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Death, taxes and the value of being a quarterback. Despite a record-setting deal, Justin Jefferson will average $5 million per year less than Daniel Jones. More on the WR’s new contract below, plus:
- 📹 Deshaun Watson in OTAs
- 📚 New play-callers
- 📩 Perspectives on NFLPA’s proposal
- 💔 Cowboys legend passes
Why Justin Jefferson’s contract makes sense
Yesterday morning, Justin Jefferson agreed to terms with the Vikings on a four-year, $140 million contract extension that includes $110 million practically guaranteed and $88.74 million fully guaranteed at the contract signing. The extension keeps Jefferson in Minnesota through 2028, his age 29 season.
Jefferson, who turns 25 later this month, received an average annual value of $35 million. That makes him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history.
As Paul Dehner Jr. noted, those guarantees are significant, as the previous record for money fully guaranteed at signing to a receiver was Miami’s $52 million to Tyreek Hill. Jefferson landed nearly $89 million.
Below are many reasons why this deal makes sense. It’s also important to remember the low success rate of first-round wide receivers and the fact that Calvin Johnson’s $18.8 million APY in 2012 was 15.6 percent of the cap, while Jefferson’s $35 million is just 13.7 percent. The numbers are higher (thanks, legalized sports betting!), but the slice of the cap is not.
The stats:
- Jefferson’s 98.3 yards per game rank first all-time, an incredible 12.2 yards per game higher than second-ranked Calvin Johnson’s career (86.1) and better than even Odell Beckham Jr.’s first four seasons (94.1).
- Jefferson averaged a career-high 107.4 yards per game in 2023.
- His 5,899 receiving yards are the most any receiver has ever recorded through his first four seasons, despite him missing seven games last season.
- At 23 years old in 2022, he was the youngest player to ever lead the league in receptions (128) and receiving yards (1,809).
The fit: As Alec Lewis notes, “Jefferson will not only serve as a safety valve for [rookie QB J.J.] McCarthy, especially in third-and-long situations, but he is also an upbeat and positive captain who has never complained about targets nor touches.”
It helps that even after this extension, Minnesota has significant cap space for 2025 and beyond after replacing Kirk Cousins with Sam Darnold and McCarthy.
The cap: Spotrac’s breakdown includes a list of Jefferson’s salary cap charges, which use bonuses to get surprisingly low early-year hits:
- 2024: $8,512,600
- 2025: $15,317,600
- 2026: $39,137,600
- 2027: $43,397,600
- 2028: $47,387,600
- 2029: $6,000,000 (voidable dead cap)
The next deals: Cowboys and Bengals negotiators — across the table from CeeDee Lamb and Ja’Marr Chase, respectively — now know where the high mark is. And it’s much, much higher. For Cincinnati, guarantees could be a problem.
But it’s a great time to be a young receiver. With Jefferson’s $140 million, the eight receivers to get major extensions this offseason have a combined total value of $711 million. If Lamb and Chase get their deals done, that number could approach $1 billion to 10 receivers.
Alec has more on why this extension was always in the cards. Now, over to Dianna for an update from Cleveland.
What Dianna’s Hearing: What Watson can shoulder at OTAs
Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has been throwing every other day during OTAs as he continues to rehab from November shoulder surgery.
While he participated in the jog-through portion of practice, he hasn’t thrown in any full-speed team drills. Backup quarterback Jameis Winston has taken the majority of the first-team reps while Watson goes through reps mentally.
The team’s three-day mandatory minicamp begins next week before a summer break; I don’t expect Watson to throw at full speed until at least training camp. By all accounts, he has a good grasp on the blended offense that reigning NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski and new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey have installed.
Back to you, Jacob.
Coaching Carousal: Schemes of Zac Robinson and Arthur Smith
This morning, The Athletic’s Mike Jones broke down one pressing question for the 15 teams with new offensive play-callers. Six of them are joined by newly signed quarterbacks. Let’s take a quick look into two of Mike’s questions:
On Falcons OC Zac Robinson and QB Kirk Cousins: “Can the former Rams assistant position Kirk Cousins for the ever-elusive breakthrough?”
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I expect Cousins to perform similarly to his impressive 2023. Cousins thrived in Kevin O’Connell’s offense in Minnesota, which is why Robinson — a fellow Sean McVay disciple who was with O’Connell in Los Angeles — will likely run a similar scheme in Atlanta.
We should see plenty of three-receiver sets (the Rams ran them a league-high 82 percent of the time last season) and play action to create space for playmakers like WR Drake London. Across the past two seasons, Cousins used play action on 28.8 percent of his dropbacks, fourth-most in the NFL, posting the 11th-best play-action passer rating.
On Steelers OC Arthur Smith and QB Russell Wilson: “Can Russell Wilson and/or Fields salvage their careers under Smith?”
I think it’s Wilson’s best chance. If you ask anyone who played quarterback under Smith in Atlanta, they might tell you no. But as OC in Tennessee, Smith’s creativity (and Derrick Henry) helped Ryan Tannehill earn a Pro Bowl nod and win Comeback Player of the Year. A run-heavy scheme could work well in Pittsburgh with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
Like in Atlanta and Tennessee, look for Smith to focus on the run game. Steelers OT Dan Moore confirmed this, saying, “It’s a run-first offense.” As Steelers beat reporter Mark Kaboly noted after the first week of OTAs, “play-action is going to be a significant part of the offense.” In Seattle, Wilson thrived in run-first offenses.
New-Look Offseason: NFLPA proposal is ‘terrible’
The Athletic’s Jeff Howe and beat reporters surveyed NFL players, coaches and execs for their perspective on reshaping the offseason schedule by starting the offseason program in late June or July instead of April. “It’s terrible,” said one NFL assistant coach.
Former GM Randy Mueller is also skeptical of the NFLPA’s proposal, which would be a return to most of the ’70s, ’80s and early ’90s: “Of course, today’s game is different … offseasons are more important than ever.”
Around the NFL
The 49ers signed TE Logan Thomas, formerly of Washington, to backup George Kittle. Thomas had his best season in 2020, catching 72 passes for 670 yards. He’ll be a strong fantasy option if Kittle misses time.
LB Patrick Queen is settling into his new role with the Steelers, who hope he can solve a position that has long plagued them.
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With a new offensive coordinator and two new quarterbacks, what will the Patriots offense look like? Inspiration will come from Browns HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense, writes Chad Graff.
During Atlanta OTAs in mid-May, TE Kyle Pitts said he finally feels “1,000 percent” physically and called it “amazing.” He also has a “personal vendetta” to prove he has more to give the Falcons.
How are teams preparing for new kickoff rules? Browns beat reporter Zac Jackson explores how special teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone plans to adapt.
Jacob’s Picks
📕 Cowboys legend Larry Allen died of unspecified causes yesterday at the early age of 52. Allen’s strength — he could bench 700 pounds — and athleticism helped him become arguably the greatest left guard in NFL history. A first-ballot Hall of Famer, he made the Pro Bowl in 11 of his 14 seasons. (The Athletic)
📺 Allen was unstoppable, as former Giants DE Justin Tuck explained: “It would be like me playing football against my son.” (Instagram)
🎙 Teams in transition. Robert Mays continues the “Buying or Selling” series with Conor Orr of Sports Illustrated as they examine how teams in transition fared this offseason. Insightful discussion about Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers around the eight-minute mark. (The Athletic Football Show)
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