I’ve always been glass half-empty when it comes to Everton. That’s probably what growing up following the club during the gloomy Walter Smith era and years of near-misses and false dawns does to you.
So maybe I should be forgiven for feeling a little trepidatious about what would come next after the collapse of the 777 deal.
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While the way that played out was clearly a blessing in disguise, I wondered how quickly a new agreement could be reached and whether owner Farhad Moshiri would make the right choice in terms of seller. It was a question of whether his priorities and those of the club were aligned, and how Everton would fund itself in the meantime given 777’s loans had been used for everyday working capital.
Speaking to those in investment circles about Everton’s situation this season, the messaging would often be consistent: great club, passionate fanbase and untapped potential, but with so much external debt that any new owner would need very deep pockets. Cheaper and less risky deals could be done for clubs, albeit not those with Everton’s history.
Yet here we are, a month on having witnessed tangible progress, and with rays of light on the horizon. The Friedkin Group has not only entered exclusivity with Moshiri, but also ploughed in £200million ($254m) already to pay off the MSP loan and help Everton with working capital. As far as those developments go, even a glass-half-empty guy would struggle to see them as anything other than positive.
Interior and exterior progress. 🚧 pic.twitter.com/wkLQeamzUN
— Everton Stadium (@EvertonStadium) June 18, 2024
Many will be wondering what’s changed since those dreary days of the increasingly forlorn 777 bid.
The answer, at least in part, is that the new stadium has been a saving grace for Everton. It has continued to develop apace — in just over a year, the club are scheduled to play their first competitive fixture there — and at the same time, Premier League status has been secured for a further season. By hook or by crook, they have found a way through, and the promise of the new stadium is real and tangible.
There is a feeling opportunities like Everton don’t come around all that often, and that there are signs the oil tanker can be turned around — some would say is already being turned around. Would-be buyers also felt Moshiri would need to be more realistic about his asking price, given the levels of external debt.
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Finally, all those things seem to have aligned.
On the face of it, Friedkin, like other prospective buyers, represents a significant upgrade on the baseball cap crew from Miami. In truth, most would be. But the group, headed by Dan Friedkin, can at least point to a long and successful track record in business as a starting point.
So far, so good then.
Football clubs? Well, let’s see. Even Friedkin’s stint at Roma is still in its early stages.
Of course, it wouldn’t be Everton without the usual caveats. Those close to the process have been at pains to point out that this is not yet a fait accompli, especially with Moshiri’s unpredictability and multiple creditors to satisfy. Things can change quickly. At multiple stages in this process, others felt they were in the box seat.
We still need to hear much more about Friedkin’s vision for the club before a proper judgment can be made.
Headline figures, for example, are meaningless when the club’s external debt is about £450million, a figure that goes higher if you include Friedkin’s investment.
GO DEEPER
Friedkin has reached an agreement to buy Everton from Moshiri - what happens next?
How will he treat 777’s debt position, now assumed by A-Cap? Credit should be given for satisfying the MSP loan already, but is the plan to continue using the opaque Rights and Media Funding or move them on? Beyond this supposedly being an all-equity bid, how will the rest of the stadium development be funded? Will cuts need to be made across the club?
As for the football side, how will Everton and Roma interact? The early hints suggest the two clubs will be on an even footing, surely a pre-requisite given neither would want to play second fiddle. How it works in practice will be intriguing.
What does Friedkin want the club’s footballing identity to be and how happy is he with the existing model and its incumbents, including Sean Dyche and director of football Kevin Thelwell? Other would-be owners made positive noises about those two, but both are entering the final year of their deals. Speedy resolutions are essential.
How involved would Friedkin and his son, Ryan, be in hires, fires and transfers?
Friedkin will need to appoint a new board to give the club a fresh direction, grow Everton commercially and take advantage of the opportunities that come with the new stadium move.
In other words, there is plenty to do and much to learn.
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Those close to the process say it is too early to go into that detail. There is a desire to engage with fans, but at the right time. Elements of the deal are subject to change, so the Premier League’s owners’ and directors’ test can only formally commence when everything is agreed.
Until then, caution — perhaps cautious optimism — is the order of the day. Nobody gets a free pass where Everton are concerned.
I can’t help but go back to a couple of months ago and the outlook then. It has been bleak following the club these last few years, where the only goal has been survival. Even victories have been tempered by the existential concern around the club. And staff at all levels have had to spend far too long wondering about their job security.
This deal at least gives everyone a sense of hope that something better is possible, that there is a way out of the mire and a bright future ahead if smart decisions are made.
Surely everyone can get on board with that.
(Top photo: Ryan, left, and father Dan Friedkin watching Roma play. Massimo Insabato/Archivio Massimo Insabato/Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Images)
