For many fantasy baseball managers, the end of June draws that final line in the sand between being responsibly patient and overly passive. To help filter the signal from the noise, I used Fangraph’s new Player Rater to sort out the most heart-wrenching 5×5 producers (defined as active players drafted inside the top 125 overall, with a minimum of 250 PA and <$2 in earned auction value). These seven struggling hitters all cost significant draft capital, only to wildly underperform our initial expectations. Yet, no matter how long you’ve played this unforgiving game of ours, that same question still arises every year. When is enough, enough? Rage-dropping is the easy way out — but one need only look at last year’s example of Jose Abreu to see how being overly reactionary fails us. Universally left for fantasy dead (well, almost), it took a keen and courageous eye to see Abreu’s forest for the trees and buy the seemingly never-ending dip (Read here). Before doing anything rash, I’m deploying my handy-dandy rolling go-go-gadget charts to make an informed rest-of-season determination for all the deflated GMs who happen to be rostering these sinkholes.
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(All stats per Trumedia through June 25)
George Springer, OF, TOR
- 122.9 ADP, -$8.20 earned; 291 PA — .196 AVG, 31 R, 17 RBI, 6 HR, 8 SB
Please forgive my brevity ahead of time, I’m sacrificing some of my usual granular stats to address so many hitters. That said, I’m very worried about Springer. The underlying metrics read like this 34-year-old is about to be the next notch in Father Time’s belt (who remains undefeated throughout all of human history, for the record). Kidding aside, it’s true. Springer is currently combining the improving disciplinary approach that comes with age — at or near career bests in strikeout, walk, swinging strike, and zone-contact rates, with his worst power outputs (by far) in OPS, xwOBA, hard-hit, and barrel rate. The 6 HRs and 8 SBs appear to be a fantasy saving grace but only result from compiling the ample plate appearances that are simultaneously destroying your batting average. There’s a metric ton of data on Springer to date and it’s all moving in the wrong direction — with room for even more downside if this year-over-year bearish channel in wOBA continues (below). Sound the alarm.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, STL
- 103.8 ADP, $1.00 Earned; 302 PA — .257 AVG, 26 R, 32 RBI, 6 HR, 1 SB
At the risk of being labeled an ageist, the argument against Arenado starts on the wrong side of 33. Fact is, there’s no better place for macro perspective than multi-year rolling graphs when analyzing veterans. Any recreational stock analyst could point out in the chart below how clearly lower lows are followed by lower highs — the classic earmark of a continuing bearish channel. And what could be scarier than the halving of his career hard hit and barrel rates? From a technical standpoint, there’s a case to be made we just saw Arenado’s best stretch of 2024. I’d get out from under any shares I had as soon as possible.
Dansby Swanson, SS, CHC
- 119.6 ADP, -$4.47 earned; 259 PA — .217 AVG, 31 R, 26 RBI, 8 HR, 5 SB
I’m definitely less worried about Swanson’s short-term outlook than Springer or Arenado, but I can tell you something for certain right now. Regardless how 2024 winds up, I’m bearish on the macros and Swanson’s off my draft lists going forward. Despite an undeniably brutal start, his underlying power metrics are catching up and the tide may have already started turning. The elevated ground ball rate is disconcerting, but his zone contact is in line with career norms while sustaining strong power stats, especially for a slump: 9.6% Barrel, 109 mph max EV, .400 xwOBAcon. Given that he’s playing every day for a Cubs lineup getting back to full strength, I’d hold the line on Swanson. Categorical production has been there — 4 HR and 1 SB since returning from the IL — and the year-over-year wOBA chart below expects a bullish leg to close out 2024. Good buy-low opportunity here.
Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS, CHC
- 63.7 ADP, -$4.22 earned; 288 PA — .242 AVG, 37 R, 18 RBI, 2 HR, 13 SB
Hoerner wound up on my fade list this draft season, so I can’t say this one shocks me. As an award-winning, semi-internet-famous writer once said, and I quote, “Using premium picks on players who can’t hit homers is the quickest route to the bottom of the standings.” Couldn’t have said it better myself. Victory lap aside, while I’d assert Hoerner’s batting average likely represents an outlier due for positive regression, the contact quality necessary to float a viable stat line just isn’t there. However, there is hope for his rest-of-season outlook. With only one direction left to go on the rolling wOBA chart (below), Hoerner recently reassumed the leadoff spot that sparked last season’s breakout.
Gleyber Torres, 2B, NYY
- 79.7 ADP, -$0.78 Earned; 327 PA — .216 AVG, 36 R, 29 RBI, 7 HR, 4 SB
As a Yankees fan, this one hurts, but baseball is funny like that, I guess. Had you told me beforehand that he’d produce this utterly disappointing stat line through June, there’s no way I’d bet on the Yanks to be two dozen games over .500. Entering his prime age 27 season, no one expected such a stark drop off in power, but it’s a little late for that at this point. What should Torres’ GMs do now that he’s betting seventh? Removing bias the best I can, there’s very little evidence of a coming breakout anywhere on this year’s spreadsheet. According to the chart (below), while there’s still a technical argument for future continuation, I’m struggling to get past the outright disappearance of contact quality — evidenced in his putrid .304 xwOBAcon. Torres could also be hurt — he left the second game of the year in Houston after being hit by a Tayler Scott pitch on the hand, and now I find myself struggling to ignore what might be a critical data point. Considering the different layers of uncertainty, I have to recommend moving on from this version of Gleyber in redraft leagues.
Randy Arozarena, OF, TB
- 43.8 ADP, $1.18 earned; 313 PA — .197 AVG, 33 R, 27 RBI, 10 HR, 10 SB)
Not getting six straight months of fantasy domination from any top 50 pick always disappoints. That said, once the best players in the game string together stretches of play that resemble prior expectations, I’m ready to amputate those early struggles from my analysis. Randy “Macho Man” Arozarena is a perfect real-time example. Regardless of how badly he sandbagged your squad early on, it’s irrelevant at this point — and the emerging underlying skills can’t be ignored. Arozarena finally jumpstarted the engine in 87 June PAs: .292 BA, 8 R, 8 RBI, 2 HR, 3SB; .895 OPS, 42.0% Hard Hit, 10.0% Barrel, .402 xwOBA, 166 wRC+. If you weathered the storm to this point, don’t give up now. And if you think you can still pry Arozarena from his current GM at 75 cents on the dollar, do it before it’s too late.
Corbin Carroll, OF, ARI
- 6.5 ADP, $2.08 earned; 325 PA — .211 AVG, 44 R, 23 RBI, 2 HR, 14 SB
Carroll’s too fascinating a case to truly tackle properly without really drilling deep, but let’s see if I can’t at least scratch the surface. The combination of a premium price plus possibility allows for the creation of compelling cases in either direction. Before we begin, assume health for this exercise (if you don’t think his shoulder’s ok, ignore all analysis and run for the hills now). The bull case for Carroll starts with potentially sunk first-round draft capital that can’t be recouped via trade and ends with hope for normal regression in BABIP (.256) and HR/FB (2.5%). More batted balls finding grass boosts BA, increasing total SB/R opportunities and opening the pathway to viability given the way he’s running.
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The downside pitch for Carroll sits more in the data and reloads the same argument used against Nico Hoerner (ducks). Heading into this season, Carroll’s underlying career power metrics (32.3% Hard Hit, 7.3% Barrel, 89.5 Avg EV) underwhelmed at best, leaving the door cracked open to the type of power outage he’s experiencing. Carroll’s rolling wOBA chart currently sits with me right on the fence at a critical inflection point. Will it head back down to new lows, rendering Carroll as an unmitigated bust, or will it surge through the channel top and reassume the upward trajectory from 2022-2023? Shy of any definitive stand, it’s going to come down to a case-by-case basis — I’d entertain fair trade offers in either direction that directly address team needs without shipping my first pick away for mere cents on the dollar. In keep/dynasty leagues, please make sure you are wowed before selling a 23-year-old with game-changing potential.
Thanks so much for reading — Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for all the MLB / NFL fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo of Corbin Carroll: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
