- Carson Spiers, CIN — 4-Seam Fastball 30.2%, Sweeper 29.7%
Available Starters: ≤.330 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only (xwOBAcon, Past 30 Days)
- Yariel Rodriguez, TOR — 0.277 xwOBAcon
- Cade Povich, BAL — 0.293 xwOBAcon
- Miles Mikolas, STL — 0.311 xwOBAcon
- Kyle Harrison, SF — 0.311 xwOBAcon
- Drew Thorpe, CHW — 0.319 xwOBAcon
- Kyle Freeland, COL — 0.320 xwOBAcon
- Valente Bellozo, MIA — 0.321 xwOBAcon
- Adam Mazur, SD — 0.333 xwOBAcon
- Ben Lively, CLE — 0.335 xwOBAcon
Hidden Gem: I‘m usually the last one in a rush to add starters returning from the IL, but I do make exceptions for lower body injuries (especially when there’s a chance to confirm some old priors). I was pleasantly surprised to see San Francisco’s young lefty Kyle Harrison on our second list — he barely hung on after rolling his ankle in the team’s weight room, costing him two weeks on the schedule. Yes, this offseason I pegged Harrison as a legitimate sleeper candidate in his 22-year-old season after posting a +25% K-BB throughout his MiLB career, but that’s only one piece of the puzzle. My biggest problem with Harrison’s approach was the +70% hyper-utilization of his four-seamer. Beside the fact it’s just a good but not great standalone pitch (96 Stuff+), I wouldn’t recommend that type of use for anything short of Mariano’s famous cutter. Harrison finally started throttling the fastball for more slurves in June and it paid off immediately — he posted back-t0-back quality starts against two tough offenses (ARI and HOU). Unfortunately, he followed that up with the workout mishap and here we are. I’m getting back into the Harrison business while the gamble’s cheap for a chance at a backend starter with regular six-inning potential.
Available Hitters: >106.5 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Jesús Sánchez, OF, MIA — 109.9 m.p.h. EV
- Shea Langeliers, C, OAK — 109.2 m.p.h. EV
- Brent Rooker, OF, OAK — 109.2 m.p.h. EV
- Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT — 108.9 m.p.h. EV
- Jake Burger, 3B, MIA — 107.7 m.p.h. EV
- Heliot Ramos, OF, SF — 107.7 m.p.h. EV
- Michael Toglia, 1B, COL — 107.5 m.p.h. EV
- Hunter Goodman, OF, COL — 107.0 m.p.h. EV
- Tyrone Taylor, OF, NYM — 107.0 m.p.h. EV
- Zach Neto, SS, LAA — 106.7 m.p.h. EV
- Cal Raleigh, C, SEA — 106.7 m.p.h. EV
Available Hitters: <25% Chase Rate And >.385 xwOBAcon (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Mitch Garver, UT, SEA — 17.0% Chase, 0.511 xwOBAcon
- Hunter Renfroe, OF, KC — 23.1% Chase, 0.472 xwOBAcon
- Daniel Schneemann, SS, CLE — 21.1% Chase, 0.465 xwOBAcon
- Brandon Marsh, OF, PHI — 22.5% Chase, 0.444 xwOBAcon
- Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT — 22.6% Chase, 0.442 xwOBAcon
- Michael Toglia, 1B, COL — 23.8% Chase, 0.435 xwOBAcon
- Trent Grisham, OF, NYY — 10.6% Chase, 0.430 xwOBAcon
- Justyn-Henry Malloy, OF, DET — 19.9% Chase, 0.427 xwOBAcon
- Ben Rice, 1B, NYY — 16.2% Chase, 0.424 xwOBAcon
- Ryan Bliss, 2B, SEA — 21.3% Chase, 0.419 xwOBAcon
- Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF — 19.5% Chase, 0.417 xwOBAcon
- Carlos Santana, 1B, MIN — 23.9% Chase, 0.405 xwOBAcon
- Jack Suwinski, OF, PIT — 19.1% Chase, 0.404 xwOBAcon
- Spencer Horwitz, 2B, TOR ��� 23.5% Chase, 0.403 xwOBAcon
- Patrick Bailey, C, SF — 20.2% Chase, 0.392 xwOBAcon
- Rob Refsnyder, OF, BOS — 18.7% Chase, 0.390 xwOBAcon
Available Hitters: ≥17% Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drive Per Plate Appearance (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Ernie Clement, 3B, TOR — 25.9% Pulled FBLD%
- David Hamilton, SS, BOS — 21.8% Pulled FBLD%
- José Caballero, SS, TB — 21.7% Pulled FBLD%
- Brandon Lowe, 2B, TB — 19.5% Pulled FBLD%
- Carlos Santana, 1B, MIN — 18.3% Pulled FBLD%
- Wilmer Flores, 1B, SF — 18.3% Pulled FBLD%
- Dylan Carlson, OF, STL — 18.3% Pulled FBLD%
- David Dahl, OF, PHI — 18.2% Pulled FBLD%
- Adam Duvall, OF, ATL — 18.1% Pulled FBLD%
- Paul DeJong, SS, CWS — 17.9% Pulled FBLD%
- Harrison Bader, OF, NYM — 17.6% Pulled FBLD%
- Hunter Renfroe, OF, KC — 17.2% Pulled FBLD%
Hidden Gem: Timing is to fantasy what location is to real estate. Just when you thought we were heading back to the churn-mill for the same old recycled players, news breaks from the Motor City that the Tigers plan to promote Parker Meadows back to the big club. Detroit is in desperate need of a jolt, riding the struggle bus on offense all year, ranking bottom-5 in team BA, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. It feels like an eternity ago that Meadows was hitting nukes, stealing bases and basically destroying every spring training pitcher in his path (.358/.393/.679), earning an opening day spot with Detroit. Then, reality hit… hard. Meadows only lasted 85 PA (.096 BA, 38% K, 33 wRC+) before the front office had seen enough and finally pulled the plug.
Advertisement
Sometimes it’s nerves, and other times it’s seasoning, but the fact remains that MLB is incredibly hard — and I still view the rookie as the player archetype worthy of garnering all that draft helium this spring. Meadows has been great in Triple A as a five-category contributor through 221 PA (.298 BA / 38 R / 24 RBI / 8 HR / 19 SB), but most importantly, he’s cleaned up his disciplinary approach (6.3% K-BB, 23% Chase, 10% Swinging Strike) without sacrificing those critical pulled FBLDs (16.5%). Meadows homered out of the No. 8 spot in the lineup in his Friday return, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ultimately works his way into the top third of the lineup, if not leadoff, with an every-day role carved out for him. We play to win the game and Parker Meadows playing to his full potential is this week’s best chance to achieve that.
Relief Pitchers
Targeting roles over skills is something I’ve always preached when drafting closers, but zeroing in on stat combinations like elite command plus swing-and-miss-ability could help us identify the potential next men up, especially in more vulnerable bullpens. If you want to go deeper on RPs, I also strongly suggest Greg Jewett’s weekly column — nobody does relievers better.
Relievers: >15% Swinging Strike And <34% Ball Rates (min 20 IP)
- Dedniel Nunez, NYM — 15.5% SwStrk, 28.1% Ball
- Dylan Lee, ATL — 18.7% SwStrk, 29.9% Ball
- Enyel De Los Santos, SDP — 15.7% SwStrk, 31.8% Ball
- Jose Ruiz, PHI — 15.0% SwStrk, 31.9% Ball
- Jeff Hoffman, PHI — 15.9% SwStrk, 32.0% Ball
- Griffin Jax, MIN — 17.5% SwStrk, 32.1% Ball
- A.J. Minter, ATL — 15.7% SwStrk, 32.3% Ball
- Ryne Stanek, SEA — 15.1% SwStrk, 33.0% Ball
- Justin Slaten, BOS — 14.9% SwStrk, 34.0% Ball
Top waiver wire adds by position
Catcher
- Gabriel Moreno, ARI — +10 teams
- Hunter Goodman, COL — 10/12 teams
- Patrick Bailey, SF — +12 teams
- Connor Wong, BOS — 12/15 teams
- Shea Langeliers, OAK — +15 teams
First Base
- Michael Toglia, COL— +10 teams
- Jose Miranda, MIN — 10/12 teams
- Nate Lowe, TEX — +12 teams
- Nolan Schanuel, LAA — 12/15 teams
- Rowdy Tellez, PIT — 12/15 teams
- Juan Yepez, WAS — +15 teams
Second Base
- Jonathan India, CIN — +10 teams
- Spencer Horwitz, TOR — 10/12 teams
- Luis García Jr., WAS — +12 teams
- Zach Gelof, OAK — 12/15 teams
- Keston Hiura, LAA — +15 teams
Shortstop
- Jackson Merrill, SD — +10 teams
- Zach Neto, LAA — 10/12 teams
- Brooks Lee, MIN — +12 teams
- Daniel Schneemann, CLE — 12/15 teams
- Ernie Clement, TOR — +15 teams
Third Base
- Mark Vientos, NYM — +10 teams
- Colt Keith, DET— 10/12 teams
- Lenyn Sosa, CHW — +12 teams
- Eugenio Suarez, ARI — 12/15 teams
- Justyn-Henry Malloy, DET — +15 teams
Outfield, +10/12 Team
- James Wood, WAS
- Alec Burleson, STL
- Heliot Ramos, SF
- Parker Meadows, DET
- Cedric Mullins, BAL
- Trevor Larnach, MIN
- Brenton Doyle, COL
- Bryan De La Cruz, MIA
- Luke Raley, SEA
- Jose Siri, TB
Outfield, +12/15 Team
- MJ Melendez, KC
- Andy Pages, LAD
- Heston Kjerstad, BAL
- Adam Duvall, ATL
- Tommy Pham, CHW
- Alex Verdugo, NYY
- Jesús Sánchez, MIA
- Tyrone Taylor, NYM
- Jesse Winker, WAS
- Sal Frelick, MIL
Outfield, +15 Team/Only
- Luis Matos, SF
- Harrison Bader, NYM
- Hunter Renfroe, KC
- Jake McCarthy, ARI
- Jo Adell, LAA
- JJ Bleday, OAK
- Josh Palacios, PIT
- Brent Rooker, OAK
- Michael Siani, STL
- Jake Meyers, HOU
- Jacob Young, WAS
- Johan Rojas, PHI
- Dominic Canzone, SEA
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC
- Masataka Yoshida, BOS
- Connor Joe, PIT
- Kyle Isbel, KC
- Richie Palacios, TB
- Stuart Fairchild, CIN
- Mark Canha, DET
- Andrew McCutchen, PIT
- Mickey Moniak, LAA
- Miguel Andujar, OAK
- Jack Suwinski, PIT
- Jhonkensy Noel, CLE
- Wenceel Pérez, DET
- Gavin Sheets, CHW
- Bryce Johnson, SD
- Blake Perkins, MIL
- Nick Gordon, MIA
- Andrew Benintendi, CHW
- Leody Taveras, TEX
- Garrett Mitchell, MIL
- Jonny DeLuca, TB
- Jake Cave, COL
- David Peralta, SD
- Corey Julks, CHW
- Lawrence Butler, OAK
- Tyler Freeman, CLE
Hitter Stashes
- Colby Mayo, BAL
- James Outman, LAD
Starters
- Shane Baz, TB
- Taj Bradley, TB
- Gavin Stone, LAD
- Kyle Harrison, SF
- Christian Scott, NYM
- DJ Herz, MIA
- Simeon Woods-Richardson, MIN
- Frankie Montas, CIN
- Landon Knack, LAD
- Cade Povich, BAL
- Drew Thorpe, CHW
- Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL
- Hayden Wesneski, CHC
- Mitchell Parker, WAS
- Yariel Rodríguez, TOR
- Hayden Birdsong, SF
- Michael Mercado, PHI
- Josh Winckowski, BOS
- Andre Pallante, STL
- Spencer Arrighetti, HOU
- Michael Lorenzen, TEX
- Yilber Diaz. ARI
- J.P. Sears, OAK
- Tobias Myers, MIL
- Ben Lively, CLE
- Joey Estes, OAK
- Griffin Canning, LAA
- Alec Marsh, KC
- Colin Rea, MIL
- Cole Irvin, BAL
- Carson Spiers, CIN
- Dean Kremer, BAL
- Slade Cecconi, ARI
- Shawn Dubin, HOU
- Davis Daniel, LAA
- Adam Mazur, SD
- Trevor Rogers, MIA
- Hogan Harris, OAK
- Logan Allen, CLE
- Mitch Spence, OAK
- Luis Medina, OAK
- Jonathan Cannon, CHW
- Bailey Falter, PIT
- Roddery Muñoz, MIA
- Ryan Feltner, COL
Starting Pitcher Stashes
- Robbie Ray, SF
- Jeffrey Springs, TB
Relievers
- Aroldis Chapman, PIT
- Yimi García. TOR
- Ryne Stanek, SEA
- Jeff Hoffman, PHI
- Tyler Kinley, COL
- Yennier Cano, BAL
- Justin Slaten, BOS
- Nate Pearson, TOR
- John Brebbia, CHW
- Griffin Jax, MIN
- Beau Brieske, DET
- Chad Green, TOR
- John Schreiber, KC
- Bryan Hudson, MIL
- Andrew Kittredge, STL
- Daniel Hudson, LAD
- Hunter Harvey, WAS
- A.J. Puk, MIA
- Luis García, LAA
- Joe Jiménez, ATL
- Colin Holderman, PIT
- Jeremiah Estrada, SD
- Reed Garrett, NYM
- Tyson Miller, CHC
- Hunter Gaddis, CLE
- Luke Weaver, NYY
- Tyler Rogers, SF
- Fernando Cruz, CIN
- Ryan Thompson, ARI
Ranking Next Week’s Available Two-Steps
- Christian Scott, NYM — @ PIT (Mitch Keller) vs. COL (Dakota Hudson)
- Frankie Montas, CIN — vs. COL (Cal Quantrill) vs. MIA (Trevor Rogers)
- Colin Rea, MIL — vs. PIT (Martin Perez) vs. WAS (Jake Irvin)
- Mitchell Parker WAS — vs. STL (Miles Mikolas) @ MIL (Dallas Keuchel)
- Jose Quintana, NYM — vs. WAS (Jake Irvin) vs. COL (Cal Quantrill)
- Miles Mikolas STL — @ WAS (Mitchell Parker) vs. CHC (Shota Imanaga)
- Dean Kremer, BAL — vs. CHC (Shota Imanaga) vs. NYY (Carlos Rodon)
- Davis Daniel, LAA — vs. TEX (Jon Gray) vs. SEA (TBA)
- Trevor Rogers, MIA — @ HOU (Ronel Blanco) @ CIN (Frankie Montas)
- Cal Quantrill, COL — @ CIN (Frankie Montas) @ NYM (Jose Quintana)
- Kenta Maeda, DET — vs. CLE (Ben Lively) vs. LAD (Gavin Stone)
- Martín Pérez, PIT — @ MIL (Colin Rea) @ CHW (Chris Flexen)
- Chris Flexen, CHW — vs. MIN (TBD) vs. PIT (Martin Perez)
- Roansy Contreras, LAA — vs. TEX (Max Scherzer) vs. SEA (Logan Gilbert)
- Dakota Hudson, COL — @ CIN (Andrew Abbott) @ NYM (Christian Scott)
Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo of Parker Meadows: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY)
