While the NBA sifts through free agency, the Rockets play waiting game

After a season in which the Houston Rockets revamped their team — adding coach Ime Udoka, Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to the equation — which resulted in a culture shift and 41 wins, their offseason goals are slightly different now.

Gone are the days (at least for now) when the brain trust, flush with spending power, would sit in an upstairs office at the Toyota Center, debating over free agents, potential fits and prices. It’s difficult to envision a fit for another rotational player on the free-agent market right now. As it stands, the Rockets have 15 players under contract, after reaching an agreement on a new two-year deal with Aaron Holiday, with at least 10 of them firmly cemented in Udoka’s rotation.

From the moment the final buzzer sounded in Houston’s final regular season game, the organization’s paramount objective has been improvement in their shooting department. But more importantly, there needed to be discussions about the right kind of addition, one that fit with what the franchise was currently building. Drafting Reed Sheppard and trading for A.J. Griffin — a pair of 20-year-old shooters — aligned more with the team structure than chasing another two-way veteran like Reggie Bullock, Gary Harris or even Gary Trent Jr., who team sources said had quietly expressed interest in teaming up with VanVleet again.

General manager Rafael Stone has prioritized youth and upside over the last three years and has found a healthy balance of veterans to provide leadership, structure and accountability. But preserving that was important, too. Houston, despite the substantial year-over-year improvement, needed to remain focused on the long-term planning, continuing to develop around a core of six former first-round picks aged 23 or younger — while keeping their flexibility open for a potential superstar.

Free agent guard Aaron Holiday plans to sign a two-year, $10 million deal to stay with the Houston Rockets, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium. Holiday played 78 games as a reserve guard for Rockets' turnaround season last year. pic.twitter.com/bsQ9psaeNl

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) July 1, 2024

There is a league-wide understanding of what constitutes a superstar, but Houston has only been closely monitoring two situations in recent weeks: Donovan Mitchell in Cleveland and Devin Booker in Phoenix. What has prevented the Rockets from aggressively pursuing either player is the reality that young talents aren’t readily available across the league. The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported recently that Mitchell and the Cavaliers are hopeful of signing a new extension, and the Suns’ ownership publicly shut down any rumors of breaking up their star core.

Other rumored names like Kevin Durant are on a different timeline than the Rockets, the interest in Mikal Bridges had dissipated since the February trade deadline and the asking price for Utah’s Lauri Markkanen was seen as exorbitant — as well as doubts that existed about him being the best player on a contender.

Internally, it’s clear Houston’s best opportunity for improvement is someone from the “core six” taking another step forward in their development, with Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green leading the charge — and Amen Thompson also strongly considered as a breakout candidate. Last season, Şengün established himself as a premier offensive weapon, flirting with all-star and most improved honors, and Green, who had a rough first half of the season, looked vastly different to close the campaign. Thompson’s potential and his versatility displayed down the stretch of last season is also exciting.

At this stage, it’s unlikely either Şengün or Green receive max rookie extensions — both are eligible for a five-year deal worth up to $224.2 million, per The Athletic’s salary cap expert Danny LeRoux. Houston has had conversations with both camps concerning an extension and will continue dialogue during the offseason, but the chances of either player inking an agreement in the realm of fellow 2021 draftees Cade Cunningham ($236 million) or Scottie Barnes (potentially up to $270 million) are slim. It’s more likely the Rockets revisit this next year, unless there is an agreement that benefits both sides.

Again, the Rockets are focused on internal improvement and flexibility. Steven Adams, who arrived via trade last season, is expected to be a contributor next season, as is Tari Eason, who appeared in only 22 games because of a leg injury. Both could be seen as new additions, especially given Eason’s lengthy absence. Udoka and his staff are committed to improving the overall offensive efficiency of the group, focusing on maximizing the output of their three engines — Şengün, VanVleet and Green.

To achieve this, however, tweaks must be made. For example, the period when Şengün missed the final 18 games of the season with an ankle sprain saw the Rockets shift to small ball and go 12-6. The team was pleased with the increased pace of play, coupled with the spacing that yielded the best month of Green’s career. Given the addition of Adams and Houston’s need for rim protection, it’s unclear how much they’ll be able to revert to small ball within games. The Rockets need to identify the optimal ball distribution between their engines, as well as improve their floor spacing. There’s also the inclusion of Sheppard, who is unlike any player the Rockets have on their roster. His shooting is seen as an option the coaching staff can utilize, and there is excitement over his impact.

From a flexibility standpoint, a new wrinkle in the CBA allows a non-tax team like the Rockets to hold onto their full non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.9 million) and utilize it as a trade exception. For example, if a team wanted to trade a player making $10 million and Houston didn’t want to send back any salary, it could simply absorb the player into said exception. In a free-agency class that is considered less robust than others — and getting weaker by the hour — Houston would prefer to have such a tool that could be used down the line, especially if it can extract additional assets in the process.

In a fast-paced NBA, with player movement afoot, with teams often finding themselves stuck championship chasing or worse, unable to climb out of mediocrity, the Rockets are comfortable being patient — at least in Phase 2. They will play the waiting game, either for one of their own to propel themselves into stardom or pounce on an opportunity that presents itself.

(Photo of Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green: Tim Warner/Getty Images)