July 1 and a day for new beginnings. Kylian Mbappe formally joins Real Madrid this morning after the expiry of his Paris Saint-Germain contract last night, rubberstamping one of European football’s most anticipated transfers. A bumper five-year deal at the Bernabeu starts here and now.
Others are also able to attach significance to the first of a new month, such as Tosin Adarabioyo, who becomes a Chelsea player following the conclusion of his deal at Fulham yesterday, and Lloyd Kelly, the defender swapping Bournemouth for Newcastle United.
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All three players — Mbappe, Tosin and Kelly — purposely chose to become free agents this summer after rejecting contract offers from their former employers. Time will eventually judge the merits of their career choices, but each already has a strong case for vindication — bigger clubs, better salaries and improved prospects of silverware.
It also points towards an emerging pattern. Players in their mid-twenties are confident enough to back themselves as free agents, no longer yearning for the security of long-term deals. They are prepared to run down a deal and go it alone, no matter the risks.
Mbappe, in truth, is different to most. No loss of form or serious injury was ever going to dissuade his long-standing suitors in Madrid. For Tosin and Kelly, defenders who have bobbed between the Championship and Premier League in their young careers, their choices were bold.
“We’re seeing players who are willing to run down contracts and get another club,” says one experienced agent, who, like everyone spoken to for this article, asked to remain anonymous to protect working relations.
“That might not have been the case 10 years ago. It’ll always be a gamble and it won’t be for everyone, but if you’ve been on good money since you were 18, 19 or 20, the chances are you’re more willing to take it.”
Free transfers are nothing new. Some of the biggest names football has known have been there and already done it. Lionel Messi, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Robert Lewandowski, Andrea Pirlo and Paul Pogba all swapped one elite club for another without a transfer fee changing hands.
Mbappe becomes the latest stellar name to cash in as a free agent, but it is the willingness of less illustrious, younger players, like Tosin and Kelly, to chance their arm that points to an altering landscape in the Premier League.
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Tosin had spent four years with Fulham, establishing himself as a capable Premier League defender. The chance to remain at Craven Cottage was there, but the 26-year-old rejected the offer to become one of Fulham’s highest-paid players and instead saw out his contract. Chelsea then came calling with a more lucrative four-year deal.
Kelly’s position was similar. The 25-year-old had the opportunity to stay with Bournemouth but knew that an upward step would be there as a free agent. A five-year deal with Newcastle presents greater opportunities at a club intent on challenging the Premier League’s elite.
It is safe to assume both Tosin and Kelly have benefitted financially, too. An inflated signing-on fee is standard for a free agent and a club spared a transfer fee will typically divert some of the savings towards improving the player’s wages.
Last summer delivered other examples in the Premier League. As well as the players made free agents by clubs no longer finding a need for them, some chanced their arm.
Like the then 26-year-old Youri Tielemans, who walked away from Leicester City’s best efforts at retention to join Aston Villa. Or Jefferson Lerma, 28 at the time, another to leave Bournemouth on a free transfer when preferring Crystal Palace. Adama Traore, then 27, was also on the move as a free agent, leaving Wolverhampton Wanderers to join Fulham.
That trio would each have commanded sizeable transfer fees under contract. Together they had cost their previous clubs in the region of £100million, only to leave for nothing. Chelsea and Newcastle are the latest beneficiaries, as are Tosin and Kelly. One Premier League sporting director, speaking to The Athletic, doubts Tosin would ever have got a move to Stamford Bridge if Chelsea had needed to meet a market value north of £20m.
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“It comes down to the risk-reward scenario,” says another agent who represents Premier League players. “If you look at players like Tosin and Kelly, they’ve doubtless been on healthy wages for the time they’ve been at their previous clubs. They’d be relatively financially secure already so were willing to take the risk of running down their contract.
“Most Premier League players who run their contracts down are doing so because they or their agent stands to gain financially. You don’t need to be a mathematician to figure out that if a club is going to pay £20million for you but you sit out your contract and move on a free, then you’re going to get a big chunk of that.”
The landscape differs below the Premier League, where free transfers are commonplace in a world where contracts tend to be shorter. The 2022 summer transfer window saw 65 players join Championship clubs on free transfers, with the majority no longer wanted by their previous employers.
Choosing the same path as Tosin and Kelly, turning down contracts to find better elsewhere, carries far greater risk without financial security. Taking out career-ending insurance, a policy that can pay out up to three years of a player’s salary upon an enforced retirement, is not uncommon.
“I would always worry about a player I represented running down his contract,” says one agent. “Pick up an injury and you’re left high and dry. It’s slightly different if you’re a superstar because clubs will be willing to take a chance.
“But if you’re an average player, running your contract down is a dangerous game. If you get injured in the last few months of your contract and it’s a bad one, then there isn’t going to be a queue of people at your door.”
The free agent market was effectively shaped by events almost 30 years ago. That was when Jean-Marc Bosman, a Belgian footballer, took legal action against his club Liege, the Belgian FA and UEFA when he was unable to join French club Dunkerque at the end of his contract.
A fee was still needed to sign Bosman after Liege refused to release the player, but successful legal action at the European Court of Justice transformed the transfer market. Players at the end of contracts could now move as free agents and even agree moves in the final six months of their existing deal.
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Clubs were forced to cede power and, as Tosin, Kelly, Tielemans, Lerma and Traore have shown, players are able to take control. Enter the final 12 months of a deal, perhaps even 18, and a club can become powerless to stop a player moving on.
Long-term deals bring protection for clubs, but the more sand that falls through the hourglass, the greater the vulnerability. The two-year deal signed by Mbappe at PSG in 2022, for example, eventually proved wholly insufficient.
There are big names now officially in the final years of contracts. Liverpool trio Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold all see their current deals expire next summer, as do Manchester City midfielder Kevin De Bruyne and Chelsea’s Conor Gallagher.
Perhaps more in the mould of Tosin and Kelly, though, is Brentford centre-forward Ivan Toney, a player who could run down his contract in favour of securing a bigger club. Brentford, who have so far held firm with their valuations of Toney, must decide whether to sell this summer if a new contract cannot be agreed. A January move, the last chance to sell, would be considered unlikely.
“A club loses power with 18 months of the contract to go,” says the agent. “With 12 months to go, they certainly have.
“You might find some clubs really leaning on a player at that stage, perhaps saying they won’t play. That can make a difference. The clock is ticking the whole time and when it gets to the last 18 months, buying clubs know they can lower their offers.
“The players have the power now, but it’s the good players who can run their contracts down with confidence. The ones who aren’t that great are the ones who can misread the gamble and by the end of their contract, they’re not in demand. But I’m sure you’ll see it happen more often.”
(Top photo: Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images)