Things continue changing across the high-leverage landscape in the week since our last update. Yimi García landed on the injured list with a nerve issue in his elbow. Jordan Romano remains sidelined, leaving the Blue Jays bullpen thin.
Edwin Díaz has reestablished himself as the Mets’ closer, and Andrés Muñoz has cleared his health hurdle, securing a five-out save in Cleveland. More changes lie on the horizon, and there are notes for each team with the trade deadline drawing nearer. Reading what teams will be making the biggest moves will be tough, especially with the current standings.
There have been a few tweaks in our leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:
- Mostly Linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it’s usually a predictable leverage pathway.
- Primary Save Share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in match-up-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season.
- Shared Saves: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness, rest, or recent usage patterns that keep them fresh. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. Some teams also prefer a match-up-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, causing fluid save opportunities.
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AL Notes of Interest
- Baltimore Orioles: Will Craig Kimbrel be setting up or closing games after the All-Star break?
- Boston Red Sox: Since June 9, Kenley Jansen has recorded a win and converted four straight saves.
- Chicago White Sox: Can the White Sox build the trade market for John Brebbia and Michael Kopech with them sharing saves?
- Cleveland Guardians: This leverage ladder offers a spoil of riches, and Andrew Walters could be ready for MLB action in the second half.
- Detroit Tigers: Jason Foley posted nine saves in March and April, and has three since, with only one in June.
- Houston Astros: Perhaps turning the corner, Ryan Pressly has secured two ancillary saves this month, one more than the closer above and below this blurb.
- Kansas City Royals: Through May 11, James McArthur had 11 saves. He’s only recorded one in nine appearances since.
- Los Angeles Angels: Yes, Carlos Estévez can be streaky, but he’s posted a win and converted six straight saves with seven clean appearances.
- Minnesota Twins: Playing Robin to Jhoan Durán’s Batman, Griffin Jax ranks 22nd among all relievers in Win Probability Added.
- New York Yankees: This bullpen ranks 22nd in the majors in strikeout and K-BB percentage but sixth in ERA while sitting 22nd in SIERA. It lacks depth and should be addressed sooner rather than later.
- Oakland Athletics: Lucas Erceg’s transition off the injured list has been rough. He’s allowed a run in three of four outings and has a 2.67 WHIP over three innings.
- Seattle Mariners: Despite his back ailments, Andrés Muñoz has recorded eight multiple-inning appearances this year and leads all MLB relievers with five saves requiring four or more outs. Perhaps his back hurts from carrying this leverage ladder?
- Tampa Bay Rays: Initial reports suggest it’s only a thumb contusion that knocked Pete Fairbanks from his most recent outing — stay tuned.
- Texas Rangers: It will be fascinating to see how this team handles the trade deadline. As a gentle reminder, Kirby Yates, David Robertson (mutual option), and José Leclerc could be free agents at the end of the season.
- Toronto Blue Jays: It’s been a revolving door at the closer position for this team, and it’s currently filled by Chad Green. However, with Jordan Romano and Yimi García on the injured list, can the bridge relievers provide Green with save chances in the interim?
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NL Notes of Interest
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Paul Sewald last recorded a save on June 6. In the 10 games since, each game has been decided by five or more runs.
- Atlanta Braves: Raisel Iglesias has been recording more strikeouts in recent outings and ramping up his slider use — keep tabs on this moving forward.
- Chicago Cubs: This bullpen has had a rough stretch, and Héctor Neris has received some time off for a mental reset. How he responds may determine how roles in it evolve until the All-Star break.
- Cincinnati Reds: Fernando Cruz ranks third among his peers in strikeout percentage (40.1), 10th in K-BB percentage (27.7), and 16th in SIERA (2.39).
- Colorado Rockies: This bullpen ranks last in the majors in WHIP (1.60), K-BB percentage (7.2), and SIERA (4.47).
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Alex Vesia has secured two saves and three holds while recording a 16:3 K:BB (34.2 K-BB percentage) and a 0.56 WHIP over his past 10 outings.
- Miami Marlins: Enhancing his trade stock, Tanner Scott hasn’t been scored upon in 16 of 17 appearances, with 22 strikeouts through 18.1 innings.
- Milwaukee Brewers: Can Devin Williams return after the All-Star break? If yes, how effective will he be?
- New York Mets: Since returning from the injured list, Edwin Díaz has recorded a win and two saves in three scoreless outings.
- Philadelphia Phillies: Over the past 30 days, José Alvarado has four saves in six chances and two holds. Jeff Hoffman has notched two saves and five holds. “Floating closer” for the win, with unselfish relievers making it work.
- Pittsburgh Pirates: David Bednar has converted all five save chances this month.
- San Diego Padres: Although Robert Suarez suffered his first blown save, he bounced back the next day and has secured 18 of 19 save opportunities in a breakout campaign.
- St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals are 18-1 when Ryan Helsley, Andrew Kittredge, and JoJo Romero all pitch in the same game.
- Washington Nationals: Will Washington keep its dynamic leverage duo? Kyle Finnegan (21 saves) and Hunter Harvey (22 holds) only trail Helsley and Romero (44 SOLDS) in saves plus holds as a tandem this year.
Relievers on the Rise
Dedniel Núñez (NYM): For the season, he has a 0.74 WHIP, 26 strikeouts, and three walks in 17.2 innings. This represents a small sample, but it’s been an intriguing one. He relies on two pitches:
- Four-seam fastball: .189 expected batting average (xBA), .247 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), and a 19.2 swinging strike percentage
- Slider: .120 xBA, .244 xwOBA, and a 22.4 swinging strike percentage
He can be a bit vulnerable against left-handed hitters, who own a .351 weighted on-base average against him, but he’s racked up three holds with 11 strikeouts versus zero walks through five games in June. He’s also recorded at least four outs in each of these contests.
John Brebbia (CHW): Excitement does not teem when highlighting a veteran reliever with a stable skill set, but he could be more involved with save situations for the White Sox moving forward. He secured a one-out save and hasn’t been scored upon in seven of his past eight games, featuring a 14:1 K:BB over 7.2 innings.
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Zack Kelly (BOS): Through seven games in June, he hasn’t allowed a hit, while posting a win and two holds. He’s recorded 13 strikeouts against three walks of his past 29 batters faced, resulting in a 42.9 K-BB percentage and a 0.15 WHIP across his past 6.2 innings.
Michael Tonkin (NYY): A well-traveled reliever who has markedly improved during his tenure with the Yankees, Tonkin has recorded a win and a save with 13 strikeouts versus four walks over 10.1 innings in eight outings in June. His 0.68 WHIP and 23.7 K-BB percentage lead his team’s leverage ladder, and although his 2.69 SIERA suggests some migration toward the mean, he could be a sneaky stream play in SOLDS formats.
Closer Concerns
Clay Holmes (NYY): He’s not in danger of losing his role atop the Yankees’ bullpen hierarchy, but he’s been going through rough outings recently. He’s allowed multiple hits in four straight contests and multiple runs in his past three. Being a contact pitcher during high-leverage events can be tricky, though his ground ball rates insulate his results. However, his sinker has been providing a higher xwOBA this year:
When peering into his splits by pitch this season compared with last year, here are his results:
He’s already adjusted by throwing fewer sinkers, but if his command frays in an outing, it causes traffic on the bases. He walks a fine line as a closer. If the team harbors aspirations for a deep run in the postseason, it may acquire a veteran reliever with closer experience, shifting Holmes into a set-up capacity. Monitor his outings through the All-Star break closely.
Ryan Helsley (STL): Let’s not get crazy here; he’s been terrific this season and leads the majors with 24 saves and 30 games finished. This concern lies more in usage patterns and their effect on his velocity. In six days between June 11 and 16, he appeared in four games, throwing 80 pitches. He has not made an appearance since. When going through his daily logs, this chart from Statcast displays his average velocity by pitch in each game:
He’s missed time in 2021 (elbow) and 2023 (arm) because of injury. His velocities above could be fatigue, and it’s very likely. However, he’s also been popping up in trade rumors, though his team prefers keeping him for a run at the playoffs. His health and the team’s playoff chances likely determine if he remains atop the leaderboard for saves among his peers. Keep tabs on his outings until the All-Star break and if he keeps throwing more sliders than four-seam fastballs:
Save Stashes
- Justin Slaten; Liam Hendriks (BOS)
- Carlos Hernández (KCR)
- Jordan Leasure (CHW)
- Calvin Faucher/Andrew Nardi (MIA)
- Ben Joyce (LAA)
Ancillary Save Options
- Ryne Stanek (SEA)
- Jeff Hoffman (PHI)
- Ryan Pressly (HOU)
- Griffin Jax (MIIN)
- Nate Pearson (TOR)
- Joe Jiménez (ATL)
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Ratio Relievers
*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios
- Matt Strahm (PHI)
- Bryan Hudson (MIL)
- Dedniel Núñez (NYM)
- Zack Kelly (BOS)
- Justin Slaten (BOS)
Tiered Rankings for Saves and SOLDS
Statistical Credits (through June 11): Fangraphs.com; Baseball-Reference.com; BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net
For daily coverage of bullpens, check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey
(Top photo of Dedniel Núñez: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports)
