The contract
The Seattle Kraken sign center Chandler Stephenson to a seven-year deal worth $6.25 million AAV.
Ron Francis signing huge contracts, in this economy?
Talk about going against the grain. Before today, Francis had only ever signed a player to a seven-year term once in the last 10 years between his tenures in Carolina and Seattle — the Jaccob Slavin extension back in 2017. Now, in free agency, the Kraken GM has signed a pair of seven-year deals — one to Brandon Montour and one to Stephenson.
Advertisement
Stephenson goes from one of the best value deals in the league to a pretty pricey one that carries a ton of risk considering where his game trended this season. In all situations, his scoring rate ticked down to 2.21 points per 60 from the 2.50 range over the last two seasons. Stephenson’s game took a hit at five-on-five as well, with less than 46 percent of the expected goals share. The Vegas Golden Knights generated fewer expected and actual goals with Stephenson on the ice relative to his teammates and allowed more back. His two-way impact deflating may be due to some drawbacks in previous areas of strength — like his foot speed, which could be the leading contributor to his zone entry rate dropping. The Mark Stone Effect (before he was on LTIR) didn’t even help save Stephenson this past year, as the two had been a reliable two-way pair for Vegas to lean on.
It's difficult to overstate just how much Stephenson tanked the Knights' shot rates, despite playing primarily with Mark Stone (!). pic.twitter.com/WMgjsAioCL
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) July 1, 2024
Maybe it was just a down year for Stephenson that he can rebound from, but signing him to a big contract is an even bigger gamble with all that in mind. Outside of Vegas, he won’t have Stone at his right, who has been a mainstay on his wing since he joined the Golden Knights. That makes Seattle an even bigger test for Stephenson, who now has a ton to prove to live up to this contract into his 30s.
Evolving Hockey forecasted a $6.7 million cap hit for a seven-year term for Stephenson with a new deal. Seattle does get in below that. But is he actually worth that much over this term? Not quite. He’s projected to be worth half of his cap hit over the next seven years. There is no trade-off between term and price, which makes this a questionable signing.
It isn’t all bad, though.
Advertisement
The Kraken need help down the middle after moving Alex Wennberg at the deadline, and Stephenson should help accomplish that. With Matty Beniers, Stephenson and Yanni Gourde down the middle, Jared McCann should be maximized on the wing, where he has played his best hockey. So if Stephenson can get back to his 2022-23 form with better play in transition and more puck movement, he should be one of the contributors who helps Seattle find that balanced approach that works well for them. He’s only one year removed from that, so it’s not entirely unrealistic to think it can happen.
Contract grade: C
Fit grade: B-
(Photo: Charles LeClaire / USA Today)
