Two of this year’s First-Four purgatory games are between No. 10 seeds, and the first of those higher matchups is Tuesday night, with the Colorado State Rams facing off against the Virginia Cavaliers.
Colorado State was the final at-large bid announced by the selection committee on Sunday night, making it into the field of 68 under the wire. We can’t decide if that’s a good feeling or a bad feeling, but either way, the Rams are our pick to win this matchup. Austin Mock’s prediction model gives them a slightly better chance than Virginia of making it through all the way to the second round, too.
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The winner of this First Four game will play No. 7 Texas on Friday for the first round.
Read on for our breakdown of both teams, odds for the matchup and details on how to watch. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice.
Colorado State can hang — but how long?
Despite point guard Isaiah Stevens’ stellar stewardship, Colorado State slumped over the season’s final month.
The good: Point guard Isaiah Stevens is one of the finest floor generals west of the Mississippi. His smooth orchestrations explain why CSU slots inside the top five nationally in assists-to-field-goals made. The Rams rarely turn the ball over, convert oodles of around-the-rim hoops (57.6 percent, top 10 in the country) and cash in often on free throws (75.4 percent). Alongside Stevens, fellow starters Joel Scott, Josiah Strong, Patrick Cartier and Nique Clifford kick in scoring contributions. On defense over their final 10 regular-season games, the Rams ranked inside the top 14 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The bad: Though decent on the defensive side, the Rams rarely generate second-chance opportunities, evidenced by their No. 327 ranking in offensive rebounding in the regular season. They netted only 29.9 percent from distance over the final six weeks of the regular season. Cartier and Clifford, in particular, need to rediscover their once-reliable outside strokes.
With a non-conference win on a neutral court against high-seeded Creighton and five additional triumphs vs. Quad 1 competition, the Rams have shown they can hang. Guard play is nearly everything in tournament play, and with Stevens on the roster, CSU is capable of ousting a team or three. But a formidable frontline on the opponent’s side may take them down. Given their tough draw, the latter is most likely.
—Brad Evans
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Virginia is good on defense but lacks firepower
Let’s start with the good. The Cavaliers are third in scoring defense (59.5 points per game) and ended the regular season in the top 10 of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings for the first time since 2019-20, the year after their national championship run. Reese Beekman is the veteran heartbeat of the team, and rangy sophomore Ryan Dunn is one of the best shot-blockers in the country.
On the downside, the Cavaliers play at a pace that makes runaway wins a rarity and early deficits a daunting proposition. And even taking into account that slow pace, they have turned in several stinkers down the stretch against the ACC’s best (and against rival Virginia Tech). Is it bad to fail to crack 50 points in three of your final five regular-season games? For as solid of a player as Beekman is, I don’t love his chances of responding in kind if an opponent’s best player goes on a second-half heater.
For long stretches of this season, the ‘Hoos have looked like a caricature of the team their biggest critics make them out to be every year. They largely held serve against inferior teams during the regular season, which would bode well against any would-be Cinderellas, but their recent stumbles have left them as the lower-seeded team looking to catch someone by surprise this March.
—Eric Single
How to watch Colorado State vs. Virginia
What: Midwest Region, First Four
Tipoff time: 9:10 p.m. ET Tuesday
TV: TruTV
Location: Dayton, Ohio
Colorado State vs. Virginia odds
Expert picks
UVA to cover the spread. As we said above, we think the Rams can win this game. But we like the money better on picking UVA against the spread. The Rams started the season 13-1 with wins against Creighton, Colorado and New Mexico, but were up and down in Mountain West play. They sneaked into the tournament for the second time in three years but haven’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2013. CSU is 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games.
Model projection: Colorado State by 0.5, total 120.1
See Austin Mock’s best futures bets.
Players to watch
Colorado State
- Isaiah Stevens, graduate guard, first-team All-MWC
- Nique Clifford, senior guard, third team All-MWC
Virginia
- Reece Beekman, senior guard, ACC Defensive Player of the Year, second-team All-ACC, All-ACC defensive team
- Ryan Dunn, sophomore guard, All-ACC defensive team
More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage
- Bracket prep: Capsule previews for all 68 teams with strengths, weaknesses, outlook and more
- Bracket Breakers choose 10 most likely first-round upsets
(Photo of Isaiah Stevens: Aaron Ontiveroz / MediaNews Group / The Denver Post via Getty Images)