If you’re looking for chaos in this year’s bracket, start in the Midwest. This region offers a host of underdogs who could not only win a first-round game but also advance to the tournament’s Sweet 16.
Below, you’ll find a game-by-game look at all the first-round matchups with Bracket-breaker implications in the Midwest; we will examine the other three regions in the coming days and every potential second-round matchup. To qualify as a Bracket Breaker game, opponents need to be separated by at least five seeds (which is why we don’t cover the 8/9 or 7/10 games). Our analysis adjusts teams’ basic strengths according to how closely they statistically resemble favorites and underdogs from past tournaments and, where appropriate, by style matchups. We can’t tell you how to bet — that depends on how richly your pool rewards deep upsets and your risk tolerance. But if you’re interested in how our model works, check out this piece.
Advertisement
And now, on to the upsets!
Follow live coverage of South Carolina, NC State and Iowa, UConn in women’s Final Four today
More Bracket Breakers: Midwest Region Preview | West Region Preview | South Region Preview | East Region Preview | Women’s Top 10 Upsets
Odds are from BetMGM. For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast. For all our March Madness coverage, check out our content hub.
No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks
Upset Chance: 43.3 percent
Spread: South Carolina favored by 1.5 points
Kudos to the Ducks for their Pac-12 championship run. But without it, they wouldn’t have made the NCAA Tournament, and now that they’ve arrived, their statistical profile doesn’t suggest they are any better (or worse) than their top-line numbers. Slingshot pegs Oregon as the No. 58 team in the nation, with no particular overdog or long shot traits to get excited about. But holy smokes, as an opponent seeded five slots higher than Oregon, South Carolina is plastered with red flags.
For starters, the Gamecocks rate just a couple of spots higher than Oregon in our basic power ratings, clocking in at No. 56; our model sees the two teams separated by fewer than 0.12 points per 100 possessions. Of course, Lamont Paris’ crew has had a terrific year and far exceeded expectations. But the Gamecocks aren’t as good as the other 6-seeds in this tournament or as their record would suggest. They are 9-3 in games decided by five or fewer points, and have been the second-luckiest team in the nation this season, according to KenPom.com. Also problematic in the context of the NCAA Tournament: They play at the pace of drying cement, averaging fewer than 63 adjusted possessions per game (ranking 354th). And they take a lot of threes (41 percent of FGA) without hitting them particularly well (shooting 33.5 percent, ranking 199th). Neither of those tendencies provide the kind of safety Goliaths need against underdogs. Finally, in the 10 games most similar to this matchup in our database, the higher seeds won only six times and outscored their opponents by just 8.3 points per 100 possessions. Maybe the most telling example is Xavier’s 11-6 upset of Maryland in 2017.
Advertisement
There’s an old joke that Ronald Reagan once got in a bit of trouble for telling, and while we’ll leave it for you to look it up if you want the details, its punchline was, “The duck wins.” Slingshot isn’t willing to go quite as far as the Gipper. But everything about this game says these teams are pretty evenly matched.
No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
Upset Chance: 30.8 percent
Spread: Gonzaga favored by 6.5 points
We’ve been on the McNeese bandwagon for much of the season, and now Slingshot wants to come along for the ride. It’s rare that you find a team that both dominates a small conference and excels as a Killer; usually those tasks require distinct traits. But McNeese has it all.
Under head coach Will Wade, who knows a thing or two about upsets going back to his days as a VCU assistant under Shaka Smart, the Cowboys are formidable. Led by guard Shahada Wells, averaging just a hair below 18/5/5, the Cowboys are ranked 60th in KenPom’s overall ratings, a remarkable feat for a team from the Southland Conference. They went 17-1 in conference play and rolled to the Southland tourney title, winning both games by double digits.
But the Cowboys’ giant-killing skills are what make them truly special. In typical Wade fashion, they are disruptive defensively, ranking sixth in the nation in turnover percentage (23.1 percent). They amplify that skill by protecting the ball on offense (14.2 percent turnover rate), creating a massive possession edge. They grab offensive rebounds on 32 percent of their misses (79th in the nation) and play very slowly (282nd in adjusted tempo), ideal for engineering an upset.
If that’s not enough, the Cowboys have significant Chameleon potential. That’s what we call teams that play a particular style for much of the season but can change course as the climate demands. In this case, McNeese only takes 33.6 percent of its shots from three-point range. But they make a remarkable 39.4 percent of them, which ranks fourth in the country. So the Cowboys have the potential to increase their variance against a stronger foe, much like Harvard did a decade ago in upsetting New Mexico and Cincinnati in consecutive tournaments. We saw this in one of their few games against a fellow tourney team: McNeese went 10-for-19 from three-point range in a 21-point takedown of UAB back in November.
Advertisement
McNeese might have even better odds of an upset had they not drawn Gonzaga. The Bulldogs quietly do several things our model appreciates in a favorite: They play fast, they hold onto the ball, and they protect themselves from cold shooting by grabbing offensive rebounds on a third of their misses. Graham Ike and Anton Watson are a load to handle inside, as Gonzaga hits 58 percent of its two-point attempts. Expect the Bulldogs to look inside early and often.
But McNeese won’t shy away against Gonzaga’s big frontline. And if the Cowboys dial things up from deep, we might have another classic 12-5 upset on our hands.
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs
Upset Chance: 30.1 percent
Spread: Kansas favored by 7 points
The good news for the Jayhawks is that they’re expecting to get big man Hunter Dickinson back from a shoulder injury for the start of the tournament. From the vantage point of our model, the bad news is virtually everything else. Kansas is a “Generic Giant”— a team that gains a high seed despite not being particularly excellent at rebounding at either end of the floor or at forcing or avoiding turnovers. The Jayhawks shoot very well from inside (54.8 percent, ranking 30th in the NCAA) and protect the rim (allowing opponents to shoot just 45.3 percent on 2-point FGA, ranking 15th). Those are their strengths, and they are impressive. They are also not enough to guarantee that a favorite can withstand either an off-shooting night or a barrage by a hot opponent — even when there’s this wide a difference in seeds. In our database, which stretches back to 2007, Generic Giants, seeded 4th, have lost to 13 seeds in six of 19 games, or 32 percent of the time. All other 4 seeds have suffered upsets in just 18 percent of their contests.
Now, take a look at Samford. We’ve been backing Bucky Ball for months now. And as we’ve written before, that’s not because the Bulldogs are so aggressive and fun to watch (which they are), but because they do everything in their power to build the number and value of their possessions. They force steals on 12.9 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 10th in the country. They launch bombs on 40.9 percent of their field-goal attempts, ranking 89th. They shoot the lights out (56.9 percent eFG percent, ranking 7th). And they hit the offensive boards (30.2 percent OR percent, ranking 128th). Their hustle doesn’t trigger chaos for the sake of chaos. It leads to disruption on defense and spacing on offense. It’s intelligent risk-taking. And when Sharpshooting Killers like Samford meet Generic Giants like Kansas, 30 percent of the results are upsets.
We understand why you might be rolling your eyes. Samford’s strength of schedule ranked a sorry 265th in the country this season, according to Slingshot. And the Jayhawks, whose starters are an average of 3.1 inches taller than the Bulldogs, might just shove the Bulldogs off the court. But our updated model says that even after adjusting for concern about levels of competition, there’s enough danger in this collision for Kansas to be significantly more vulnerable than an average 4 seed – and that doesn’t factor in the injuries to Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. In the 10 games most similar to this matchup, underdogs won four times, including memorable upsets like Florida Gulf Coast over San Diego State in 2013 and Murray State over Marquette in 2019. And the higher seeds outscored their opponents by just 2.7 points per 100 possessions!
Advertisement
No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Akron Zips
Upset Chance: 20.4 percent
Spread: Creighton favored by 12.5 points
When targeting upsets, it’s human nature to start with the underdog. We remember the teams like VCU or Lehigh or Norfolk State that cemented their place in history with one magical night or an unexpectedly deep run But there are two sides to every upset. And often, the driving force is the higher seed’s vulnerability rather than the challenger’s weaponry.
That’s the case with this Creighton/Akron matchup. There’s nothing particularly impressive about the Zips. Their “Killer Sauce” – the part of our model that accounts for a team’s characteristics that typically lead to upsets – is negative. In other words, they are a better team than a Killer. The Zips force turnovers at a below-average rate, only grab an average number of offensive rebounds (despite the presence of Enrique Freeman, the nation’s leading rebounder at 12.9 rpg) and only shoot 32 percent from 3-point range.
But the Bluejays’ style makes them exceptionally vulnerable. They deserve a 3-seed based on the power ratings section of our model, grading out better than Marquette, Kentucky and Illinois. However, their “Giant Sauce,” which reflects how much they embody the characteristics of historically safe or vulnerable Giants, knocks them down significantly.
Why? We stress every March that the safest favorites have other qualities that can save them on a bad shooting night. Typically, those areas help build extra possessions, particularly offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Creighton ranks last in the country in forcing turnovers (11.2 percent) and grabs offensive boards on just 25.9 percent of missed shots (282nd). Safe Giants also play fast–more possessions mean more chances to separate themselves from an inferior opponent. But Creighton’s tempo is below the national average.
Creighton is a great shooting team, both inside and out. Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman and Ryan Kalkbrenner can fill it up against any opponent. But the difference between the NCAA Tournament and the NBA playoffs is that one poor shooting night can spell doom. A certain amount of shooting success is simple luck–sometimes, a ball goes halfway down and bounces back out. Creighton takes nearly half of its shots from three-point range (48.9 percent, seventh in the nation), which increases that variance. That opens the door for an inferior team to win when those shots aren’t going down.
Advertisement
Does Creighton have the talent to make a deep run? Yes. However, they will always be vulnerable to a quick exit if they rely on shooting and conservative defense to win.
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s Peacocks
Upset Chance: 7.4 percent
Spread: Tennessee favored by 21.5 points
Aww, come on now, who wouldn’t like to root for Saint Peter’s? We all remember the Peacocks’ amazing run in 2022, when they stunned Kentucky, Murray State and — that’s right — Purdue on their way to the Elite Eight, temporarily making Doug Edert, the mustachioed pride of Nutley, N.J., a household name. This ostentation plays very deliberately, too, and can grab offensive boards. But they still don’t launch threes (ranking 315th in the country in 3PA/FGA); this time, they’re even worse at making 2s (shooting a hard-to-believe 42.4 percent from inside, ranking 359th). Saint Peter’s scraped together three narrow MAAC conference tournament wins to land a 15-seed.
Still, now they’re about to face Tennessee, which is more than 30 points stronger per 100 possessions than the average opponent the Peacocks have faced this season. The Vols have the third-best defense in the country, giving up just 91 adjusted points per 100 possessions. And they don’t make mistakes on offense. Indeed, Tennessee is particularly outstanding at avoiding turnovers that aren’t steals (just 5.2 percent of possessions, ranking third), which Saint Peter’s is best at forcing defensively. Slingshot sees the gap in basic power ratings here as the biggest in any 2-15 matchups. The Peacocks are likely to get plucked.
No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 16 Montana State or No. 16 Grambling State
Upset Chance: 9.7 percent vs. Grambling St.; 3.7 percent vs. Montana St.
After last season’s historic failure against Fairleigh Dickinson, we declared Purdue the worst tournament favorite of all time. But heading into this year’s tournament, we offer good news: After losing to St. Peter’s and FDU in consecutive seasons, Purdue won’t face a New Jersey team in this year’s first round.
Advertisement
Our model doesn’t account for demons, so it doesn’t think Purdue should have much trouble with either potential opponent. Montana St. went just 17-17 this season, ranks 234th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and is 356th in offensive rebounding (20.7 percent). That’s typically one of the greatest weapons for a lively underdog; now they have to figure out how to outwork Zach Edey for second shots. Good luck.
Slingshot sees Grambling State as a peskier foe. The Tigers play slowly – 314th in adjusted tempo – and force turnovers on 19.1 percent of opponents’ possessions. On the other hand, Donte Jackson’s team ranks 297th in the nation in offensive efficiency and started the season 2-10, with non-conference losses to NCAA Tournament teams Colorado (by 32 points), Iowa St. (by 55), Dayton (by 30), Washington St. (by 18), Drake (by 12) and Florida (by 29). They did manage to beat the College of Biblical Studies by 12.
So let’s put it this way: If Purdue loses in the first round against an opponent this poor again, it might want to consider trying the NIT for a couple of seasons.
Thanks to John Harris, Kevin Hutson and Liz Bouzarth of Furman University for research assistance.
(Photo Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo credit: Via Getty; Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire, Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)