And we’re here. It’s the final breakout fantasy football player piece, with tight ends this week. Oh, and the fantasy football draft season is right around the corner, meaning some sneaky value picks will be gone soon, as people learn more about what you already know. Tight end breakouts might be the toughest to predict, but if you can find a gem, especially late, you can do away with the frustrations of playing the waiver wire game each week. So let’s find those breakouts!
ROOKIES AND BROKE OUT ALREADY
- Brock Bowers, LV; Ben Sinnott, WSH; Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR; et al rookies — You know what’s coming if you’ve read the rest of this series. Rookies don’t “break out” for me, but these three in particular could have valuable fantasy seasons.
- Kyle Pitts, ATL — He’s a bounce-back, not a breakout — lest we forget his 1,026 yards as a rookie. Okay, Pitts could easily break out into the Top 3 with and hit the 12+ FPPG mark with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. That would be a significant breakout, for sure, but I also wanted to go a bit further down the list, and Pitts plus Cousins feels like easy money.
- David Njoku, CLE; Evan Engram, JAX — Njoku had his breakout (career-best 10.3 FPPG), and Engram posted the second double-digit FPPG season of his career.
THE OBVIOUS NAMES
Dalton Kincaid, BUF — Kincaid not only is the most popular breakout tight end pick, but he might be the No. 1 option for Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs gone. It’s Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel, and Kincaid is in line for a potential 120+ targets.
Trey McBride, ARI — McBride was TE4 overall, and TE6 in FPPG from Weeks 8-18. With 11.7 FPPG in that stretch, you could argue McBride can’t break out more, but he should be able to near that production over a full season with Marvin Harrison Jr. as Kyler Murray’s top target, but McBride still easily being the No. 2.
TOP 5 BREAKOUT TIGHT ENDS
Pat Freiermuth, PIT — Freiermuth has seen decent yardage and touchdowns, but not in the same season, and now is the time for both. I’m a supporter of rookie Roman Wilson, but more so because of Mike Tomlin’s fondness for him and the opportunity. Wilson has some limitations and is inexperienced, and with Diontae Johnson off to Carolina, Freiermuth is in line to be Russell Wilson’s No. 2 target. We know about Jimmy Graham with Wilson, but even Zach Miller had two seasons with 15.4 and 14.1 TmTGT% marks. Freiermuth has 12.1, 17.9 and 9.7 TmTGT% marks, respectively, in his three NFL seasons, playing just 12 games last year as part of the factor — so if you look at his TGT% (routes run targeted), you see a better picture of 22.5-20.0-17.2. Last year is still the down year, but Wilson is an upgrade over Kenny Pickett, and Freiermuth seeing 90+ targets with Wilson will have him able to put together the yards and touchdowns, finishing with a line in the 70-775-6 range, which would have been good for TE8 last year overall and in FPPG.
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Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN — Here we go again. Okonkwo was here last year, but that was before the DeAndre Hopkins addition, which killed much of any chance for Okonkwo’s breakout. However, Brian Callahan takes over as the head coach and is a terrific offensive mind. Additionally, even as someone who isn’t the biggest Will Levis fan, Levis presents an upgrade at quarterback, particularly in downfield aggressiveness. Okonkwo averaged 14.1 YPR as a rookie, and while that’s a high bar, his getting back to 12+ YPR with Levis and Callahan is in play, and if he sees 90+ targets, a 60-for-750 season is doable. With a few touchdowns, that puts Okonkwo in the fringe-TE1 discussion. The downside is that Callahan has a wideout trio like he did in Cincinnati, which could make the tight end position irrelevant for fantasy.
Tyler Conklin, NYJ — Talent at the position matters, yet even with varying talent, Aaron Rodgers has targeted his tight ends 17.6% of the time. That’s slightly under middle-of-the-pack, but the point was more about Rodgers not being afraid to utilize his tight ends, despite middling options, for many years, and that’s with some top-end talents at WR1 and WR2. The Jets have Garrett Wilson as their clear No. 1, and Mike Williams is a terrific No. 2 — as long as he’s healthy. After that, rookie Malachi Corley, Xavier Gipson, and others will challenge for the No. 3 role, but that could — and should — be Conklin’s for 2024. Even before the talk of the offseason chemistry with Rodgers, Conklin was a smart gamble with a respectable 1.31 YPRR with last year’s trash QB play, and a nice 4.8 YAC/REC the past three years. With 90 targets, Conklin would be more than a breakout, potentially pushing fringe TE1 value.
Jonnu Smith, MIA — For all of the hate Smith received for “taking away” opportunities from Kyle Pitts, he is an athletic tight end and a matchup problem for linebackers. Smith could be the tight end the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa have been searching for, and the opportunity is here to be the No. 3 option. Yes, Odell Beckham comes into town as well, but this isn’t the OBJ you used to know, or the one who blocked me on Twitter. Additionally, the Dolphins have depth at wide receiver beyond Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but no true threats — as of today (potential for the future). Smith had 1.55 YPRR last year, and even though that was with the Falcons, that mark was 11th best (min 50 targets), just 0.1 behind Tanner Hudson and 0.2 behind Evan Engram (ninth). Pitts was 1.43 for comparison, and while I’ll take Pitts 10 times out of 10, Smith could be the sneaky tight end breakout of 2024.
Jelani Woods, IND — Woods is a nightmare matchup for defenses, but he missed all of 2023 with hamstring issues. The Colts have tight end options, but no one has the ceiling of Woods, who posted 44-598-8 in his final college year after transferring to UVA. Woods had a line of 50-25-312-3 as a rookie, and while Anthony Richardson’s offense won’t attempt 600+ passes, a tally in the low 500s is likely. The biggest issue is that even with 525 pass attempts, Richardson has Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and now rookie Adonai Mitchell, meaning Woods needs to be the No. 3 option to have a fantasy-relevant season. If he gets 80+ targets, Woods will be an enormous breakout and high-end TE2. Even so, he’s likely to be touchdown-reliant as well.
(Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
