Pittsburgh Pirates 2024 top-20 prospects: Paul Skenes, Termarr Johnson lead the way

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ system remains strong even with a slew of graduations last year — Henry Davis, Endy Rodríguez, Quinn Priester, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Luis Ortiz, Ji-Hwan Bae, Jared Triolo, and Carmen Mlodzinski were all on the Pirates’ top 20 last year and then lost eligibility in 2023 by playing too much in the majors for this list. That’s a lot of talent for a system to produce in one year, and the fact that the Pirates’ farm system still has as much talent as it does is a credit to Pittsburgh’s scouts and player development staff.

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Pirates 2024 top 20 prospects

(Note: Seasonal ages as of July 1, 2024. Scouting grades are on the traditional 20-80 or 2-8 scouting scale.)

1. Paul Skenes, RHP (2024 top 100 ranking: 10)

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-6 | Weight: 235 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22

Skenes was the first overall pick in last year’s draft, coming off a spring where he was nearly unhittable as the Friday night starter for the eventual national champion LSU Tigers, punching out 45 percent of batters he faced and pitching regularly at 96-102 mph with a wipeout slider. He’s a pitcher of unusual size, already 6-6 and probably 260 or so, and hides the ball extremely well behind his body thanks to a compact arm action, allowing him to get away with some iffy fastball command and below-average life on the pitch. He offers ace ceiling, with size and arm strength you can’t teach, but has several adjustments to make to get there, including ramping up use of a changeup he never bothered to use in college (why would he do hitters the favor) and working on a two-seamer so hitters don’t cheat and sit on the straight four-seamer instead. His command is probably a 45 or so, although he throws the fastball for strikes enough that I’d be surprised if walks were an issue before he reaches Triple A, where they use the automated ball-strike system (ABS).

He’ll need to take a few more steps forward to give the Pirates a real top-of-the-rotation solution, but Pirates fans can take heart in Skenes’ track record of improvements, as he went from a two-way player with an above-average fastball at Air Force in 2022 to the dominant starter we saw last spring at LSU. Look for him to reach Pittsburgh at some point this summer.

2. Termarr Johnson, 2B (2024 top 100 ranking: 24)

Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 5-8 | Weight: 175 | Seasonal age in 2024: 20

Johnson has real plate discipline and excellent feel to hit, leading the full-season minors in walk rate and finishing fifth in total walks drawn with 101. He has excellent pitch selection and developing power but some cracks in the approach and the defense that weren’t apparent before this year. Johnson cleared up the hitch he would flash in high school and his bat path now is clean and lets him get to that emerging power, with 18 homers in 2023 after he hit just one in 23 games in his pro debut the year before. He doesn’t chase, a skill that was more evident after he was promoted out of the Florida State League, where the league uses automated ball-strike system for some games, which has produced higher walk rates when it’s in place. However, he’s shown more propensity to whiff in the zone, and a late load seems to be impairing his timing, so even if he picks up the pitch type he’s still showing some swing and miss.

Defensively, he’s moved to second base and scouts are very mixed on whether that’s going to be a long-term solution for him, as his footwork isn’t great and he’s getting by on his incredible instincts and baseball IQ — which isn’t a bad thing, mind you, but might not keep him at the position unless his mechanics improve. His range of outcomes has widened in both directions since last offseason; he could be a high-OBP, 18-22 homer second baseman, making a lot of All-Star teams and playing for a long time, but he could also end up in left field and/or miss too much in the zone to get to the high averages and OBPs everyone foresaw in high school.

3. Jared Jones, RHP (2024 top 100 ranking: 39)

Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 190 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22

Jones was the Pirates’ second-round pick in the 2020 draft, a high school pitcher with arm strength and athleticism but a long way to go as a pitcher. Their patience is paying off, as he reached Triple A last year as a four-pitch guy who looks like he’ll at least be a league-average starter, with more room to grow. He’s sitting mid-90s now, touching 100 mph, with a slider that’s gone from a 40 to presently close to a 60, getting into the low 90s with high spin and some sharp downward break. He throws all four pitches for strikes, with a changeup that’s good enough to keep lefties in check. His stuff did taper off as the season progressed, not excessively but enough to mention, and he may need to work on pacing himself in the earlier part of the year to stay strong through September in the longer big-league season. He’s the most polished of Pittsburgh’s upper-level pitching prospects and the most likely to come up and help in the majors this year. Whether his ceiling extends beyond that of a mid-rotation guy may come down to his in-season durability more than anything with his stuff or approach.

4. Bubba Chandler, RHP (2024 top 100 ranking: 48)

Bats: B | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 200 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21

Chandler finally gave up trying to be a two-way player, and it’s probably not surprising that he made much more progress in 2023 just trying to pitch than he had the year before. Chandler has an incredible fastball, 94-98 mph with huge induced vertical, a pitch that when he stops trying to be too fine in locating it will be a wipeout offering. He pairs it with a 70 changeup and can spin two distinct breaking balls, although landing either of them is still a work in progress. As you might expect from a former shortstop/pitcher and high school quarterback, he’s an outstanding athlete, and his delivery doesn’t have a ton of effort for the velocity it generates. He had some control issues early in the year, but finished strongly — his final nine starts, one of which came in Double A, had him throwing 48 2/3 innings with 51 strikeouts, 13 walks, and a 1.66 ERA. He’s got the highest ceiling of the Pirates’ trio of starter prospects (not named Paul Skenes) along with Jared Jones and lefty Anthony Solometo.

5. Anthony Solometo, LHP

Bats: L | Throws: L | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 220 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21

Solometo has a funky delivery that makes him very hard to hit, especially for lefties. He shows the three pitches to start, but his arm swing looks longer and he’s having enough trouble repeating it that scouts think he’s destined for the bullpen. He’s 90-95 mph with a plus slider that’s got big sweep and a fringy split-change that runs too much to his glove side because of his delivery. He’s cutting himself off now, so he can’t locate his fastball or changeup to his glove side and right-handed hitters can cheat a little and look on the outer half. He could end up a starter but I think he has to get more on line to the plate and shorten up the arm stroke for command and consistency.

Thomas Harrington has a four-pitch mix. (Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)

6. Thomas Harrington, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22

Harrington’s a polished four-pitch guy who gets good spin on a short slider and bigger curve, working mostly 92-95 mph with a fringy changeup that he needs to develop to get lefties out more consistently. He’s even had a cutter beyond the four pitches, but the Pirates had him back off that to work on the changeup and slider, with the latter pitch better when he gets more sweep to it. His delivery is compact and repeatable, and he throws enough strikes, although it’s a bit more control than command. He looks like a near-term fourth starter who could become a little more if any of his offspeed pitches ticks up a half-grade.

7. Lonnie White Jr., OF

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 212 | Seasonal age in 2024: 21

White played 61 games last year after playing just two games in 2022 around a UCL injury and a hamstring strain, and he showed the tools that made him the Pirates’ second-round pick in 2021. He flashed plus speed and plus game power even after missing the start of 2023 while recovering from thumb surgery, so it’s possible there’s even more power to come as he regains more strength in his hand. He did struggle with contact on offspeed stuff, possibly a function of rust but also a sign that he’s probably not going to move too quickly through the system. There’s above-average regular upside in center field if he can just stay out of the trainer’s room.

8. Mitch Jebb, SS

Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 185 | Seasonal age in 2024: 22

The Pirates took Jebb in the second round last season out of Michigan State, where he was a high-contact hitter with 70 speed and the potential to stay at shortstop, offering very little power and probably not a ton of ceiling. The Pirates split his time in Low-A Bradenton between shortstop and second, but they plan to try him in center to see if the speed and baseball IQ translate into plus defense there, which would change his profile. He continued to be very difficult to strike out even in Low A, with a 7.1 percent strikeout rate and just a 2.7 percent swinging strike rate, but his contact quality was very poor. He does have some room to get stronger and I think he has to do so to have any shot to be a regular.

9. Michael Kennedy, LHP

Bats: L | Throws: L | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205 | Seasonal age in 2024: 19

The Pirates played it smart with Kennedy, their 2022 fourth-round pick, as he was a young draft out of high school, and they kept him in the complex league for his first full professional season. He showed above-average control and solid-average command, working from a low release height at 90-92 mph with an average slider and changeup. He’s started to fill out physically and showed he could repeat his delivery, while the Pirates are still hoping to see more velocity as he matures. He offers mid-rotation upside if that happens, although he doesn’t have enough stuff to be a major-league starter at the moment.

10. Braxton Ashcraft, RHP

Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 195 | Seasonal age in 2024: 24

Ashcraft got healthy last year after years of injury trouble, including surgery on his non-throwing shoulder in 2019 and Tommy John surgery in 2021 that kept him out until last year. He’s a tremendous athlete who actually has a solid delivery he can repeat for strikes, although there’s a little effort at release. He’s 94-96 mph, touching 98, with a hammer curveball that has a sharp downward break and a fairly sharp slider as well, barely using a cutter or changeup even against lefties. He didn’t show a platoon split in his limited action last year, using the curveball as his out pitch for left-handed batters. If he keeps that going, he has mid-rotation upside as long as he can handle the workload.

11. Jun-Seok Shim, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 185 | Seasonal age in 2024: 20

Shim only threw eight innings in the Florida Complex League last year after signing in January 2023 for $750,000, but the innings, they were good. He’s up to 100 mph with huge spin on two distinct breaking balls, and probably would have seen Low A if an ankle injury hadn’t slowed him down. He’s got a very live arm and doesn’t seem to expend much effort for that kind of velocity. You can dream on some huge upside here with that stuff and his 6-4 frame.

12. Mike Burrows, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 190 | Seasonal age in 2024: 24

Burrows threw just 6 2/3 innings last year before his elbow gave out, which is a shame as he would have made his major-league debut at some point in 2023. He’s got big-time ride on his 92-94 mph fastball and gets high spin rates on his slider and curve, although he has to come in high with the curveball to get it in the zone and his delivery has him pitching very north-south. He does have a solid-average changeup to get lefties out and projects as a starter, holding his stuff deep enough into games to soak up some innings. I do think the stuff plays down from its pitch metrics because of the delivery, although at this point it’s immaterial until he’s healthy again later this year.

13. Yordany De Los Santos

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175 | Seasonal age in 2024: 19

You can add De Los Santos to the list of players hurt by MLB’s penurious decision to axe the short-season leagues, as he was too good to return to the complex but overmatched in Low A as an 18-year-old, struggling with offspeed stuff and his own lack of present strength. He’s extremely smart, and you can project more strength and some in-game power on his frame. He may end up moving off shortstop to second or third. I wouldn’t give up on him after the poor showing in 2023.

14. Axiel Plaz, C

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 5-11 | Weight: 165 | Seasonal age in 2024: 18

I tabbed Plaz as a deep sleeper in this system last year, but he got hurt and played awfully when he did get on the field in the FCL last year. He’s a true catcher and has plus power already, but never looked 100 percent in 2023. He only turned 18 in August so he can and should repeat the complex league this year, whenever MLB decides to play it.

Omar Alfonzo has strong baseball bloodlines. (Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)

15. Omar Alfonzo, C

Bats: L | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 180 | Seasonal age in 2024: 20

Omar is Eliezer Alfonzo’s son, and like his father, Omar’s a high-contact, low-power catcher with strong defensive skills. He hit .273/.390/.413 in Low A as a 19-year-old last year, throwing out 30 percent of runners at that level, but not making much hard contact. He should be at least as good as dear ol’ dad, but if he gains some strength just for better contact quality he could end up a regular.

16. Jhonny Severino, SS/3B

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 185 | Seasonal age in 2024: 19

The Pirates picked up Severino from the Brewers at the trade deadline for Carlos Santana, but he played just three games for the FCL Bucs before returning to the injured list with a broken hamate. He swings hard, looking to do damage, with good loft in his finish to hit for power — he slugged .583 in 12 games before he hit the injured list last summer — but he swings at everything right now and has to tone that down. He’s a natural shortstop but more likely to end up at third base.

17. Jase Bowen, OF

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 190 | Seasonal age in 2024: 23

Bowen’s always been more tools than baseball skills, moving slowly up the system and debuting in Double A last September at age 22, still swinging and missing too often to profile as a regular. He’s versatile in the field, playing surprisingly well at first base and capable of running around center, with some experience at second a few years ago and time in the outfield corners. The power surge last year was partially fueled by playing in hitter-friendly Greensboro. I do think he’s a big leaguer, but an extra guy.

18. Alessandro Ercolani, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185 | Seasonal age in 2024: 20

Ercolani is vying to become the first major-leaguer born in the country of San Marino (population 33,660), and he has a pretty good shot if he stays healthy. He’s 93-97 mph with four pitches, getting some good angle on the curveball, much more effective against right-handed batters because he’s slightly across his body and his changeup is below-average. He’s probably a reliever but only turns 20 in April, so he has time to smooth out the delivery and develop the changeup and/or his cutter.

19. Hunter Barco, LHP

Bats: L | Throws: L | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 210 | Seasonal age in 2024: 23

Barco returned last year from Tommy John surgery in 2022 with a slightly cleaner arm action but not all of his velocity, working 90-91 mph with some tilt to a low-spin slider and feel for a changeup. He still cuts himself off in his landing, however, and between that and the low slot, he’s going to have a lot of trouble with glove-side command and will give right-handers a long look at the ball. He’s very likely a reliever and I worry about injury risk with the delivery.

20. Zander Mueth, RHP

Bats: R | Throws: R | Height: 6-6 | Weight: 205 | Seasonal age in 2024: 19

Mueth is a low-slot righty who’s 92-94 mph with a sweepy slider, garnering a ton of comparisons to Tanner Houck before the 2023 draft, where the Pirates took him in the second round. Houck’s a reliever, and I think Mueth will be, too, given the arm action and the trouble he’ll have turning over a changeup.

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Others of note

• Right-hander Kyle Nicolas was shelled in his first major-league appearance, but was better after that, and he’s an MLB-ready reliever who sits 95-98 mph with a 55 slider and 55 curveball. He was awful in Triple A as a starter but pitched much better in relief, which has been his most likely role since he was drafted.

• Josiah Sightler was hurt the latter half of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. He’s a first baseman or DH with big power but below-average feel to hit, getting up to 109 mph in his stint in Low A.

• Tsung-Che Cheng is an average defender at short and might be plus at second, but it’s a 45 hit tool and 40 power or less.

• Catcher Abrahan Gutierrez finally had a chance to play when Henry Davis and Endy Rodríguez went to the majors, but Gutierrez got hurt twice and only hit .240/.344/.370 between High A and Double A. He can catch, and he has hit some in the past, enough to still think he can be a quality backup.

• When the Pirates took Jack Brannigan in the third round in 2022, they announced him as a two-way player, but he hasn’t pitched in pro ball. He can play shortstop and of course has a plus arm, but it’s power over hit, not a ton of power but even less hit than that.

• Outfielder Shalin Polanco’s full-season debut wasn’t great, but there were some positives for the 19-year-old Dominican, who earned a $2.35 million signing bonus in January 2021. He showed quite a bit of in-game power, with 16 doubles and 12 homers in 303 PA for an ISO of .197, and he reached a peak exit velocity of 110 mph, while also running plus. He struck out 29 percent of the time, however, because he couldn’t pick up spin, and in hindsight he may be another guy hurt by the elimination of short-season ball.

2024 impact

There isn’t a lot of playing time available right now in Pittsburgh, with a young roster full of guys who either have earned their jobs or need reps to see if they’re solutions at their respective positions. That said, I doubt Paul Skenes spends much time in the minors; they’ll make room for him when he’s ready, probably in May or June, after he gets a few home starts at Double A and Triple A to make the affiliates happy.

The fallen

Matt Gorski was their 2019 second-round pick, an off-the-board selection to be sure after he hit just .271 as a junior at Indiana, but he did offer a huge power/speed upside in center field. He’s never hit in pro ball, with a .238/.296/.437 line last year as a Double-A repeater and worse production in 15 games in Triple A, and he’s already 26 years old. And don’t even get me started on the disaster that is Sammy Siani’s swing.

Sleeper

I mean, if Shim’s stuff looks like that, or even close to it, over 70 or 80 innings this year in A-ball, he’s going to shoot up everyone’s lists.

(Top photo of Paul Skenes: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)