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As Scott Hanson of NFL RedZone pointed out on social media, it’s been 15 weeks since the Super Bowl ended, and in fewer than 15 weeks, the season begins.
Yes, we’re over halfway through the longest 30 weeks of the year. Today’s newsletter includes:
- 💥 Potential 2024 breakouts
- 💰 Urgency on Nico Collins’ deal
- 📈 Fastest-rising position $$$
- 🔢 Revisiting draft rankings
Breakout Candidates: Who takes the next step?
Yes, it’s the NFL offseason, the time when everyone can be optimistic, even Panthers fans. But sometimes, there’s valid reason to hope. Here’s what we’re hearing during OTAs about four players who could soon step up:
1. Lions WR Jameson Williams: The No. 12 pick in 2022, Williams has had a career short on praise and long on problems. Still only 23, he could live up to his draft expectations this season.
As Colton Pouncy wrote, that’s why these words from Dan Campbell carry weight: “If you said give me one player who’s been the most improved from start to finish in that time, Jamo would be that guy right now.”
With Josh Reynolds now in Denver, Williams is the de facto WR2 in Detroit and expected to start. This could open up the underneath for players like Amon-Ra St. Brown, as Williams’ 15.83 air yards per target ranked sixth in 2023 among qualifying receivers (per TruMedia), just ahead of our next player.
2. Packers WR Christian Watson: I asked beat reporter Matt Schneidman about what’s stood out most during the team’s OTAs. Here’s Matt’s answer:
“Find a wooden surface and knock on it if you’re a Packer fan, but Christian Watson and the team might have finally figured out how to keep his hamstrings healthy.
“The third-year receiver has been plagued by hamstring injuries through his first two seasons and recently visited a specialist in Madison, Wisc. to dive deeper into the problem. They discovered Watson’s right leg was significantly weaker than his left, so a plan has been developed to bring them closer to equilibrium. If that helps Watson stay on the field, the Packers might have their closest thing to a true No. 1 wide receiver.”
Watson, who just turned 25, hopes to join other second-round wide receivers who have flourished in Green Bay, including Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings and Randall Cobb. Last season, Watson’s 2.68 yards per route run against man coverage ranked 13th among receivers, just behind Puka Nacua.
3. Colts QB Anthony Richardson: Are we more optimistic about the sophomore than we should be?
The No. 4 pick in 2023 was healthy for just two full games as a rookie. In those games, the Colts went 0-2 while his completion percentage was a combined 56.4 percent — which would’ve ranked 54th, between Tyler Huntley and Trevor Siemian.
But entering year two, there are plenty of reasons for optimism: (1) Richardson played those two games without Jonathan Taylor, (2) both he and Taylor are healthy, (3) Richardson has “become a lot more comfortable in the offense” and (4) the Colts added WR Adonai Mitchell, whose Relative Athletic Score tied for third out of 3,402 wide receiver prospects dating back to 1987.
Bonus: The 6-4, 244-pound QB will be behind PFF’s third-ranked offensive line in a Shane Steichen offense.
4. Titans QB Will Levis: While PFF’s lowest-ranked offensive line of 2023 remains a question mark, Tennessee is counting on Levis to improve on his 37th-ranked passer rating, 29th-ranked EPA and 58.4 completion percentage (53rd among quarterbacks). With this offseason’s haul, the Titans gave him a good chance.
Levis turns 25 this summer, while newly signed Calvin Ridley is 29, DeAndre Hopkins is 31 and Tyler Boyd is 29. Their experience should help, and Ridley and Hopkins are still above-average players, ranking 13th and 22nd among receivers in expected points added per target last year. Boyd should resume the slot role he played in Cincinnati.
New Titans HC Brian Callahan will also bring his learnings from the Bengals, where he served as offensive coordinator and was an important part of developing the system around Joe Burrow. Callahan believes in Levis.
Now, over to Dianna, whom I promised I’d link this video of Chase Daniel.
What Dianna’s Hearing: Houston next to spend big on WR?
The Texans are hoping to get Nico Collins’ contract extension done sooner rather than later. With the wide receiver market rising with every new deal, I had one NFL general manager say to me Sunday, “You don’t want to be the last one standing when the music stops.”
A prototypical receiver at 6-4, 215 pounds, Collins is coming off a career season in which he recorded 1,297 yards on 80 catches and eight touchdowns. He became the fourth player in Texans history to reach 1,000 receiving yards — joining impressive company with Brandin Cooks, DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson.
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The 25-year-old’s first shot at free agency is coming up next year, but don’t be surprised if Houston gets a deal done before that music stops.
Back to you, Jacob.
Fastest-Growing Contracts: Changing of the guard
Inspired by one line in Randy Mueller’s article on wide receivers last week, I wanted to take a closer look at player salaries, the cap and their growth. Here’s what Randy wrote:
“Ten years ago, the NFL’s top-paid wide receivers made about $16 million annually, equaling about 12 percent of the $133 million cap. Today, A.J. Brown leads the way at $32 million annually on a cap of $255 million. That’s still just 12.5 percent of the cap.”
Last week, we reviewed exploding quarterback salaries and found that they are dramatically outpacing the salary cap rise: From 2018 to 2023, the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback saw their APY increase a total of 64 percent, while the NFL’s salary cap increased just 26.5 percent.
But how have quarterback salaries grown when compared to each other position over the past 10 years? (Hint: They are not the fastest-growing position).
I ran the numbers for us, bearing in mind that the NFL salary cap has grown 92 percent since 2014. Remember, this is based on the player with the highest average annual salary at each position:
There are a few surprises, none bigger than the salary of the top inside linebacker rising faster than the salary cap. From Patrick Willis’ $10 million APY in 2014 to Roquan Smith’s current pay of $20 million, we’ve seen a 100 percent increase in the top-end salary despite that position being regularly snubbed in the draft (just one drafted in the first two rounds in 2024).
Given the common narrative (and Zoom calls), it’s not surprising to see running backs at the lowest mark, but were you expecting to see cornerback growth so low? After we saw many veteran safeties cut this offseason, that would’ve been my candidate for second-lowest growth. Receiver growth is surprisingly in line with tight ends.
The biggest takeaway: The NFL values the trenches, as defensive tackle and offensive line standouts saw the biggest increases in pay, with the former growing even more quickly than QBs. The only other two positions to outpace the salary cap: edge rusher and inside linebacker.
Top 50 Prospects, Revisited: Rome Odunze’s fix
This morning, The Athletic’s NFL Draft expert Dane Brugler revisited his draft board from August 2023. A few notable insights from Dane on players who went higher than initially projected in the draft:
Titans OT JC Latham: “He wasn’t considered an elite mover for his position and didn’t play left tackle at Alabama, [but] was arguably the strongest player in the entire draft and put promising play on tape at a high-demand position.” August Projection: 10 | Drafted: 7.
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Giants WR Malik Nabers: “In the comments section last summer, I was told I was ‘too high’ on Nabers. In hindsight, I actually was much too low. The Giants drafted a special player.” August Projection: 14 | Drafted: 6.
Chargers OT Joe Alt: “Throughout the 2023 season, he answered almost all of my concerns, showing instinctive recovery and finish to match his physical talent. Alt’s selection in the top five was warranted.” August Projection: 16 | Drafted: 5.
Bears WR Rome Odunze: “He really struggled with contested balls on the 2022 film, which was the main reason I didn’t rank him higher in my initial top 50. He was outstanding finishing through contact this past season, however, turning a weakness into a strength and becoming a legitimate top-10 prospect.” August Projection: 45 | Drafted: 9.
Around the NFL
Despite being in the same high school recruiting class as Justin Fields, Michael Penix Jr. is beginning his NFL journey three years later. Josh Kendall explains why, and how adversity in college has prepared Penix for his situation in Atlanta.
WR Cedric Tillman is one of six players to watch at Browns OTAs, where the team is following a rehab plan with Deshaun Watson throwing in every other practice.
Where do the rookies fit in Detroit? Whether No. 24 pick Terrion Arnold takes the field with the starters in Week 1 is entirely up to him, writes Colton Pouncy.
How long should the Patriots wait before making Drake Maye their starter? Chad Graff explores the pros and cons of each option.
Yesterday, Larry Holder reviewed the AFC wide receiver groups — it’s a can’t-miss article for anyone who plays fantasy football.
Commanders kicker Brandon McManus was accused of sexually assaulting two women on a team flight while he was with the Jaguars. A spokesman for the Commanders told The Athletic: “We take allegations of this nature very seriously and are looking into the matter.”
Jacob’s Picks
📕 College to the pros: a trend for NFL coordinators? Ted Nguyen explores the surge of new coordinators hired from the college ranks this offseason — Buccaneers OC Liam Coen, Chargers DC Jesse Minter, Packers DC Jeff Hafley and Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb — and explains why it’s likely more an anomaly than a trend. (The Athletic)
🎙 Bills GM Brandon Beane joined Robert Mays to discuss what Buffalo’s front office has been trying to achieve in an eventful offseason. (The Athletic Football Show)
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