What could Jeremy Swayman’s next contract look like with the Bruins?

The Boston Bruins have approximately $9.5 million in cap space following their July 1 signings of Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov, among others. Jeremy Swayman is a restricted free agent under team control. Swayman wants to be a Bruin. The team concurs.

All those facts result in the conclusion the Bruins will re-sign their No. 1 goalie and just about finalize their 2024-25 roster.

The question is at what term and price?

General manager Don Sweeney has repeatedly declared that locking up the 25-year-old is a priority. That has yet to produce an agreement. 

That’s because the variance in Swayman’s perceived value is as wide as the goalie’s ceiling is tall.

Consider the following data points:

• $5 million, Thatcher Demko’s average annual value on a five-year contract signed March 31, 2021, per CapFriendly.

• $6.253 million, Swayman’s average annual value on a four-year contract projected by Evolving Hockey.

• $7.5 million, Swayman’s AAV on an eight-year contract projected by an agent granted anonymity to discuss a player he does not represent.

• $7.74 million, Juuse Saros’ AAV on an eight-year contract signed July 1.

• $9.5 million, Andrei Vasilevskiy’s AAV on an eight-year contract signed July 29, 2019.

• $11 million, Swayman’s AAV on an eight-year contract projected by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn.

Let’s study the references.

The Demko comparable

Demko was 25, the same age as Swayman, when he signed. He was in the second season of his two-year, $2.1 million second contract. Like Swaywan is now, Demko was headed into restricted free agency when he signed.

By the end of 2020-21, Demko had a .911 career save percentage in 72 NHL games. He had four playoff appearances (.985 save percentage).

Swayman has a .919 save percentage in 132 regular-season games. He has a .922 save percentage in 20 playoff appearances. 

By those numbers, Swayman merits more than Demko’s $5 million AAV.

The Evolving Hockey projection

As for how much more Swayman deserves than Demko, one conclusion could be $6.253 million annually. This would place him above Jordan Binnington ($6 million) and Jacob Markstrom ($6 million) and below John Gibson ($6.4 million). 

Binnington and Markstrom were approaching unrestricted free agency when they signed. Gibson was reaching restricted status.

According to Evolving Hockey, there is a 33 percent probability of a four-year, $25.012 million contract. The next highest probability is at 19 percent: a six-year, $36.93 million deal.

The AAV could align with what Swayman could receive in arbitration. The deadline to file is 5 p.m. Friday. It would result in a one- or two-year award at the team’s choosing. 

The sides went through arbitration last year. It resulted in his one-year, $3.475 million award. Swayman did not enjoy the process. 

Arbitration is not the preferred avenue for either player or team. Both sides prefer term via standard negotiations.

But if Swayman feels strongly about his salary, arbitration could be a mechanism to arrive at an agreement. Even if Swayman files Friday, the sides could agree before a hearing.

The agent’s projection

An eight-year, $60 million contract would be more to Swayman’s liking. Swayman wants a long-term deal. It would be a significant commitment to a goalie who has always shared the net  — first with Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak, then with Linus Ullmark — and has never been a season-long No. 1.

“Committing to eight years is a bit scary and certainly a gamble,” the agent wrote in a text.

Swayman has passed every checkpoint with high marks, including his playoff scorcher. He has the skill and temperament to be an ace until he is 33, his age at the end of an eight-year agreement. 

“The technique is there,” new Bruin Joonas Korpisalo said of his future partner during a video conference Wednesday. “The game sense is there. Everything is there. It’s the whole package.”

The Saros comparable

Saros is 29. He has a .917 save percentage in 350 career games. He would have been unrestricted at the end of 2024-25. He’s been the Nashville Predators’ No. 1 goalie for the past four seasons after taking over from Pekka Rinne.

So it is not an apples-to-apples comparison. However, Lewis Gross, Swayman’s agent, can argue that his client’s prime performance is yet to come. Saros, on the other hand, is due to decline during his next contract. Saros will be 37 upon his deal’s conclusion.

“I could see him asking for it,” answered one GM, granted anonymity to discuss a player not under contract with his team, on whether Swayman could negotiate for more than Saros.

The Vasilevskiy comparable

The Tampa Bay Lightning ace had just turned 25 when he put pen to paper. He had a .919 save percentage in 208 appearances. Vasilevskiy had submitted three seasons of No. 1 performance after succeeding Ben Bishop as Tampa’s ace.

As such, Vasilevskiy’s $9.5 million AAV would be the upper limit of Swayman’s ask, perhaps even out of reach. However, the deal is five years old. The NHL salary cap was $81.5 million in 2020-21, the first season of Vasilevskiy’s eight-year blockbuster. It will be $88 million in 2024-25.

Via Dom Luszczyszyn

The $11 million ceiling

Swayman’s forecast is sunny according to Luszczyszyn’s model. The model projects Swayman to save 116.4 goals above expectation over an eight-year deal.

In comparison, Connor Hellebuyck ($8.5 million AAV) has saved 115.2 goals above expectation in the six years following his age-24 season. Saros has saved 73.4 goals above expectation in the four years after his age-24 season.

As for past performance, Swayman, Jake Oettinger and Stuart Skinner have saved 10-plus goals above expectation and made 100-plus appearances before their age-25 seasons. Others include Hellebuyck, Saros, Sergei Bobrovsky, Gibson, Braden Holtby, Matt Murray, Carey Price and Tuukka Rask.

“Basically expects Swayman to be one of the best goalies in the world over the next eight years,” Luszczyszyn wrote of his model.

Luszczyszyn offers one cautionary statistic. Only Gibson (68) has saved more goals above expectation before his age-25 season than Swayman (44.3). Gibson has saved 7.4 goals above expectation in the six subsequent years.

Conclusion

Swayman is one of the Bruins’ three foundational players along with David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy. The Bruins traded Ullmark to the Ottawa Senators mainly because of Swayman’s projected future and his pending payday.

The Bruins cannot afford to disappoint Swayman for a second straight offseason. 

(Photo: Sam Navarro / USA Today)