The first year of the expanded, 12-team College Football Playoff hasn’t even happened yet, but the format has already changed.
The CFP’s Board of Managers voted Tuesday to reduce the number of automatic qualifiers from six to five, creating an additional at-large bid for the next two seasons. The new model — colloquially, the “5+7” — includes the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large bids.
The original model for the 12-team CFP — the 6+6 — included six automatic bids for conference champions.
BREAKING: College Football Playoff approves a move to 5+7.
Five automatic spots for conference champions. pic.twitter.com/IFkCrdWsFR
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) February 20, 2024
That vote occurred at an important time for the CFP as it tries to chart out its future. ESPN has agreed to terms with representatives for the College Football Playoff on a six-year, $7.8 billion extension to televise the event through the 2031-32 season. But the decision on automatic bids is one of many still being sorted out beyond the next two years after conference realignment changed the dynamics of Playoff expansion.
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As CFP meetings resume, the battle for control of the sport's future persists
You might see or hear the terms “6+6” and “5+7” a lot this week. These aren’t math equations. They’re models. And they work like this …
What is the 5+7 model?
The 5+7 Playoff model gives the five highest-ranked conference champions an automatic playoff bid and the next seven highest-ranked teams an at-large bid.
In this format, the top four conference champions receive a first-round bye, with the No. 5 team playing No. 12, No. 6 facing No. 11, No. 7 facing No. 10 and No. 8 facing No. 9. The 5-8 seeds would host the first round at their respective schools, and the New Year’s Six bowls (Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl and Fiesta Bowl) would host the quarterfinals and semifinals on a rotation, similar to how the six bowls took turns hosting the semifinals under the four-team format.
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Who would have made the 2023 Playoffs in a 5+7 model?
Under the 5+7 model, No. 1 Michigan (Big Ten), No. 2 Washington (Pac-12), No. 3 Texas (Big 12), No. 4 Alabama (SEC) and No. 5 Florida State (ACC) would have landed automatic spots if the 12-team Playoff began in 2023.
No. 6 Georgia, No. 7 Ohio State, No. 8 Oregon, No. 9 Missouri, No. 10 Penn State, No. 11 Ole Miss and No. 12 Oklahoma would have earned the seven remaining bids.
Notre Dame was No. 16 in the final CFP rankings, so it would have been left out. As an independent football program that does not play a full conference schedule, the Irish can only secure an at-large bid and have no current way of procuring a top-four seed and, therefore, a first-round bye.
What was the 6+6 Playoff model?
The 6+6 model gave the six highest-ranked conference champions automatic Playoff bids. The next six highest-ranked teams receive the remaining at-large bids.
This was the originally agreed-upon format for the CFP before conference realignment led to the dismantling of the Pac-12.
Who would have made the 2023 Playoff in a 6+6 model?
No. 1 Michigan (Big Ten), No. 2 Washington (Pac-12), No. 3 Texas (Big 12), No. 4 Alabama (SEC), No. 5 Florida State (ACC) and No. 23 Liberty (Conference USA) would have nabbed the top six spots as the highest-ranked conference champions if the 12-team playoff began in 2023 with a 6+6 model.
No. 6 Georgia, No. 7 Ohio State, No. 8 Oregon, No. 9 Missouri, No. 10 Penn State and No. 11 Ole Miss would’ve captured the six remaining at-large bids, which go to the next six highest-ranked teams.
American Athletic Conference champion SMU would have missed the Playoff after finishing one spot behind Liberty at No. 24.
Why is the CFP moving to a 5+7 model?
The CFP management committee initially agreed on the 6+6 model when deciding to expand the Playoff from four teams to 12. That format, however, was created when there were five complete power conferences.
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The Pac-12’s demise left one fewer power conference with an interest in virtually assuring its champion a Playoff berth. The CFP Management Committee in November introduced a policy requiring a conference to have at least eight teams to be eligible for one of the five automatic qualifying spots. That would leave what’s left of the Pac-12, now run by Washington State and Oregon State, ineligible for an automatic bid unless its membership increases.
Sticking with the 6+6 model in a world with only four power conferences would have opened the door for a second Group of 5 conference champion to snag an automatic Playoff bid. Enter the 5+7 model. The probable answer — in the short term, at least — to the tsunami of conference realignment.
“This is a very logical adjustment for the College Football Playoff based on the evolution of our conference structures since the board first adopted this new format in September 2022,” Mark Keenum, Mississippi State president and chair of the CFP Board of Managers, said in a statement. “I know this change will also be well received by student-athletes, coaches and fans. We all will be pleased to see this new format come to life on the field this postseason.”
What about beyond the next two years?
Two sources involved in the approval process said they expect 5+7 to be the starting point of the format debate for 2026 and beyond but acknowledged that it may not be the final resolution. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey has suggested on numerous occasions a world with no automatic berths at all. Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti has suggested reconsidering bracket sizes that were previously passed over, such as a 16-team field, people familiar with that discussion have told The Athletic.
More on this week’s CFP meetings and the battle for control of the Playoff’s future here.
Required reading
- College Football Playoff close to moving to 5+7 model for 12-team format starting in 2024: Source
- College Football Playoff, ESPN agree to 6-year extension worth $1.3 billion per year: Sources
(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
