As you scroll through X this morning, you will have done well to avoid seeing a post from somewhere saying, “It’s always us that gets the hardest start.”
The European Championship may have barely started, but the Premier League is not to be forgotten. Now, with the release of the competition’s 2024-25 fixture list, the analysis, the build-up and the suspense can already start.
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Not everybody can be left pleased with how their season will begin. While every team plays the 19 others twice over the 10 months, once at home and once away, seasons can be shaped by the opening few fixtures acting as momentum builders or confidence destroyers.
So, objectively, how tough is your team’s start?
The Athletic has ranked every Premier League club’s opening five matches, based on last season’s final table. We’ve added in the three promoted sides, Leicester City (champions), Ipswich Town (runners-up) and Southampton (play-off final winners), as the 18th, 19th and 20th hardest teams to play respectively.
We’ve added it up to give each team’s start a ‘difficulty value’. The lower the score, the harder it is.
Where does your team rank? Read on…
1. West Ham United
Welcome back to the Premier League, Julen Lopetegui. There’s no time to settle back in, as you’ve been gifted the hardest start to the campaign. Congratulations. Replacing David Moyes, as head coach rather than manager, the Spaniard will be keen to bank some early points and get the supporters on side. But his life has now been made more difficult with two of last season’s top four among the opening five matches, including four-in-a-row champions Manchester City.
Fixtures: Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Manchester City, Fulham, Chelsea
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 34
2. Arsenal
After going even closer to the title last season than when also finishing as runners-up to City in 2022-23, Mikel Arteta will be hoping his side can take that final step this season. Arsenal will have to be on their game from the off, as they face three of the top five in their opening five matches, including early meetings with north London rivals Tottenham Hotspur and the champions. It could be the perfect chance to build an early-season lead, but also has the potential to go wrong.
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Fixtures: Wolverhampton Wanderers, Aston Villa, Brighton & Hove Albion, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 35
3. Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolves head coach Gary O’Neil’s main hope will be for his team to come through the first five games of next season without VAR costing them goals and points. In his second season in charge at Molineux, O’Neil will be looking to build on a positive 2023-24 where Wolves finished a comfortable 14th, although he has been handed a tough start, with four of the five matches against sides who were in last season’s final top seven.
Fixtures: Arsenal, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle United, Aston Villa
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 36
4. Brentford
After a difficult season for coach Thomas Frank and his side, getting off to a positive start this time has been made difficult by the fixture list. With Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham all to play in the opening weeks, points must come against Southampton and Crystal Palace. That is unless they can produce a shock — which is not exactly uncommon for Brentford.
Fixtures: Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Southampton, Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 39
5. Chelsea
The pressure will be on Enzo Maresca to start quickly after becoming Chelsea’s new coach following Mauricio Pochettino’s departure at the end of his only season at the club. He probably would have preferred anyone but his teacher in his time as a Manchester City assistant, Pep Guardiola, to be coming to town for his first game in charge. The other four fixtures in the first five offer the chance to get points on the board early, which the man who steered Leicester to promotion last season will need.
Fixtures: Manchester City, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, West Ham United
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 46
6. Leicester City
For any prospective candidates for the vacant Leicester job, you won’t be walking into the kindest start. The Championship winners, who are also facing potential points deductions for breaching financial rules, have the hardest start of the three promoted teams. Tottenham and Aston Villa provide stern early tests for whoever the new manager will be.
Fixtures: Tottenham Hotspur, Fulham, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Everton
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 47
=7. Bournemouth
After Andoni Iraola’s impressive first season as Bournemouth coach, the challenge is to continue moving in the right direction this season. Their terrible start last time means things can only improve, although their opening five games include likely tough tests against Newcastle, Chelsea and Liverpool.
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Fixtures: Nottingham Forest, Newcastle United, Everton, Chelsea, Liverpool
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 48
=7. Ipswich Town
Kieran McKenna decided to stay loyal to Ipswich, despite interest from elsewhere. He will hope to continue the meteoric rise he and his team are on via successive promotions by securing Premier League survival. They’re jumping straight into the deep end, with Liverpool and Manchester City as their first two games. Their next three offer better opportunities to pick up points, but never rule out a shock result at the start of a season.
Fixtures: Liverpool, Manchester City, Fulham, Brighton & Hove Albion, Southampton
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 48
9. Everton
Sean Dyche’s side should be free from the points deductions that hampered them last season, and the aim will be to make sure they back up what would have been a comfortable mid-table finish without those punishments. Their early fixture list is fairly balanced, with games against Brighton, Bournemouth and Leicester looking like key points-building opportunities. Tottenham and Aston Villa will provide sterner tests.
Fixtures: Brighton & Hove Albion, Tottenham Hotspur, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Leicester City
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 50
10. Manchester City
Pep Guardiola’s side make winning the Premier League look so simple that arguably they shouldn’t be included in this — because no matter the difficulty, they always seem to make it seem so easy. However, as they look to make it five league titles in a row, will there be a weakness this time around? Their first five fixtures offer up a range of challenges, but also a chance to lay an early blow on one of their anticipated title rivals, Arsenal.
Fixtures: Chelsea, Ipswich Town, West Ham United, Brentford, Arsenal
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 52
=11. Crystal Palace
Oliver Glasner’s side finished last season as one of the Premier League’s in-form teams and the aim will be to continue that when the games begin again in August. It won’t be simple, with three of their opening five matches against teams who finished just above them in May, but they showed on the run-in that they can compete with everybody.
Fixtures: Brentford, West Ham United, Chelsea, Leicester City, Manchester United
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 57
=11. Manchester United
Erik ten Hag will continue as Manchester United manager, but the pressure will be on from the moment his side get the new Premier League season underway at home against Fulham. The Dutchman must improve on last season’s eighth-place finish — United’s worst in the Premier League era. Starting well is a must and the fixtures handed to them are favourable, although the home match against Liverpool could be very significant.
Fixtures: Fulham, Brighton & Hove Albion, Liverpool, Southampton, Crystal Palace
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 57
=13. Aston Villa
Unai Emery’s side were the surprise top-four disruptors last season, and their aim will be to repeat that feat in the upcoming campaign.
With eight Champions League fixtures leaving little room for rest, starting well and getting points on the board before those European midweek games come along will be important. Villa’s start is far from trouble-free, with Arsenal to play on the second weekend, but there is plenty of opportunity to pick up points in the other four matches.
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Fixtures: West Ham United, Arsenal, Leicester City, Everton, Wolverhampton Wanderers
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 58
=13. Tottenham Hotspur
Ange Postecoglou got his side off to an electric start in his first season in charge at Spurs as they topped the 2023-24 table in the early months before form dropped as the year went on. He has another good opportunity to start well again with this set of fixtures. That said, a home north London derby could be a defining mood-setter for the months to come.
Fixtures: Leicester City, Everton, Newcastle United, Arsenal, Brentford
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 58
15. Nottingham Forest
After a points deduction last season and a relegation fight, Nuno Espirito Santo and his team will be looking to avoid any such battle this time. Getting off to a good start is likely to be crucial to that. Although they face Liverpool, their four other fixtures are against either teams who finished in the bottom half last month or ones who have been promoted.
Fixtures: Bournemouth, Southampton, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Liverpool, Brighton & Hove Albion
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 60
=16. Brighton & Hove Albion
When Fabian Hurzeler takes his place in the dugout at Goodison Park in August, no doubt a few of the Brighton players out on the pitch will be older than their 31-year-old head coach. The youngest-ever Premier League manager might feel like he’s been thrown into the deep end. The early fixture list could have looked much worse, frankly, although Manchester United and Arsenal will provide tough tests.
Fixtures: Everton, Manchester United, Arsenal, Ipswich Town, Nottingham Forest
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 61
=16. Fulham
Marco Silva will be looking to continue to build on the solid foundations he has put in place at Fulham over the past two seasons. Three matches from his opening five are against top-10 teams from last time, but they face promoted sides in the other two. Those are both great chances to put points on the board, but they can’t afford slip-ups if the other games don’t go to plan.
Fixtures: Manchester United, Leicester City, Ipswich Town, West Ham United, Newcastle United
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 61
18. Newcastle United
A year after being handed the most difficult start of all to the 2023-24 Premier League, coach Eddie Howe will be much happier with this set of opening fixtures as Newcastle set about trying to secure a return to European football. Taking on three sides who finished in the bottom half last season and promoted Southampton means momentum can be built quickly, even if they welcome Spurs in the middle of all that.
Fixtures: Southampton, Bournemouth, Tottenham Hotspur, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Fulham
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 64
19. Southampton
As Southampton return to the Premier League following a season away, manager Russell Martin should be pleased with their opening five fixtures. Newcastle and Manchester United will be tough, but they face fellow promoted side Ipswich as well as the clubs who finished 16th and 17th last month. Those games are prime opportunities to get early points on the board. They can’t afford to start slowly and waste them.
Fixtures: Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Manchester United, Ipswich Town
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 67
20. Liverpool
New head coach Arne Slot could not have wished for a much better start. Liverpool face three teams who finished in the bottom half last season and a promoted side as the former Feyenoord boss gets his feet under the table and adapts to the Premier League. After a third-place finish last season, this is a great opportunity to build momentum and get out of the blocks quickly — although Manchester United at Old Trafford provides a unique hurdle to scramble over.
Fixtures: Ipswich Town, Brentford, Manchester United, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth
Total ‘difficulty’ value: 72
(Top photo: Getty Images)
