Even after a supposedly down offseason, Brewers continue to show Cubs how it’s done

MILWAUKEE — The Chicago Cubs want to have it all. Jed Hoyer wants to build a strong organization that regularly produces talent through its farm system while also competing in free agency and boasting a big payroll. Those types of organizations are rare, but the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees are the mold.

Perhaps the Cubs will never spend like them. But being a behemoth in the NL Central should not be out of reach. If built properly, the Cubs should be able to throw their financial weight around while still using a top-rated farm system to supplement their talent base. The 2024 season was supposed to be the beginning of a real contention cycle. Instead, 85 games into the season, the Cubs are seven games under .500 and have the third-worst record in the NL.

What’s all the more damning is looking at the team that’s leading the division.

Coming into the year it appeared as though the Milwaukee Brewers were headed for a major rebuild. They’d traded away Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes and lost their manager, Craig Counsell, to the archrival Cubs. David Stearns, who had already stepped down as team president and moved into an advisory role the previous winter, left to run baseball operations for the New York Mets. Starter Brandon Woodruff and dominant closer Devin Williams both started the season on the injured list and remain on the shelf with significant injuries.

These are normally not the types of setbacks a small-market team can overcome. But the Brewers are showing this is much more than a one-man show. They always seem to exceed expectations. Since 2018, the Brewers have made the playoffs in every full season outside of 2022. In those full seasons, they’ve exceeded PECOTA projections every season except 2022, outperforming the projection system by 16 total wins.

“Should probably redo the projections,” Ian Happ said. “Figure out that system.”

Series wins vs. the Cubs hit different#ThisIsMyCrew X @UWCreditUnion https://t.co/uBOQQz2PbO pic.twitter.com/BYJCKVEyQr

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) June 30, 2024

Projections are an imperfect science. But when it comes to the Brewers, it feels especially so. This is not a team with a long history of winning. From its one-year existence as the Seattle Pilots in 1969 through the 2017 season, the organization made the playoffs a total of four times. Since then, the Brewers have made the postseason in five of the last six seasons and are poised for a sixth this year as they entered Monday with a 6 1/2-game division lead after collecting their 50th win of the season Sunday.

“Good, fundamental baseball team,” Kyle Hendricks said about what stands out about Milwaukee. “They do all the right things. They put pressure on you. A lot of team speed. Put the ball in play, contact-oriented and they can slug, too. They do a lot of things that help you win baseball games. They just have a lot of good players in general. The key to it all, I think, is the pitching. They’ve just pitched really well the whole time I’ve been here and been watching them.”

This season the Brewers have done it more with offense. They are top 10 in runs scored and wRC+ and stand out in numerous other offensive categories. Christian Yelich is hitting like a star again, Joey Ortiz looks like a great return for Burnes and youngsters like William Contreras and Brice Turang look like complete players who will help this roster for years to come. Their bullpen is stout even without Williams, entering Monday fourth in reliever ERA (3.14). The starting pitching is down this season, but since 2018, the group is fourth in baseball with a 3.87 ERA.

New manager Pat Murphy deserves credit for keeping this team together and motivated despite so many offseason losses. Senior vice president and general manager Matt Arnold is proving to be a standout head of baseball operations. And it’s clear there are many facets of this front office that are doing cutting-edge work and making sure the Brewers stay one step ahead of the competition.

Toward the end of Theo Epstein’s days with the Cubs, he’d often look at his team and compare it to what the Brewers had talent-wise. He and Hoyer felt the Cubs were more talented on paper but weren’t getting the most out of their group. They looked at the Brewers manager — Counsell — and felt he was a likely difference-maker. It was part of the reason they moved on from Joe Maddon and selected David Ross. When Counsell became available, Hoyer pounced in, making what many saw as a clear upgrade.

But the Brewers continue to show their success is about more than just one person.

Pat Murphy has helped guide the Brewers to first place in his first year as manager. (Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA Today)

“They put together a pretty well-rounded group,” Counsell said. “There’s always something next coming. That supplements whatever doesn’t come back. They do a really good job of that.”

The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians often get a lot of love in the public arena for being small-market teams that consistently compete, no matter what talent they lose or if a great manager moves on. The Rays continued to thrive after Maddon left, and Kevin Cash often gets mentioned as one of the best in the game. Terry Francona retired, and the Guardians haven’t skipped a beat with Stephen Vogt in charge. Both Happ and Hendricks agreed that the Brewers deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as those two organizations.

“They’ve been a consistently good baseball team,” Happ said. “I don’t care about their payroll or the size of their market. They’re consistently good.”

This season, the Brewers have a luxury tax payroll pushing $150 million, according to Roster Resource. The Cubs are a tick over $233 million. Yet the Brewers entered Monday with an 11 1/2-game lead over the Cubs.

Hendricks believes there’s a culture that’s been built in Milwaukee that allows the Brewers to thrive despite consistent turnover.

“It kind of seems like every year with them they lose guys and they would just find guys to replace (them),” Hendricks said. “That speaks to what they have in the clubhouse, the culture. Whoever is brought in and added to the group, seems like they pick up what’s needed and are a really good part of the group. Just a really good team-oriented approach, a team-oriented feel towards winning over there.”

Hendricks says Counsell had a big hand in that and is starting that process with the Cubs, as well. It’s hard to describe these types of things, but Hendricks did his best to explain what Counsell is doing in Chicago.

“Kind of that identity of the team,” Hendricks said. “Toughness, grind and grit of what it takes going out there every single night. Going out and taking ballgames. You see that from the Brewers. They go out with aggressiveness. When everything comes together and we’re playing good, we go out there in that way with that mindset.”

Right now, the Cubs aren’t doing that enough. They aren’t making their own breaks. They’re making too many mistakes. They’re not coming up with the clutch hit or making the right pitch in the biggest moments. Some of it is personnel, of course. But Counsell is working hard to build a different culture that will allow this organization to thrive. The Brewers are proving it takes more than just a big payroll to win.

“Nothing is given to you in this game,” Hendricks said. “(Counsell) says that a lot. You have to go out and take it. That toughness, grit and team identity is something he’s really trying to establish.”

(Top photo of Jackson Chourio being splashed after a Brewers win over the Cubs: Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)