13.1 miles down, 13.1 miles to go.
I’ve never run a real marathon, but as far as keyboard athletics go, fantasy baseball season ticks that box nicely.
My recurring mid-summer wish is a normalization of July second-half drafts. In fact, I think second-chance drafts could take off in other fantasy sports as well. Draft day is the best singular day of the year in most situations, so why not add to the fun? In addition to creating more roster construction opportunities, we would also have a path to try out formats that are seldomly used in different sports.
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A 12-week Guillotine baseball league?
Sign me up!
There’s plenty of work to do with existing rosters, and if you weren’t already comfortable taking full stock of your roster before the midway point and making significant changes, it’s now safe to do so. (It has been for weeks, but sometimes you just want to see things play out a little longer before changing course.)
And now with the benefit of hindsight, some of our evaluations and decisions are stinging worse than ever.
Looking back at NFBC Drafts between March 15-29, here are a few interesting things ‘we’ thought in March.
- There were at least four players everyone wanted before Aaron Judge (his minimum pick No. 5 overall, his ADP was 13… one spot behind Trea Turner.).
- Judge had an abdomen injury that popped up just prior to that window, which scared some of us away from a player who led MLB in wRC+ (179) between 2021 and 2023 while hitting more homers than anybody else (138) and being one of two players with 300+ runs and 300+ RBI (Matt Olson). The spring injury news game can be cruel.
- Corbin Carroll was a lock in the first round, never dropping below 12th overall across 430 drafts of varying formats.
- Six pitchers finished ahead of Tyler Glasnow in ADP (38.76).
- Edwin Díaz and Josh Hader were the two best relievers in fantasy baseball. Strikeouts, great ratios, and job security.
- Blake Snell and Zach Eflin were reliably drafted two rounds earlier than Chris Sale.
Things change fast, even though the day-to-day reveal of a season peels off one sheet at a time.
I’m always interested in the Past Calendar Year leaderboards. This time of year, it’s a way to Frankenstein the second-half numbers from 2023 with the first-half results from 2024.
- Blake Snell is still 13th in ERA during that span (3.01) among pitchers with at least 100 IP.
- He also has the highest walk rate (5.48 BB/9) and is 91st/127 in WHIP (1.33).
- Ryan Pepiot is one of eight pitchers with a sub-1.00 WHIP (0.97) during that span.
- Cristopher Sánchez is 10th in ERA! (2.91)
- Jameson Taillon has nearly the same ERA (3.22) as Ranger Suárez (3.20).
- Aaron Judge has 50 homers, 118 RBI, and 104 runs scored despite playing in just 142 games. (His 197 wRC+ ranks first.)
- Gunnar Henderson is now third in MLB in homers (43) in the past calendar year.
- Shea Langeliers is hitting like a catcher-eligible Nolan Gorman.
- Brice Turang has been very similar to Corbin Carroll. Carroll has scored 32 more runs in this window, but they have similar strikeout and walk rates, Turang has a 19-point advantage in batting average, and they have nearly identical homer and stolen base totals.
- Francisco Lindor has 28 homers and 37 steals, with a .267/.339/.469 line and 115 runs scored along with 84 RBI. The only players with more homers and more steals are first rounders (Bobby Witt Jr., José Ramírez, Kyle Tucker, and Shohei Ohtani).
Looking for fallers in overall value, we might be asking questions about Ozzie Albies this winter, as he’s hit 19 homers and stolen 13 bases over his past 639 plate appearances (.278/.337/.456).
- Randy Arozarena is down to 18 homers, 23 SB, 77 R and 53 RBI (.206/.314/.353).
- Matt Chapman and Nolan Arenado have fallen into the sub-20 homer power range.
- Bo Bichette has nine homers and six steals with a .254/.302/.367 line in his past 533 plate appearances.
- (Reminder/Confession: I liked Bo Bichette a lot as a third-rounder this year.)
- Jeremy Peña has just seven homers and 15 steals, with a .279/.333/.376 line in his past 656 PAs.
- Brayan Bello has posted a 5.39 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 11.4% K-BB%.
- Marcus Stroman has tumbled to a 7.1% K-BB% — fifth-worst out of 127 pitchers with at least 100 IP.
- Luis Severino, another pitcher I really liked this draft season, has an 18.9% K rate covering 146.2 IP.
The broader point of this exercise is to provide a reminder that a lot more is going to change in the final three months. There are still a lot of opportunities to be right, and just as many chances to be wrong.
Listen to Rates & Barrels wherever you enjoy podcasts — including Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, the ad-free option within The Athletic app.
I decided to combine last week’s recap with this one, since there are only three episodes for the current week.
Aaron Civale heads to another “good” pitching organization
During this week’s livestream with Trevor May, we asked, “What changes could the Brewers have in mind for Civale?”
It’s always tempting to assume that a new team will have an adjustment or two in mind when they bring in a new pitcher, and while the Rays made a small change to his pitch mix last season after acquiring Civale at the trade deadline for Kyle Manzardo, the Brewers’ plans might be as simple as reverting back to the mix that Civale had success with during his time in Cleveland.
One other idea I offered was the possibility of scrapping the four-seam fastball entirely if his command of the pitch doesn’t return, since Civale’s cutter and sinker have been more effective, and since he’s got so many other offerings to mix and match.
Even if the changes are minimal, leaving a division that features the second- (Orioles), third- (Yankees), 13th- (Red Sox) and 16th-best (Blue Jays) lineups by wRC+ and moving into the NL Central where he’ll see the 17th- (Cards), 20th- (Cubs), 25th- (Reds) and 27th-ranked (Pirates) lineups will help.
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James Wood and promotion timing
In an ideal world, prospects would be promoted when they are ready to play in the big leagues, and that appears to be the outcome for Nationals top prospect James Wood, who debuted Monday and picked up a hit in his first career start. Recent rule changes and incentives have helped, but even within that framework, early-season debuts (Anthony Volpe in 2023, Wyatt Langford in 2024) and late-season debuts (Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson in 2022) are the norm, since the incentives are built around Rookie of the Year awards. A late promotion for Wood would have left his ROY status for 2025 intact (he could be demoted, and that is still a possibility), but giving him an opportunity now has a lot of potential benefits.
If the Nationals fancy themselves a long shot contender for the wild card right now, Wood is an upgrade over Eddie Rosario. If they’re working to increase interest in their club, calling up their prospect now gives them a half-season to build up hype and momentum around their young core. Moreover, and more importantly from a player development perspective, a half-season of experience for Wood might be the best possible way to prepare him for every-day duty in 2025, when the Nats can supplement the current roster with more talent via free agency and be in a better position for a postseason run. Beyond that, the decision might help the two sides come to an agreement down the road for a long-term extension.
As we’ve discussed on the show and with Keith Law on The Athletic Baseball Show in recent years, the gap between Triple-A and the majors is massive right now, and the unique shape of the strike zone with ABS at Triple-A (the top of the zone is lower) adds another layer of difficulty for players making the move into the big leagues. Wood is 6-foot-7, so we’ll likely ask a lot of the same questions that came up when Aaron Judge debuted in 2016. Bringing Wood up now starts the next step of his development immediately. A 21-year-old producing numbers that are 73 percent better than league average has little left to learn against a lower level of competition.
Here’s a look at the 240 pitches thrown at the top of the zone (and above it) against Wood at Triple-A this season.
The breakdown of outcomes on those pitches doesn’t look bad — an 11.7% whiff rate is very low — and I’m confident we’ll learn a lot about Wood relatively quickly in this regard since a much smaller percentage of the pitches from top-level pitching will miss and be relatively easy takes as balls.
The fantasy implications are simple. Wood has a high enough ceiling in multiple categories to spend aggressively (25-30% of a budget) in free-agent bidding leagues where he is still available. If he plays well, he will play nearly every day. If he struggles for a prolonged stretch (and many rookies do), a demotion isn’t out of the question, but you will be able to capably backfill the position as needed.
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Why I’m more optimistic than Eno about Heston Kjerstad
A 25-year-old with a bright big league future should destroy this crop of Triple-A pitching. Check.
Rest-of-season projections need to point to an above-average bat for a hitter without premium defensive value to crack a great lineup. Check
(.252/.312/.417, 25.3% K% from The BAT X.)
Kjerstad was drafted second overall in the shortened 2020 draft, meaning his college season was cut short by COVID and his 2021 season was lost due to myocarditis.
While 2024 is his age-25 season, Kjerstad has less experience than the typical player his age, and might not be a completely finished product.
In the tiniest of MLB samples stretched over two seasons, he’s already hit .250/.342/.484 with a 14.0% barrel rate (and a high-water Max EV from last season at 107.6). Even if Kjerstad possesses good raw power rather than elite raw power, he lifts the ball consistently and has shown an ability to pull it enough to tap into 25-homer pop, and potentially without the drag of a .230-.240 AVG in the long run.
From our conversation Monday, these are actually good comps that Eno Sarris dug up while trying to find lower Max EV players who get to their power consistently.
Yes, I’m guilty of underrating Kerry Carpenter, and no, I don’t think Kjerstad will swing and miss as often as Jarred Kelenic. The added risk in Kjerstad’s profile from a fantasy perspective comes from his lack of contributions in the stolen base category,
The Orioles’ need for pitching may help to resolve the depth chart logjam in the next four weeks, leaving Kjerstad with a clearer path to regular playing time in Baltimore, or as the centerpiece of a blockbuster trade.
Enjoy the Fourth of July weekend in the States — the show returns Monday!
(Top photo of James Wood: Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY)
