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You know it’s a slow NFL period when you find yourself watching a mediocre NBA Draft. But we’re all back to the NFL, thankfully. Today’s update:
- 🎟 Sunday Ticket lawsuit
- 🗺 NFC North preview
NFL Sunday Ticket Lawsuit: What happened.
Could an upcoming court battle lower the cost of your NFL Sunday Ticket? Maybe, but we have a long way to go.
It took nine years before Sunday Ticket subscribers saw their day in court. Yesterday, jury deliberations began for the class action lawsuit seeking $7 billion in damages. Here’s what you should know:
The lawsuit accuses the NFL and its network partners (like CBS and Fox) of violating antitrust rules in order to sell Sunday Ticket at an inflated price.
Evidence showed that Fox and CBS wanted the league to charge premium prices for Sunday Ticket (to minimize the impact on broadcast networks), and the league rejected ESPN’s consumer-friendly proposal to lower the price — currently $350 on YouTube TV — to $70 per season. So yes, there’s an argument here.
You may be part of the massive class-action group. More than 2.4 million residential subscribers and 48,000 businesses that bought the package from June 17, 2011, to Feb. 7, 2023, are included unless they explicitly opted out. If they win, the NFL could owe $21 billion in damages, since federal antitrust law allows for triple the damages sustained.
This case comes over 60 years after the NFL lost a similar antitrust lawsuit when then-commissioner Pete Rozelle convinced teams to pool their broadcast rights and sign league-wide contracts with national networks. Months later, Rozelle lobbied Congress into allowing leagues to pool rights.
The NFL’s side of the current suit:
The league argues that Sunday Ticket — which nets each team approximately $62.5 million per year — falls under the antitrust exemption from the act pushed by Rozelle. But the plaintiffs claim the exception only covers over-the-air broadcasts, not pay TV (i.e. DirecTV).
Could the league lose? Yes. But the NFL has refused to settle, likely for two reasons: (1) They think they can win and (2) They need to win. Losing would hamper the league’s right to cut exclusive deals on behalf of all 32 teams, which has been one reason its annual media rights are worth more than $10 billion a year.
The fan’s side of the current suit:
What about us? After a year where 93 of the 100 most-watched programs on television were NFL games, according to Nielsen, we’ll all still be watching, regardless of this lawsuit. Still, this could change how we watch.
If the NFL loses, then YouTube’s pricey Sunday Ticket — and the league’s grip over broadcast rights — could eventually change. But first: appeals! More case details here.
2024 NFL Team previews: NFC North
After dominating the division for a decade, the Packers changed things up by shipping out Aaron Rodgers post-cave retreat. I now see a division that’s young and hungry, with massive potential. And much less ayahuasca.
Yes, today we’re covering the NFC North.
Lions Preview (12-5 in 2023)
Biggest question: Can they stop the pass?
They gave up just 91.1 rushing yards per game (second-best), but allowing 257 passing yards per game (second-most) won’t cut it. To address this, Detroit revamped its CB room, adding Carlton Davis III and Amik Robertson while drafting Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. in the first two rounds. Minicamp reports are promising.
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Position to watch: Head coach.
“I want the whole enchilada,” said Dan Campbell when asked what he wants out of the season. It’s another reason why he’s my favorite coach in the league, and why I’ve watched this “best Dan Campbell moments” montage more than once.
Fantasy sleeper: WR Jameson Williams.
Last year, Detroit ranked third in passing yards. Primary deep threat Josh Reynolds is now in Denver, so Williams — who is winning over the middle and downfield during minicamp — is the WR2. Could he live up to the potential the Lions saw when drafting him No. 12 in 2021? He’s Jake Ciely’s No. 1 Breakout Wideout.
Better than in 2023? Yes.
They upgraded their last remaining weakness, and if those corners pan out, I think this team’s Super Bowl aspirations should come true. If my Bengals can’t win the Lombardi, I hope we see Campbell holding it.
Latest read: Thoughts on all 45 of Detroit’s offensive players.
Packers Preview (9-8 in 2023)
Biggest question: Was Jordan Love’s second half a fluke?
No. The Packers nailed a QB succession again. In his first season as a starter, the current 25-year-old had more yards, a higher completion percentage and a higher TD-to-INT ratio than the first starting seasons of former Packer greats Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers. From Week 11 on, Love led the league in QB rating and passing yards. A hefty extension could arrive soon.
Position to watch: Safety.
While their run defense left something to be desired (Green Bay allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game), safety was the obvious focus this offseason. They added four new safeties, giving former Giant Xavier McKinney a four-year deal and drafting three more, including second-rounder Javon Bullard.
Fantasy sleeper: WR Dontayvion Wicks.
Two highly predictive stats sold me on his upcoming breakout: Last season, his 2.04 yards per route run were behind only Puka Nacua and Tank Dell among fellow rookies, while his first downs per route run tied Davante Adams for 18th among all players, per TruMedia. For 2024, fantasy GMs have been picking him about 60th among WRs.
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Better than in 2023?
Here I am, rewriting this paragraph for a sixth time, still uncertain if Green Bay’s 6-2 regular season finish was legit. The NFL’s youngest team lost to the 6-11 Giants and barely beat the 1-15 Panthers before impressing in the playoffs. Well, if The Athletic’s Vic Tafur is taking over 9.5 wins, that’s good enough for me.
Latest read: Packers name Ed Policy as franchise’s next president.
Vikings Preview (7-10 in 2023)
Biggest question: How long before J.J. McCarthy starts?
I don’t expect Sam Darnold to have a career resurgence, despite how sharp he looked in minicamp. His career passer rating (78.3) ranks 80th since he was drafted in 2018. And when you have the No. 10 pick waiting in the wings, the temptation can be unbearable.
Position to watch: Running back.
Last year’s Alexander Mattison experiment ended with 2022 fifth-round pick Ty Chandler taking over. Then they plucked Aaron Jones from the rival Packers. Per Alec Lewis’ notes, the 29-year-old looks “motivated and hungry to stick it to his former team.” In his final five games last year, he dominated, with 116.8 rushing yards per game.
Fantasy sleeper: TE T.J. Hockenson.
I know social media docs believe he could miss half of the season. But hear me out. Despite missing two and a half games last year, he finished fourth among fantasy TEs. Even half a season of Hockenson (plus a mediocre backup) is better than Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson, who is currently being drafted earlier. Until Hock’s back, grab an upside backup like New England’s Hunter Henry.
Better than in 2023?
No. The Vikings (+750 to win the division, per BetMGM) aren’t expected to be a threat, but if Darnold or McCarthy can fill the Kirk Cousins-sized void, they could surprise. Still, this team has dropped a tier.
Latest read: 10 remaining free-agent options for the Vikings.
Bears Preview (7-10 in 2023)
Biggest question: Is Caleb Williams the one?
The most important rookie in Bears history joins a team ready-made for a QB, with league-best WR trio Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze, pass-catching RB D’Andre Swift and TE Cole Kmet. Is the combination enough to give the Bears their first 4,000-yard passer?
Position to watch: Pass rusher.
In the Bears’ first eight games of 2023, they had just 10 sacks 🤢. After acquiring DE Montez Sweat, they had 20 sacks in nine games, and their defense finished as one of the top units. But their 2.2 sacks per game with Sweat still would have ranked No. 27 across the season. As Eberflus has admitted, they could use another pass rusher.
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Fantasy sleeper: WR Rome Odunze.
Typically being drafted after 40 or so other fantasy WRs, Odunze is a legitimate deep-threat in an offense expected to push the ball down the field. And if Keenan Allen misses time (the 32-year-old has missed 11 games in the last two years), Odunze’s early rapport with Williams could pay dividends. He’s already targeting Puka Nacua’s record.
Better than in 2023?
Duh. They weren’t as bad as their record suggests, starting 1-5 last season before finishing 6-5. But adding a generational prospect gives the Bears upside. The league’s easiest strength of schedule throughout the first 10 weeks doesn’t hurt, either.
Latest read: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen among next Bears in line for new contracts.
Jacob’s Picks
📕 Curious how Brandon Aiyuk’s contract negotiations play out? Randy Mueller breaks down the talks between the WR and the 49ers. (The Athletic)
📺 A deep dive on the scheme of Ben Johnson, the mastermind behind Detroit’s dominant offense, by former NFL QB Josh McCown. (YouTube)
🎙 QB situations, ranked. All 16 AFC quarterback situations graded by play-callers, offensive lines, pass catchers and running back support. (The Athletic Football Show)
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