Rockets and the No. 3 pick: Analyzing Reed Sheppard’s isolation defense

Between now and the 2024 NBA Draft, The Athletic will examine potential options with the No. 3 pick for the Houston Rockets, focusing on one specific on-court aspect of each prospect. The aim is to discover whether or not certain skills translate not only to the NBA, but to the Rockets and what they are building. Up first: Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard and isolation defense.

In discussions centered around sharpshooter Reed Sheppard, whether with league executives, scouts or even his coaches at Kentucky, two prevalent themes have been attached to his draft stock: offensive feel for the game and defensive instincts.

For an undersized guard — Sheppard measured at 6-foot-1.75 without shoes and a 6-foot-3.25 wingspan at the draft combine last month — the latter is arguably more important. The NBA has had a lengthy list of floor spacers over the years who couldn’t defend consistently, limiting their overall impact. Shooting is a premium at every level of basketball and Sheppard’s eye-popping splits are the biggest reason why he’s a green room invite, but it doesn’t tell the complete story.

“His high basketball IQ, defensively, he uses it so well,” said former Kentucky assistant coach John Welch, who is leaving the Wildcats for Fresno State next season. “Especially away from the ball, reading plays, being able to get steals, knowing where the ball is going to be passed in advance. And on the ball, using his instincts to get his hands on the ball, forcing a lot of timely turnovers for us.”

Sheppard’s physical traits are somewhat comparable to that of Fred VanVleet, Houston’s current lead ball handler. VanVleet, who has built a reputation as one of the better pound-for-pound defenders in the NBA, is 6-foot-1 in shoes with a 6-foot-2 wingspan. Despite being undersized, VanVleet has historically leveraged his physicality, quick hands and overall IQ to render himself useful to a half-court defensive scheme. Between 2019 and 2024, VanVleet registered at least 2.2 combined steals and blocks (or “stocks”) per game and has finished with a net positive defensive rating in seven out of his eight seasons, according to Cleaning The Glass. For reference, Sheppard finished his freshman season with an impressive 3.5 stocks per game.

Does this mean Sheppard’s defensive acumen will seamlessly translate to the pros? Not necessarily. VanVleet might be shorter than Sheppard, but from a physical standpoint (nearly 20 pounds bigger than the incoming rookie), he has proven more than capable of holding his own. But Sheppard’s ability to generate steals and blocks at a positive rate certainly gives us a good floor to work from.

Sheppard grades as a solid defender, with four out of his five most common defensive possessions placing him between the 44th and 59th percentile of Division I players. When evaluating defenders and their capabilities at that end of the floor, a combined effort — team and individually — comes into play. Last season, Kentucky allowed .900 points per possession with Sheppard on the floor, compared to .998 with him off, according to Synergy tracking data. Synergy’s Player Impact, an adjustable metric for teammates and opponents designed to illustrate impact during a player’s minutes on the floor, grades Sheppard as a plus-2.7. In simple terms, Sheppard’s teammates would be 2.7 points better defensively with him on the floor than with a college-level replacement.

As it pertains to one-on-one defense at the NBA level, however, more nuance is required. Sheppard was far from a liability at Kentucky, but it’s still the area where coaches spent the most time working with him. His size, or lack thereof, wasn’t seen as a deterrent or an indicator of any defensive shortcomings. With Sheppard, it was more about continuing to learn about positioning, footwork and technique.

Last season, Sheppard spent a considerable amount of time sitting with assistant coaches watching film of his defensive possessions. College is less scheme specific than the NBA and more about “effort and technique,” as Welch says, so part of the developmental process for Sheppard was having him talk through clips, explaining his thought process on certain possessions.

“We worked on guarding the ball,” Welch said. “He worked every day, just being able to stay in front of the ball. The challenge against quick guards is keeping them in front. I think he improved quite a bit as the season went along. He was always good at creating turnovers but just playing solid defense and not letting his guy get by him, that was our point of emphasis.”

I watched every isolation defensive possession Sheppard was involved in last season to get a better sense of who he is. In recent years, I’ve become more aligned with reading stats, using the eye test as a means to formulate an idea, then going back to the numbers to see if there’s any validity to conclusions drawn. Defending isn’t an exact science, and one-on-one situations can be even murkier, with other determining factors — teammates on the floor, shot clock, score — all potentially playing a part in not only the type of shot taken, but the defense played as well.

Sheppard’s isolation defense is broken down into two main categories, whether he stayed attached to his man or was blown by. In situations where he was initially blown by, either he recovered or didn’t. In instances where he stayed attached, three things occurred; either Sheppard forced a good shot contest, had a poor one or forced a stop (active hands). Here’s the official breakdown:

Total Isolation Defensive Possessions: 30

Stayed Attached

• Good contest (includes foul called): 12

• Poor contest: 10

• Forced stop (active hands): 1

Blown By

• Recovered: 1

• Did Not Recover: 5

• Fouled: 1

Sheppard is a risk taker, relying on his quickness and timing to come away with stocks and often, gambling puts you at a disadvantage, especially in the SEC which boasts many quick guards. Sheppard begins the possession below with a solid stance and momentarily pokes the ball loose. After attempting to steal the ball again and missing, his matchup has an open lane to attack the rim, but Sheppard’s instincts kick in as he’s able to time his opponent’s leap to perfection to knock the ball loose.

But Sheppard’s penchant for aggression won’t always pay off, which is why positioning and footwork matters. Play too high and swipe for the ball, and one crossover is all it takes to nullify Sheppard’s ploy. His chase-down attempt is unsuccessful and leads to a hard foul.

Sheppard will occasionally find himself on an island against a bigger, stronger opponent like Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht (another green room invitee), so opposing teams might clear one side of the floor for him to attack. Again, Sheppard swipes at the ball, and his positioning and lack of physicality allows Knecht a straight-line drive to the rim. Sheppard tested well for his lateral quickness at the combine with a lane agility time of 10.96 seconds, but that doesn’t always translate to live-game scenarios like this.

Where Sheppard should find success is in late-clock situations, where athleticism shows. The shorter window Sheppard has to work with, the easier he can stick with an opponent and use his vertical leap to contest shots. He does a good job forcing the ball toward the baseline, staying attached and forcing a tough, low-percentage look.

So, what does that portend for a future in Houston? Rockets head coach Ime Udoka has made it clear that for his young players to get playing time, they have to not only defend but also show effort and stay solid within the scheme. Under Udoka, smaller guards like VanVleet were excellent isolation defenders despite being undersized, because of their physicality, attention to detail and mechanics. This is in addition to the high-level floor spacing (like Sheppard) they bring offensively. There’s potentially a Holiday-sized hole to fill this offseason, and Sheppard could theoretically slot in, but making him a stronger, smarter defender will require a thorough development plan.

Sheppard is a fantastic shooter and smart, unselfish offensive player who understands half-court basketball and has connectivity to his game. Defensively, he’s also shown capabilities of generating timely stops, but for him to fully achieve his potential at that end of the floor, he’ll need to be more disciplined at the NBA level.

(Photo of Reed Sheppard defending: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)