Excitement runs through the six NFL teams that chose quarterbacks among the first 12 picks in the 2024 draft.
How excited should these teams actually be?
The answer might depend on the order in which these quarterbacks were selected. History says the Chicago Bears, who used the first pick on USC’s Caleb Williams, are twice as likely as the others to one day re-sign their first-round QB to a multiyear extension — one way to determine which selections were successful (or at least not abject failures).
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Williams, Jayden Daniels (No. 2 to the Washington Commanders), Drake Maye (No. 3 to the New England Patriots), Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8 to the Atlanta Falcons), J.J. McCarthy (No. 10 to the Minnesota Vikings) and Bo Nix (No. 12 to the Denver Broncos) are just starting out. They could follow the trends or buck them for reasons specific to them and their situations. Until then, teams are playing the percentages.
This analysis grew from a question an NFL executive raised after the Patriots used the third pick to select the third quarterback in the class (Maye) instead of trading the pick for a slew of assets (and possibly still drafting a different quarterback later in the first round).
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“You are taking the third quarterback out of six, and we know (roughly) half are going to fail,” the exec said. “Which one did I just get?”
| QB Order | Extension Rate |
|---|---|
1st drafted | 57% (16/28) |
2nd drafted | 35% (8/23) |
3rd drafted | 31% (5/16) |
4th drafted | 14% (1/7) |
5th drafted | 33% (1/3) |
6th drafted | N/A (0/0) |
Totals | 40% (31/77) |
The table above shows how frequently first-round quarterbacks signed multiyear extensions with their original teams over three decades, based on whether the quarterback was the first, second, third, fourth or fifth player at the position selected that year. The re-sign rate was 57 percent for the first quarterback selected (16 of 28) in a given year and 31 percent (15 of 49) for the others.
The data reflects 77 quarterbacks selected in the first round from 1993 (Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer) through 2022 (Kenny Pickett). This 30-draft period spans the birth of NFL free agency to the most recent class of quarterbacks eligible for contract extensions. It excludes Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence, who have not yet signed long-term extensions but could still do so (the extension Love signed last spring was a placeholder buying time for him to succeed Aaron Rodgers; he’ll likely sign a true extension soon).
1. Caleb Williams comps: 57 percent re-sign rate
The first quarterback selected in each class’ first round from 1993 to 2022 re-signed with his team 16 times in 28 chances (57 percent). The 28 quarterbacks are listed below, with No. 1 overall choices in italics. Extensions ranged from dubious (Blake Bortles) to questionable (Kyler Murray) to affirming (Peyton Manning). You might adjust the “hit” rate downward according to your own scale.
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Re-signed (16): Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Blake Bortles, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Chad Pennington, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair, Drew Bledsoe
Not re-signed (12): Kenny Pickett, Baker Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, Jameis Winston, EJ Manuel, Sam Bradford, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, David Carr, Tim Couch, Jim Druckenmiller, Heath Shuler
The 57 percent re-sign rate for these quarterbacks includes 12 re-signs in 18 chances (67 percent) when the quarterback was selected No. 1 overall, compared with four in 10 times when the first quarterback selected was not chosen with the first pick. This could suggest the chances for success improve when there’s something closer to a “consensus” No. 1 overall quarterback, as the case was for the Bears with Williams this year.
Lawrence appears likely to join the group of re-signings, perhaps as soon as this offseason.
2. Jayden Daniels comps: 35 percent re-sign rate
The second quarterback in each class’ first round re-signed with his team eight times in 23 chances (35 percent). That’s a steep drop in re-sign rate from the first to the second quarterback, even with dubious extensions for Daniel Jones and Mark Sanchez propping up the numbers.
The rate was about the same when the second quarterback in a class was chosen No. 2 overall, as Daniels was by Washington (two of seven re-signed in that case, with one of the re-signings, Carson Wentz, becoming regrettable as his career trajectory suddenly tanked). Italics below identify the seven quarterbacks chosen second overall.
Re-signed (8): Daniel Jones, Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb
Not re-signed (15): Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, Marcus Mariota, Johnny Manziel, Robert Griffin III, Jake Locker, Tim Tebow, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Byron Leftwich, Joey Harrington, Ryan Leaf, Kerry Collins, Trent Dilfer, Rick Mirer
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Tagovailoa would join the re-sign list if the Dolphins extend his contract this offseason, as they have said they hope to do.
3. Drake Maye comps: 31 percent re-sign rate
Would you use a first-round pick for the third quarterback in a given draft class if there were a 25 percent shot at landing Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, pre-Cleveland Deshaun Watson or Ben Roethlisberger?
You might, until peeking over the edge of the cliff and seeing some of the other first-round choices who were the third quarterbacks selected in their classes. The group includes Paxton Lynch, one of two first-round quarterbacks over this 30-draft period to never be named his team’s full-time starter (Jim Druckenmiller was the other).
Maye, like Trey Lance and Akili Smith, was chosen No. 3 overall after the two teams picking earlier also selected quarterbacks. The Patriots are betting he’ll be much more productive than those quarterbacks.
Jay Cutler, traded from Denver to Chicago while still on his rookie contract, stands out from the group of third quarterbacks not re-signed by their original teams. He outperformed the quarterbacks selected ahead of him in 2006 (Vince Young, Matt Leinart).
Re-signed (5): Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger
Not re-signed (11): Trey Lance, Dwayne Haskins, Paxton Lynch, Teddy Bridgewater, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell, Kyle Boller, Patrick Ramsey, Akili Smith
4. Michael Penix Jr. comps: 14 percent re-sign rate
Four of the seven qualifying quarterbacks in this bucket were selected between No. 10 and No. 12, not far from the eighth slot, which is where the Atlanta Falcons drafted Penix. Those four included Josh Rosen, Justin Fields and Christian Ponder, who did not succeed, along with Daunte Culpepper, who briefly became a star before injuries derailed his career.
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The Falcons cited the Green Bay Packers’ decision to draft Love in 2020, when Aaron Rodgers was still their starter, as precedent for selecting Penix after signing Kirk Cousins this offseason. Though Green Bay used a later pick (No. 26) for Love than Atlanta used for Penix (No. 8), there is one similarity: Penix and Love were the fourth quarterbacks selected in their draft classes. Love was part of a strong 2020 first round featuring Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert as top-six picks.
Love became the Packers’ starter in his fourth season. Rodgers is the only other first-round pick since 1993 to sit three seasons before becoming the starter. Steve McNair, Chad Pennington and Philip Rivers are the only other first-rounders during that period to sit more than two seasons.
Nearly 75 percent of first-round quarterbacks since 1993 were named the starter in their first season. Another 18 percent were named the starter in their second season. Carrying first-round quarterbacks on the bench became easier to justify in 2011 when the NFL and its players agreed upon a wage scale suppressing salaries for early draft picks.
Re-signed: Daunte Culpepper
Not re-signed: Justin Fields, Josh Rosen, Brandon Weeden, Christian Ponder, J.P. Losman, Rex Grossman
5. J.J. McCarthy comps: 33 percent re-sign rate
There are too few comps for the percentage to mean much here, although Cade McNown (12th pick in 1999) and Mac Jones (15th pick in 2021) were selected in the same general range as where the Vikings selected McCarthy (10th).
McCarthy and Lamar Jackson are dissimilar as talents, but similar in that evaluators had a tougher time projecting how they would perform in the NFL. Evaluators weren’t sure whether teams would be willing or even able to adapt their offenses to maximize Jackson’s unusual skills. For McCarthy, the challenge was projecting how his performance in a conservative, run-heavy college offense will translate to the pass-oriented NFL ranks. Both quarterbacks (and especially Jackson) might have been drafted earlier if evaluators could have answered those questions more definitively before the draft.
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Re-signed: Lamar Jackson
Not re-signed: Mac Jones, Cade McNown
6. Bo Nix comps: N/A
The 2024 draft set a record with six quarterbacks selected in the first 12 picks, so there aren’t great comps for Nix. Before this year, the sixth quarterback selected in a class had never been chosen earlier than 27th (Dan Marino in 1983). Otherwise, the earliest picks used for the sixth quarterback in a class went for Dale Samuels (28th in 1953), Don Heinrich (35th in 1952), Colin Kaepernick (36th in 2011), Norm Van Brocklin (37th in 1949) and Sonny Jurgensen (43rd in 1957). That’s pretty good company for Nix.
Still, the sixth quarterback in a draft class was selected 120th on average in NFL Draft history, including 116th on average since 1993. There is no precedent for using the 12th pick for the sixth quarterback.
For Nix, landing with coach Sean Payton in Denver could boost the odds for success, which is what the Broncos were thinking when they made what history sees as a long-shot bet.
Closing thoughts
To round out this analysis, we could study re-sign rates at every position. Quarterbacks offer the most upside. The gap between their cost-controlled rookie deals and the $50 million annual salaries for top veteran quarterbacks creates the potential for surplus value unmatched at other positions. It’s also a position where having a need fuels heightened desperation.
The six teams drafting quarterbacks among the top 12 this year could not resist the allure, even though history says only two or three are likely to sign extensions with their teams, with fewer than that becoming true stars.
I’ll conclude with a table ranking quarterbacks drafted from 1993 to 2018 by Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric across their third through sixth seasons, which should be prime years for production. Capping the list with the 2018 draft allows enough time for all players to reach their sixth seasons. Logos associated with players reflect the teams that drafted them (or acquired them on draft day). Gray shading identifies players signed to extensions by their original teams.
This table shows just how elusive top-tier quarterbacks remain, no matter how early they are drafted or in what order (Rodgers lags on the list because he did not start until his fourth season).
| Rank | QB | Draft (QB#) | Yr 3-6 AV |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2018 (3/5) | 75 | |
2 | 2017 (2/3) | 71 | |
3 | 2004 (2/4) | 67 | |
4 | 1998 (1/2) | 65 | |
5 | 1999 (4/5) | 64 | |
6 | 2008 (1/2) | 62 | |
7 | 2011 (1/4) | 60 | |
7 | 2018 (5/5) | 60 | |
9 | 2009 (1/3) | 55 | |
9 | 1999 (2/5) | 55 | |
11 | 2012 (1/4) | 52 | |
11 | 1995 (1/2) | 52 | |
13 | 2016 (1/3) | 50 | |
13 | 2004 (3/4) | 50 | |
13 | 1993 (1/2) | 50 | |
13 | 2005 (2/3) | 50 | |
17 | 2004 (1/4) | 47 | |
17 | 2001 (1/1) | 47 | |
19 | 2008 (2/2) | 45 | |
20 | 2006 (3/3) | 44 | |
21 | 2018 (1/5) | 43 | |
22 | 2017 (3/3) | 40 | |
22 | 2016 (2/3) | 40 | |
22 | 2012 (3/4) | 40 | |
22 | 2003 (1/4) | 40 | |
26 | 2002 (1/3) | 36 | |
26 | 1994 (2/2) | 36 | |
28 | 2010 (1/2) | 35 | |
28 | 2005 (3/3) | 35 | |
30 | 2015 (1/2) | 34 | |
31 | 2000 (1/1) | 31 | |
32 | 2014 (1/3) | 29 | |
33 | 2015 (2/2) | 27 | |
34 | 2005 (1/3) | 26 | |
34 | 1995 (2/2) | 26 | |
36 | 2009 (3/3) | 25 | |
37 | 2002 (2/3) | 24 | |
38 | 1999 (1/5) | 21 | |
39 | 2009 (2/3) | 20 | |
40 | 2017 (1/3) | 19 | |
41 | 2014 (3/3) | 18 | |
41 | 2006 (1/3) | 18 | |
43 | 2003 (2/4) | 16 | |
43 | 2004 (4/4) | 16 | |
45 | 2018 (2/5) | 15 | |
45 | 1993 (2/2) | 15 | |
45 | 2003 (4/4) | 15 | |
48 | 2012 (2/4) | 10 | |
49 | 2011 (2/4) | 8 | |
50 | 2011 (4/4) | 7 | |
50 | 2003 (3/4) | 7 | |
52 | 2011 (3/4) | 6 | |
53 | 2013 (1/1) | 4 | |
53 | 2002 (3/3) | 4 | |
53 | 2012 (4/4) | 4 | |
56 | 2006 (2/3) | 2 | |
57 | 1998 (2/2) | 1 | |
57 | 2010 (2/2) | 1 | |
57 | 2007 (2/2) | 1 | |
60 | 2018 (4/5) | 0 | |
60 | 1999 (3/5) | 0 | |
60 | 2014 (2/3) | 0 | |
60 | 1999 (5/5) | 0 | |
60 | 2016 (3/3) | 0 | |
60 | 1997 (1/1) | 0 | |
66 | 1994 (1/2) | -1 | |
67 | 2007 (1/2) | -2 |
(Photos of, from left, J.J. McCarthy, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye: Nick Wosika / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images, Michael Reaves / Getty Images, Jonathan Wiggs / The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
