Reed Sheppard or Donovan Clingan? Who should Rockets target with the No. 3 pick?

In a little less than 24 hours, the Houston Rockets will finally be on the clock.

The 2024 NBA Draft is sure to have its fair share of surprises, and the Rockets play a part in that.

The direction the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards take at the top of the draft is still unknown, which could impact what Houston does with the No. 3 pick.

After a season in which the franchise won 41 games, saw improvement across the board and came within striking distance of making the Play-In Tournament, they are settled in Phase 2. How they progress from here comes down to critical decision-making, the first of which comes on draft night.

Should the Rockets take Reed Sheppard, the sharpshooter from Kentucky who has already captured the hearts of the fan base? Do they go with Donovan Clingan, the most dominant defender in college basketball who has a questionable fit on a stacked roster? Or should they trade back, collect additional assets and wait?

To answer these questions and more, The Athletic’s Kelly Iko talks to resident draft guru, Sam Vecenie.

Kelly Iko: At this point in Houston’s rebuild, are you still going for the best player available (keeping the No. 3 pick) or does there have to be an element of team fit with coach Ime Udoka? Is there any worry of positional logjam?

Sam Vecenie: Team fit is an essential part of the equation now with the young talent the Rockets have. Particularly, Houston can’t draft another non-shooter. With Amen Thompson and Alperen Şengün in the fold as legitimate building blocks, you can’t throw another non-shooter in that mix. I’d love the Rockets to find a great shooter that they can count on reliably to space the court for their many athletic wings and guards, in addition to Şengün’s post/mid-post game.

This draft isn’t one where teams should be overemphasizing a big board rank in a vacuum over team fit. Everyone’s big board on the team side reflects some importance on how a prospect will fit with the team that they have, which is why every team’s board is different in large respect. Having said that, because the talent across the board in this class is so flat, how a player fits developmentally and in terms of the roster around him, in my opinion, will play a critical role in how that player’s game develops over the next five years. Because there is no overwhelming talent immediately making itself evident in this class, the All-Stars that will come from this class — and there will be All-Stars — will likely come from a combination of the players growing and the teams putting them in position to best fulfill their potential.

Iko: You have Reed Sheppard at No. 2 on your big board. Do you think Sheppard is a good fit with Houston if they take him at No. 3?

Vecenie: I love the Sheppard fit and think it’s an outstanding idea for the Rockets to go get an incredible connector player like him who fills needs in multiple respects, both positionally and in terms of skill set.

Everyone knows Sheppard is an elite 3-point shooter. He made 52.1 percent of his 3s, but it goes beyond that. He made 50 percent of his 3s from beyond 27 feet. He made 51.4 percent both off of the catch and off of the dribble. He’s an all-situations shooter who is among the best prospects I’ve ever evaluated at that specific skill.

But I also love his other skills. His feel for the game is strong. His basketball IQ showcases itself every time he’s out there, and he’s ahead of the curve when it comes to making reads. He’s an unbelievable transition passer. He’s a sharp half-court passer who makes extra reads with ease and can also drive and kick. He showcases real anticipation in help defensive situations and has a penchant for scrambling and defensive playmaking. His production and efficiency are historically strong for a first-year player.

I love the way he fits with this core. If the Rockets have questions about Thompson potentially shifting upward to the point guard position after playing more on the wing and in the frontcourt even at times this year, having someone like Sheppard next to him as a dynamic shooter who can also handle the ball would be awesome. He and Thompson in transition would have the potential to be one of the most dynamic duos in the game during their prime. Can you imagine Thompson using his speed to push the tempo, then having Sheppard as a trailer option, or having Sheppard spraying out to the wings and corners. That would make him even more dynamic.

Then in ball-screens and dribble handoffs, Sheppard would have a chance to combine well with Şengün in those settings due to his gravity and ability to fire quickly. Miami has found success off of sets like this with Duncan Robinson and Bam Adebayo over the years, and Houston could take directly from their playbook to find open 3s for Sheppard.

Defensively, Sheppard’s lack of size would be made up for by one of the biggest wing and backcourt core groups in the league, with Thompson, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., and Cam Whitmore all being in some respect long, dynamic, powerful or quick-twitch athletes that can cover ground quickly (even if Whitmore is still coming along on that end himself). Their presence and ability to scramble a bit might even allow Sheppard to take fuller advantage of his penchant for creating steals and blocks.

I love the idea of this fit, and it’s what I would do if I were the Rockets at No. 3 and I decided to keep the pick.

Iko: There are several areas where the Rockets can improve, but I want to focus on two: outside shooting and frontcourt versatility. With that being said, how closely graded are players Sheppard and Dalton Knecht? What about Alexandre Sarr and Donovan Clingan?

Vecenie: I don’t have a particularly close grade on Knecht and Sheppard. I have them in different tiers, and think Sheppard is the more dynamic overall player. Knecht is probably a bit more dynamic as an overall scorer who can run off of movement, deal with contact now in the paint and make shots off of tough actions. But Sheppard is ahead everywhere else, including on defense where I have some questions on both of them, to be honest.

Sarr and Clingan are a closer conversation. I prefer Sarr slightly, but honestly, it’s entirely dependent on what you want your scheme to be, how you want to operate across the court, and your risk appetite.

If you want to play more aggressive coverages and have versatility in what you’re doing on that end, you probably prefer Sarr. If you want to play drop coverage and have elite rim protection as a counter to what Şengün provides (no, the two couldn’t play together), you probably prefer Clingan. If you think Sarr is going to keep developing his shooting and ball skills enough to play the four, you probably prefer him. If you don’t believe that, you probably have more overarching questions about Sarr on the offensive end and prefer Clingan.

Anyone who has one of those players over the other, I get it. I have Sarr at No. 1 and Clingan at No. 4 on my board, but I rank players in a vacuum and not for the specific situations on the team side. Sarr has a bit more of a dynamic quality that would allow him to potentially play with Şengün at some point, so I’d probably prefer to swing there if I were Houston as opposed to Clingan. But the team also already has Smith, who showed serious, significant strides as a second-year player and who I would still take at No. 1 overall in this 2024 class even today.

I would have Sheppard at No. 1 on my board for Houston if I was making a team-specific board, though.

Donovan Clingan is ranked No. 4 on Sam Veceine’s big board. (Christian Petersen/ Getty Images)

Iko: If the Rockets end up trading the pick, what route should they take; moving down to, say, nine with Memphis and adding a rotational piece and future assets, or moving out entirely and adding a star?

Vecenie: Trading down is an intriguing option for them. I don’t see the star player on the board right now that makes a lot of sense for them (I don’t love a potential Brandon Ingram fit, for instance, and think I’d prefer to not pay the exorbitant price tag seemingly set on Mikal Bridges right now). So if a team like Memphis or Chicago wants to move up for Clingan, I would be targeting future assets and draft capital.

Houston is one of the best-positioned teams in the league when it comes to going out to get a star. They have the terrific young talent to be able to go out and get a star, and they also have an enormous cache of picks from Brooklyn. However, if I were Houston, I would be trying to short Brooklyn’s future right now and would not be excited about utilizing their 2025 and 2026 selections in a trade. If I could get further assets in a trade down that would allow me to go out in the future and potentially still outbid teams in the trade market without giving those picks up, that’s a serious route worth consideration.

Iko: Let’s envision that Clingan and Sarr are the first names of the board. Is there an argument to be made for Zaccharie Risacher at No. 3 or is Sheppard simply the better long-term choice?

Vecenie: I prefer Sheppard both as a choice in Houston and simply as a prospect overall. Risacher doesn’t have a ton of star upside necessarily, in my opinion. You can see Sheppard as a better swing for star power if that’s what you’re hoping for in Houston, and that is indeed what I’d be trying to accomplish if I were them. Risacher has a ton of positional size, length and shooting ability. But I don’t love the way he plays through contact and I don’t love his athletic profile. It seems difficult to see him as a shot creator. Houston has several interesting young players who profile as at least solid starters at this point, so I don’t know that I’d need to try to hit a double on draft night if I was keeping this pick. I’d either look to trade it or just take a swing with Sheppard, who I feel fits the core and has a degree of potential.

Iko: Bonus one before I let you out of here: Who should Houston be looking at with their second-round pick?

Vecenie: I’ll give three quick names of players I think make sense depending on what Houston does in the first round. If they pick a player of this position in the first, maybe remove them from this list.

The first player I would love is Jamal Shead. He has a reasonable shot to get there, and his defensive profile is one Udoka would love at the backup point guard spot. He’s a monster point-of-attack defender who fights over screens at an elite level and makes a ton of plays with disruptive hands. Then on offense, he’s a sharp distributor. If the shot ever comes along in any meaningful way, he’ll play in the NBA for a decade.

The second would be Adem Bona. I’m skeptical he gets to No. 44, but he’s had a great pre-draft process where several league sources on the team side have loved his energy and effort. He’s an elite defender at the center position, he has some serious questions about his offensive role due to his hands and his feel for the game on that end. I don’t think you should draft like this — everything should be more in terms of informed bets given potential for upside and growth — but if I was picking 25 players that will stick in the NBA in some capacity, he’d be on that list. He looks tailor-made for a backup center role in some way.

Finally, I’ll note Cam Spencer here. Spencer is older, but he was an awesome player on a great Connecticut team this season as a connective tissue player who made first-team All-Big East and has hit 42 percent of his 3s for his college career. He is a tough team defender, but he’s not all that athletic by NBA standards. He’s a sharp passer with great feel for the game, great off-ball movement, and a flair for the moment. He’s not going to be for everyone, but I’d love to get him at No. 44 and get him into my organization.

(Top photo of Reed Sheppard: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)