Bullpen report: Ben Joyce adding to his repertoire, Jhoan Durán velocity concerns and more

A 10-game sticky substance suspension for Edwin Díaz headlines another tumultuous week across the high-leverage landscape. This hurts fantasy managers and his teammates since the team cannot replace him on the active roster. The good news is that he can be activated on July 6. Plan on the Mets deploying a match-up-based approach during save situations.

After not appearing in a save chance last Saturday, David Bednar was placed on the injured list with an oblique injury backdated to June 20. Although the fantasy community anticipates Aroldis Chapman will be the main beneficiary of this move, manager Derek Shelton intimated that saves might be determined by hitter-handedness in the late innings. Stay tuned.

There have been a few tweaks in the leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are the high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:

• Mostly Linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it’s usually a predictable leverage pathway. 
• Primary Save Share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in match-up-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season. 
• Shared Saves: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness, rest, or recent usage patterns that keep them fresh. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. Some teams also prefer a match-up-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, causing fluid save opportunities. 

AL Notes of Interest

• Baltimore Orioles: It will be interesting to see how aggressive the O’s are ahead of the trade deadline. Will they make a move for one of the closers on the market? 
• Boston Red Sox: A potential logjam awaits the Red Sox in their bullpen. Kenley Jansen has stated he prefers remaining with the team, but Liam Hendriks just threw his first bullpen session with eyes on a return near the trade deadline (July 30). 
• Chicago White Sox: Through 12 games in June, John Brebbia has allowed two earned runs with 17 strikeouts against one walk and a 0.75 WHIP, enhancing his trade stock. 
• Cleveland Guardians: The bullpen ranks first among all major league teams in K-BB percentage and WHIP, and second in Win Probability Added. 
• Detroit Tigers: Through his first 14 appearances, Jason Foley converted all nine save chances. Since May, he’s pitched in 17 games and secured four of six save chances, including his only two in June, but it’s affected his fantasy presence. 
• Houston Astros: Fueled by a recent hot streak, the Astros may not be selling at the deadline. If they are adding, getting veteran set-up relievers will be a focus since the team’s high-leverage triumvirate has already logged 105 appearances through its first 80 contests. 
• Kansas City Royals: Do not be surprised if they add a veteran reliever with closer experience, especially one who works with upper 90s velocity. 
• Los Angeles Angels: Carlos Estévez has retired 24 of 25 batters in June with 10 strikeouts versus zero walks, while converting all seven save opportunities. 
• Minnesota Twins: Brock Stewart is making progress in his rehab work. He could soon head out on a rehab assignment if he completes two more bullpen sessions. 
• New York Yankees: After a rough patch of games, the team needs more depth in its bullpen. Scott Effross has reached Triple-A, but he’ll need time before he’s ready to return. 
• Oakland Athletics: Despite rumors about Mason Miller being moved, it’s much more likely that Lucas Erceg will get traded. 
• Seattle Mariners: The good news is that Gregory Santos may be nearing a rehab assignment. This could benefit Andrés Muñoz since the team needs to manage his workload better as he has been dealing with lingering back soreness. 
• Tampa Bay Rays: The biggest question will be how the Rays handle the trade deadline. Will they buy, sell, or hold? 
• Texas Rangers: In his first 14 outings, Kirby Yates recorded three wins and seven saves. However, over his past 14 games, he’s only secured four saves, with his last opportunity coming on June 19. 
• Toronto Blue Jays: There has not been any follow-up about Jordan Romano temporarily shutting down his throwing regimen while on the injured list. Yimi García could return soon, depending on his next bullpen session. 

NL Notes of Interest

• Arizona Diamondbacks: One cannot chase wins, but Kevin Ginkel has recorded four in his 10 outings in June. 
• Atlanta Braves: Across nine appearances in June, Joe Jiménez has posted a 9:2 K:BB with a 0.78 WHIP, while recording a save and five holds. 
• Chicago Cubs: Which reliever will emerge from this bullpen? Keegan Thompson? Porter Hodge? Ben Brown, when healthy? Will it be too late? 
• Cincinnati Reds: Over the past 365 days, Fernando Cruz leads all relievers with 114 strikeouts. Josh Hader (100)  is the only other reliever to hit triple digits in this sample. 
• Colorado Rockies: This bullpen ranks last in K-BB percentage and WHIP. Find saves elsewhere right now. 
• Los Angeles Dodgers: Alex Vesia has allowed one earned run over 10 outings in June with 15 strikeouts versus one walk, two saves, and four holds. 
• Miami Marlins: It will be intriguing to see how the team handles save situations following a Tanner Scott trade. Will they turn to A.J. Puk or use a match-up-based approach with Calvin Faucher and Andrew Nardi? 
• Milwaukee Brewers: Could Devin Williams return after the All-Star break? 
• New York Mets: The team lost its closer to suspension, and Drew Smith landed on the 15-day injured list with an elbow sprain. 
• Philadelphia Phillies: With six wins in its past 11 games (as of June 26), the last Phillies save was recorded by Seranthony Domínguez on June 14. 
• Pittsburgh Pirates: Since David Bednar landed on the injured list, there has not been a save opportunity. However, Aroldis Chapman has been scoreless in six of his past seven, with nine strikeouts versus three walks. 
• San Diego Padres: With Robert Suarez and Jeremiah Estrada pitching well in high-leverage situations, which reliever will emerge as the third member of the triumvirate? Or will the team add that reliever via trade? 
• St. Louis Cardinals: Can the team manage the workloads of its top three relievers? Keep tabs on Ryan Fernandez; he could be a sneaky play in SOLDS formats approaching the All-Star break. 
• Washington Nationals: Another team facing tough decisions ahead of the trade deadline. Will the Nationals buy, sell, or hold? 

Past Statistical Year Leaders 

(Past 365 days through June 25, 2024)

Expanding the statistical samples can yield interesting results. With most teams reaching the season’s midpoint this week, revisiting the past statistical year’s leaders in key reliever categories may provide insight into the rest of the season.

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Reliever on the Rise

Ben Joyce, LAA — After appearing in numerous posts on “X” featuring his velocity in college, Joyce has gone through a learning curve facing major league hitters. He’s been scoreless over his past five appearances, spanning 7.1 innings, since introducing a “splinker.” It creates a different plane against batters and produces a high ground ball rate. This chart illustrates how he’s adjusted his pitch mix since June 14:

Statcast labels the pitch as a sinker. He owns a .087 batting average against his past five appearances, but has still issued too many walks. This will be the last hurdle in his development. However, his new pitch helped him produce his first outings on consecutive days for the Angels.

His development over the next three weeks will be critical since his team projects as a seller in the current trade market. Carlos Estévez, Luis García, and Matt Moore will be free agents at the end of the season, making them likely trade candidates. Once the team’s current high-leverage triumvirate departs, relievers like Joyce and teammate Hans Crouse will be thrust into save situations. Here’s hoping the splinker and his four-seam fastball can help Joyce sow the seeds for success and potential saves in the second half.

Closer Concern

Jhoan Durán, MIN — Inspired by Aaron Gleeman’s terrific column detailing Duran’s decreased velocity this season, I decided to further his research. Splitting the search engine at even mph coordinates will result in an overlap of 27 pitches, but the results illustrate the effect of his recent struggles while working with reduced velocity on his splinker and curve. 

Using 101 mph as the dividing point for his four-seam fastball, 97 mph with his splinker, and 86 mph for his curve, here are Duran’s splits by velocity:

One notes the spike in hard hit percentage by his curveball working with reduced velocity. He remains one of the most trusted relievers in his team’s leverage ladder, but he has appeared in the eighth inning in his past two games. This may be a case of his manager letting him work through his mechanics, but it’s still something fantasy managers must monitor, along with his velocities, moving forward.

Save Stashes

• Justin Slaten; Liam Hendriks (BOS)
• Jordan Leasure (CHW)
• Calvin Faucher/Andrew Nardi (MIA)
• Ben Joyce (LAA)
• Porter Hodge (CHC)

Ancillary Save Options

• Ryne Stanek (SEA)
• Jeff Hoffman (PHI)
• Ryan Pressly (HOU)
• Griffin Jax (MIIN)
• Nate Pearson (TOR)
• Joe Jiménez (ATL)

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Ratio Relievers 

*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios

• Matt Strahm (PHI)
• Bryan Hudson (MIL)
• Dedniel Núñez (NYM)
• Zack Kelly (BOS)
• Justin Slaten (BOS)

Trade Deadline Candidates

• Tanner Scott (MIA)
• Carlos Estévez; Matt Moore; Luis García (LAA)
• Michael Kopech; John Brebbia (CHW)
• Yimi García; Trevor Richards (TOR)
• Jalen Beeks (COL)

High Leverage Ladders

Tiered Rankings for Saves and SOLDS

Statistical Credits (through June 11): Fangraphs.com; Baseball-Reference.com; BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net

For daily coverage of bullpens, check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey

(Top photo of Ben Joyce: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)