Teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears (yes, the Chicago Bears) will walk into the 2024 regular season boasting some of the deepest, most effective wide receiver groups in the NFL.
Then there are teams like the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants, which will be turning to rookies to emerge quickly as primary targets and help propel struggling offenses.
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I went down a rabbit hole to examine the state of the wide receiver position for each team heading into the 2024 season. This post covers the NFC. We hit the AFC on Monday.
Here’s a glimpse at the advanced metrics from 2023 (via TruMedia and Sports Info Solutions) I sorted through in this study, using these categories:
- Expected Points Added per target
- EPA per reception
- Catchable-pass percentage
- Overall reception percentage
(Rankings in parenthesis. There were 59 qualified WRs with 75 or more targets and 35 qualified WRs with 40 to 74 targets.)
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NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.54 (3) | 1.1 (28) | 90.0 (3) | 74.6 (4) | |
0.45 (10) | 1.3 (9) | 85.7 (16) | 66.7 (26) |
40-74 targets
N/A
The question here is more about how much the Cowboys will have to pay CeeDee Lamb than anything having to do with production. You can make a very viable case that Lamb is the best wide receiver in the league.
Brandin Cooks has never fully landed as a No. 1 receiver throughout his NFL merry-go-round tour — and yet he’s managed to fill up a stat line everywhere he’s played. There’s no arguing that with the Cowboys either, as he’s been quite good as a sidekick to Lamb.
The No. 3 wideout role seems wide open for Jalen Tolbert to take with Michael Gallup in Las Vegas. Tolbert picked up 38 targets last season with 0.09 EPA per target and 0.9 EPA per reception. Also, in a very limited sample (18 targets), KaVontae Turpin yielded potent 0.74 EPA-per-target and 1.5 EPA-per-reception rates.
New York Giants
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.25 (34) | 0.6 (58) | 89.6 (4) | 77.9 (1) | |
0.35 (19) | 1.1 (20) | 79.4 (49) | 63.3 (34) |
40-74 targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.20 (32) | 0.2 (35) | 91.9 (4) | 69.4 (4) | |
0.04 (21) | 1.0 (18) | 79.3 (20) | 57.5 (21) |
This group needs LSU’s Malik Nabers. No doubt. Now, can Daniel Jones (or any other quarterback on the roster) take advantage of Nabers’ presence?
Wan’Dale Robinson’s extreme ranking differences — first in reception percentage, second to last in EPA per reception — just displayed how anemic the passing game became last season. At least there’s a positive in there. Darius Slayton still managed some good production, despite not having the best luck in catchable-pass percentage. And Jalin Hyatt should etch out more playing time in Year 2.
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Allen Robinson joined his fellow Robinson with some extreme rates on both sides of the charts. The elder Robinson moved on after one year in Pittsburgh, the Giants being his fourth team in four seasons.
Philadelphia Eagles
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.34 (20) | 0.9 (44) | 84.4 (30) | 71.7 (8) | |
0.38 (16) | 1.1 (27) | 85.5 (18) | 67.5 (21) |
40-74 targets
N/A
Even following last year’s collapse, the Eagles can at least take solace in possessing one of the league’s top receiving duos: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
There’s a lot of green within the charts for both players. Brown produced the lowest drop percentage of his career, ranking fifth best in the NFL (2.6 percent rate on 158 targets). Smith’s EPA-per-reception rate, however, was the lowest of his three seasons in Philly.
The Eagles had to be caught flatfooted when veteran DeVante Parker retired two months after signing. That will leave Parris Campbell as the clear No. 3 wideout heading into training camp. Campbell saw his highest usage in 2022 while with the Colts, yet he only yielded -0.06 EPA per target and 0.7 EPA per reception.
Washington Commanders
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.09 (50) | 1.0 (31) | 82.3 (38) | 60.8 (42) | |
-0.16 (58) | 1.0 (29) | 80.3 (44) | 59.8 (44) |
40-74 targets
N/A
Given how low their EPA-per-target rates panned out in 2023, kudos to Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson for amassing average EPA-per-reception rates. There has to be reason for optimism all of their numbers will improve with Jayden Daniels at QB, even as a rookie, since accuracy was one of the No. 2 pick’s calling cards.
The rest of the group seems murky — veterans Olamide Zaccheaus and Jamison Crowder, along with Dyami Brown. Washington also snagged Rice’s Luke McCaffrey in Round 3 of this year’s draft.
Zaccheaus might be one to watch. The sixth-year receiver comes to the Commanders with career 0.35 EPA-per-target and 1.2 EPA-per-reception rates from his time with Atlanta and Philadelphia.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.42 (12) | 1.0 (38) | 85.0 (21) | 71.1 (10) | |
0.50 (5) | 1.2 (18) | 88.9 (7) | 69.6 (12) |
40-74 targets
N/A
No receiving corps improved more in a hurry than the Bears’ this offseason.
Even at 32, Keenan Allen remains one of the better receivers in the NFL. Both of Allen’s EPA rates are the best we’ve witnessed from him since the 2019 season. And even with QB play all over the map, DJ Moore uncorked one of the best overall seasons among all wideouts last year. Just those two playing together raised eyebrows, in a complimentary way.
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Then Washington’s Rome Odunze fell to the Bears at No. 9 in this year’s draft. Might as well tape your eyebrows in that upright position.
I can’t recall a Bears offense better set up for success at wide receiver than what Caleb Williams has heading into 2024.
Detroit Lions
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.40 (14) | 1.0 (32) | 90.2 (2) | 72.6 (6) |
40-74 targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.65 (2) | 1.0 (16) | 89.7 (5) | 79.5 (2) | |
0.35 (8) | 1.3 (9) | 80.0 (16) | 57.1 (23) |
Elite production equals elite contract — it was a simple equation for Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions’ top receiver has played with the same level of consistency during his first three seasons. It occurred even before Detroit became one of the better teams in the league and continued once teams realized St. Brown’s ability.
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With Josh Reynolds off to Denver, 2022 first-rounder Jameson Williams should be expected to tally a reception rate a little closer to his other Lions running mates. There’s a lot to like from Kalif Raymond, in a smaller sample. Donovan Peoples-Jones also could provide more of a spark this year after being traded to Detroit midseason last year. He carries rates of 0.29 EPA per target and 1.2 EPA per reception for his career.
One aspect not to be ignored here: Jared Goff sure unleashes a ton of catchable passes.
Green Bay Packers
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.28 (30) | 1.0 (36) | 84.2 (31) | 68.1 (19) | |
0.21 (39) | 1.1 (23) | 80.8 (43) | 61.5 (40) |
40-74 targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.52 (3) | 1.3 (7) | 83.0 (12) | 67.2 (6) | |
0.07 (20) | 1.4 (4) | 75.7 (25) | 52.8 (27) |
Safe to say there is no shortage of young, talented receivers for Jordan Love to choose from in the near future. The main aspect in which Love improved over the back half of last season was his completion percentage. So, I would expect the catchable-pass percentages for his receivers to increase.
In 2022, Christian Watson became the breakout player for Green Bay. Last season, Jayden Reed claimed that distinction as Watson missed nearly half the season with injuries. That said, Watson produced with the ball in his hands, and Dontayvion Wicks thrived on limited targets (58).
There may be no clear-cut No. 1 receiver yet. Maybe that’s a good thing, though, with reliability seemingly across the board … when everyone’s healthy.
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Minnesota Vikings
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.45 (8) | 1.2 (11) | 88.3 (8) | 67.3 (23) | |
0.28 (29) | 1.1 (21) | 87.5 (11) | 64.2 (30) |
40-74 targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.03 (23) | 0.8 (29) | 87.9 (6) | 65.9 (7) |
What happens when you have arguably the best wide receiver in the league but you’re not sure if your quarterbacks can get him the ball? The Vikings won’t answer that since they believe Sam Darnold and/or 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy can fully utilize Justin Jefferson, but I’ll need to see it to believe it.
Jefferson still managed more than 1,000 receiving yards last season, despite missing seven games with an injury and garnering limited snaps in an eighth game. Jordan Addison’s emergence allowed the Vikings to feel comfortable letting K.J. Osborn walk in free agency. Plus, Brandon Powell exuded some reliability in a limited role.
Will the Vikings’ QBs present the same catchable-pass percentages without Kirk Cousins? Not sure about McCarthy, but Darnold ranked near the top of the league in EPA per dropback and catchable-pass percentage during his time as Panthers starter in 2022.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.09 (49) | 1.0 (33) | 85.2 (20) | 63.3 (33) |
40-74 targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.06 (27) | 0.4 (34) | 80.0 (18) | 63.5 (8) | |
-0.09 (28) | 1.0 (15) | 73.8 (29) | 51.7 (29) |
Speaking of Cousins, he should bring far more consistency in the passing game, even while 2024 first-rounder Michael Penix Jr. stares over his shoulder. And all three of the Falcons’ receivers could use someone to help lift their production.
Drake London came up with better results than his EPA per target would indicate, which should be a plus in 2024. Former Bears speedster Darnell Mooney could be the game-breaker Atlanta lacked the last couple of seasons. Former Cardinals speedster Rondale Moore could be the wild card the Falcons might use to get creative.
The Falcons possess the offensive pieces in every position group to score with far more regularity. Now, about that quarterback decision …
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Carolina Panthers
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.48 (6) | 0.9 (43) | 89.6 (5) | 75.2 (3) | |
0.30 (26) | 1.2 (15) | 83.6 (36) | 58.6 (46) | |
-0.37 (59) | 0.4 (59) | 79.6 (48) | 50.6 (58) |
40-74 targets
None
Adam Thielen should feel a sense of pride for a yeoman’s effort with such high rates in three of the four categories used in this study. If only his EPA per reception had followed suit, Carolina might have won a couple more games and ruined the Bears’ chances at Williams.
As Thielen’s season seemed all for naught, 2023 second-rounder Jonathan Mingo’s year barely got off the ground with league-worst marks in both EPA categories and the second-worst rate in reception percentage. Maybe 2024 first-rounder Xavier Legette will have better luck his rookie season.
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Adding a veteran piece like Diontae Johnson can’t hurt Carolina’s chances of offensive improvement, but the former Steelers wideout typically has been a player with high volume and empty stats (0.7 EPA-per-reception rate each season from 2020 through 2022). Last year, he yielded easily his best EPA per reception, but it came while he saw just 87 targets.
New Orleans Saints
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.30 (23) | 1.1 (19) | 79.8 (46) | 62.6 (37) | |
0.13 (45) | 1.1 (25) | 83.6 (35) | 60.5 (43) |
40-74 targets
N/A
Good things happen when either Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed possess the football — both young wideouts compiled a healthy EPA-per-reception rate. On the flip side, their below-average catchable-pass and reception rates played a contributing role in the Saints’ sporadic 2023 offense. The Saints need to find a way to get either or both players the ball more this season.
After those two, it’s anyone’s guess how the receiving corps will shake out. The Saints added veterans Cedrick Wilson Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown and Stanley Morgan Jr. this offseason, and 2023 sixth-round pick A.T. Perry came on strong late last year.
The biggest positive came with Derek Carr, in that he grew more comfortable toward the end of 2023, resulting in good year-end marks for passer rating (97.7) and catchable-pass percentage (88.0).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.30 (25) | 1.1 (26) | 87.4 (12) | 62.4 (38) | |
0.40 (15) | 1.5 (2) | 76.7 (55) | 58.5 (48) |
40-74 targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.13 (30) | 0.6 (33) | 72.2 (32) | 57.4 (22) |
You wouldn’t imagine Mike Evans being one of those feast-or-famine receivers. His numbers might indicate as much, though, given his elite EPA per reception and fifth-worst catchable-pass percentage. The fact he tallied 136 targets and still produced such a high EPA rate should indicate just how good Evans was in 2023 with Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball.
The roles between Evans and Chris Godwin were never more distinct than last season, given the difference in catchable-pass percentages for each player. Godwin served more as a safety blanket; Evans provided the pop.
Trey Palmer should continue as the No. 3 option, but the Bucs probably would hope for improved rates across the board from him. Tampa Bay also drafted Washington’s Jalen McMillan in Round 3 last month.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
75-plus targets
N/A
40-74 targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.38 (6) | 1.2 (10) | 84.4 (9) | 63.3 (9) | |
0.13 (16) | 0.8 (28) | 82.8 (13) | 60.0 (15) | |
-0.10 (29) | 0.7 (30) | 70.8 (33) | 53.1 (26) |
There’s little question about the changing of the WR guard for the Cardinals, considering there’s no one left on the roster who garnered at least 75 targets last season. Gone are Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore. So, Marvin Harrison Jr., c’mon down!
Michael Wilson played well at times, and Arizona will be hoping the 2023 third-round pick can maintain his rates while his snap volume likely increases. Greg Dortch also seems primed for an elevated role.
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Arizona added Zay Jones after the draft, and he’ll be the most experienced wideout of the group. He missed half of last season with injuries, though, and his rates weren’t good (hard to blame him, though, given such a low catchable-pass percentage).
Los Angeles Rams
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.43 (11) | 1.2 (17) | 82.0 (39) | 66.5 (27) | |
0.12 (46) | 1.1 (24) | 85.5 (19) | 62.8 (35) |
40-74 targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.16 (14) | 1.1 (14) | 81.3 (14) | 58.2 (19) |
How will Puka Nacua top his superb Year 1? That might be a tall order. But imagine if his catchable-pass and reception percentages increased by, say, three percent each? Doesn’t sound like much, but even that much movement could be a difference maker.
Cooper Kupp’s traditional numbers likely won’t return to where we saw them in 2021, when he was NFL Offensive Player of the Year. He tallied fewer targets last year in 12 games than he amassed in only nine games in 2022. A full, healthy season certainly would bring more looks from Matthew Stafford, though, and Kupp can be productive with the ball in his hands given the range in EPA per target and EPA per reception.
The rest of the Rams’ receiving hierarchy appears pretty set, with Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell figuring into notable playing time. Robinson missed the threshold for this study by one target. That said, he definitely deserves mention, with rates of 0.49 EPA per target and 1.3 EPA per reception.
San Francisco 49ers
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.71 (1) | 1.5 (3) | 89.3 (6) | 72.1 (7) | |
0.45 (9) | 1.2 (12) | 85.7 (15) | 67.4 (22) |
40-74 targets
N/A
Considering Brock Purdy wears the EPA crown, none of the statistics for Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel should make you fall out your chair. No combo of quarterback and pass catchers seemed more at ease with each other than Purdy, Aiyuk and Samuel. (Obviously, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle factor in, as well). I can’t imagine either Aiyuk or Samuel being dealt at this point, despite the buzz that followed each player this offseason.
Adding Ricky Pearsall as a 2024 first-round pick could pave the way out of town eventually for one of the aforementioned players. You’d imagine Jauan Jennings will stay put as a restricted free agent, and his rates are top-notch for 31 targets: 0.31 EPA per target and 1.3 EPA per reception.
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Seattle Seahawks
75-plus targets
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Catchable% | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.17 (42) | 0.8 (48) | 84.0 (32) | 67.7 (20) | |
0.28 (27) | 1.0 (34) | 84.8 (26) | 64.2 (31) | |
0.30 (24) | 1.3 (6) | 78.6 (52) | 55.0 (54) |
40-74 targets
N/A
DK Metcalf caught his second fewest passes in a season in 2023. He also nearly matched the best EPA-per-reception rate of his career. Is that good? In one sense, yes. In another, no. His drop percentage rose from 3.6 percent in 2022 to 6.3 percent in 2023, on 22 fewer targets. Metcalf and the Bucs’ Evans essentially live the same on-field existence.
The Seahawks probably won’t have much drama in terms of wideout depth chart, with Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba rounding out the top three. I’m wondering if the Seahawks open up more opportunities for bigger plays for Smith-Njigba in 2024, given he only averaged 10.0 yards per reception (54th).
Seattle also limited Lockett’s explosive-play potential — he averaged 11.3 yards per reception last season. It makes sense why the numbers for Lockett and Smith-Njigba appear to be very similar.
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(Top photos of Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown: Brandon Sloter / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Cooper Neill / Getty Images; Jorge Lemus / NurPhoto via Getty Images)
