The Los Angeles Rams finished seventh in the NFL with 359.3 yards per game in 2023. The Atlanta Falcons finished 17th with 334.3 yards per game.
This is relevant to Bijan Robinson’s fantasy football value. The Falcons will be running the Rams’ offensive system this year after hiring head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson away from Los Angeles. So, if a rising tide lifts all boats, then Bijan Robinson’s numbers should go up from an impressive rookie season, right?
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Well, probably. Robinson set Atlanta’s franchise rookie record for yards from scrimmage with 1,463 last season, scoring eight touchdowns overall. He was one of only four rookies in NFL history to have more than 1,400 yards from scrimmage, more than 55 catches and four or more touchdowns.
Coming off his first professional offseason, Robinson should be even better in Year 2. There are a couple of details worth digging into, though. Robinson’s rookie yardage total came from 976 yards on the ground and 487 through the air, with an even split on the scoring — four rushing and four receiving touchdowns.
This is significant because former Falcons head coach and play caller Arthur Smith is one of the league’s foremost proponents of throwing the ball to running backs. Robinson caught 58 passes as a rookie.
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In the last three seasons, all Rams running backs combined have averaged 50 catches per year. Falcons running backs caught 88 passes in 2023, so it’s likely Robinson will lose value as a pass catcher this season.
Can he make it up by getting more than the 214 carries he got last year and increasing his rushing capacity? That depends on how much the new staff likes backup running back Tyler Allgeier. Rams coach Sean McVay, who tutored Zac Robinson, has a reputation for giving the bulk of carries to his top running back. But one of the first things Atlanta’s new coaching staff did upon their hiring was assure Allgeier he would still be heavily involved in the run game, according to a league source.
Allgeier set the franchise rookie rushing record in 2022 with 1,035 yards and had another 683 backing up Robinson last year, so he has shown the ability to make the most of his opportunities.
Robinson is The Athletic’s No. 3 fantasy running back in early 2024 projections behind the San Francisco 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey and Indianapolis Colts’ Jonathan Taylor, and he’s clearly worthy of being one of the top picks in any draft. However, it’s worth noting how his circumstances have changed since the end of last season.
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(Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
