2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Who’s fourth No. 1 seed? And hello, Virginia

The full NCAA Tournament bracket has been released with UConn leading the way as No. 1 overall

The weekend is here, and everyone is talking about the big game. No, not the one with all the Taylor Swift cutaways. We’re, of course, referring to America’s favorite pastime: the Blind Resume Challenge!

The annual tradition in this space works like this: We present key team-sheet numbers for a group of unnamed programs, deleting overall records to increase the degree of difficulty. Then you pretend to be on the NCAA Tournament selection committee and decide which team should be seeded higher. No preconceived notions about the name on the front of the jersey; just plain ol’ body of work. (All stats are through Thursday afternoon; props to Bracketologists.com’s compare resumes function for making this easy).

Let’s start at the top. Purdue, UConn and Houston remain the top three overall seeds this week, but who should be the fourth No. 1? (Note: None of the teams involved in these challenges has a Quad 4 loss, so we have excluded that category in all charts).

The predictive metrics (NET, KenPom, BPI) like Team A, while the results-based ones (KPI, Strength of Record) would suggest Team B. Team C has an outstanding road record, while Team D’s resume doesn’t scream “No. 1 seed” in any category.

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Reveal time: Team A is Arizona, Team B is Tennessee, Team C is North Carolina and Team D is Kansas. Of course, there is more context involved here than simple numbers. Tennessee lost to both UNC and Kansas, in an eight-day span in November. Kansas has wins over a pair of other No. 1 seeds — UConn and Houston (both at home). Arizona has four Top-25 victories, three of them away from home, including a true road win at Duke, but some shaky Pac-12 road performances. This table was done before the Wildcats blew a 16-point halftime lead at Utah on Thursday but held on to win in triple overtime, giving them a sixth Quad 1 win.

That’s enough for Arizona to get the nod, barely, as No. 4 overall. You could make a good case for any of these four teams as the fourth No. 1 seed but probably not for anybody else outside this group.

OK, time for Round 2. Do you think being on the selection committee is easy? Try seeding these three teams:

The NET and KenPom rankings of this trio are mirror images. Team A has been better in the first two quads (7-5, compared to 7-6 for Team B and 7-8 for Team C), while Team C played the best of three pretty crummy nonconference schedules.

Move that bus! Team A is Texas Tech, Team B is TCU and Team C is Texas. Complicating matters further, the Red Raiders won at Texas but lost at TCU, while the Longhorns beat the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth last Saturday.

We give the slight edge to TCU because its metrics average slightly outpaces Texas Tech (34.4 to 34.6 — razor-thin stuff) and it beat Houston and won at Baylor while taking the head-to-head meeting against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech’s win in Austin gives it a leg up on the Longhorns. But it’s a thorny vine, and we wonder how much the committee will dock each of these teams for those poor nonconference schedules even while playing in the nation’s gnarliest conference.

GO DEEPER

Bubble Watch: Did the Big 12 game the system? And 6 more locks

Finally, let’s go to the bubble. See if you can sort out who should be in and who should be out of the field of 68:

We added the Top-25 wins category for more context, and you can see that Team D stands out here. But what if we told you that same team lost its best player midseason? Or that Team B is just one game above .500? Or that Team C lost to Oakland and Delaware at home?

Many of you probably have figured out what all of these teams have in common.

• Team A: St. John’s
• Team B: Villanova
• Team C: Xavier
• Team D: Providence
• Team E: Seton Hall

And we didn’t even include Butler, which is very much on the bubble. The Big East amazingly has six teams bunched up on the cutline; the always-bananas league tourney in Madison Square Garden is going to be even more incredible if this continues. For the record, we have all of these teams in the field except Villanova and Xavier. Nova’s 12-11 record and poor road performance are too hard to forgive, while the Musketeers are coming on strong and have nonconference wins over Saint Mary’s and Cincinnati that are paying dividends. Can’t wait to see how this plays out.

And thank you for playing America’s favorite game.

Some more notes on this week’s bracket, now just 37 days until Selection Sunday:

• The ACC is back, baby! Well, sorta. After a few weeks of having just three bids, the league boosts that number to four this week thanks to Virginia’s resurgence. The Cavaliers have won seven straight to move most of their metrics into the 30s. Clemson’s big win on Tuesday at North Carolina solidified the Tigers’ at-large status and improved the quality of UVa’s win on Saturday at Littlejohn Coliseum. With wins at Alabama and UNC and versus South Carolina, Clemson can afford a few more hiccups and still make the field.

• Making their bracket debut this week: the Washington State Cougars! Wazzu (17-6) quietly has won seven of its past eight games, including Quad 1 victories over Arizona, Colorado and at Washington, and though its nonconference schedule was light, it did beat Boise State. The program hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since Tony Bennett led it to the Sweet 16 in 2008.

• We didn’t venture into the comments section during last week’s all-mailbag edition, but we’ll be back to play along this week. Tee up those questions and complaints. We are game.

First Four

Dayton

16

Stetson

16

Grambling

Dayton

10

St. John's

10

Colorado

Dayton

16

Wagner

16

Howard

Dayton

10

Michigan State

10

Florida Atlantic

East Region (Boston)

Brooklyn

1

Connecticut

16

Saint Peter's

Brooklyn

8

Nebraska

9

TCU

Brooklyn

4

Duke

13

Yale

Brooklyn

5

South Carolina

12

UAB

Memphis

3

Baylor

14

Vermont

Memphis

6

Saint Mary's

11

NC State

Charlotte

2

Tennessee

15

Longwood

Charlotte

7

Washington State

10

New Mexico

South Region (Dallas)

Memphis

1

Houston

16

Wagner

Howard

Memphis

8

Dayton

9

Mississippi State

Spokane

4

Kentucky

13

Akron

Spokane

5

Texas Tech

12

McNeese State

Pittsburgh

3

Illinois

14

Oakland

Pittsburgh

6

Clemson

11

Oregon

Indianapolis

2

Marquette

15

Long Beach State

Indianapolis

7

Boise State

10

Michigan State

Florida Atlantic

West Region (Los Angeles)

Charlotte

1

North Carolina

16

Stetson

Grambling

Charlotte

8

Nevada

9

Northwestern

Salt Lake City

4

BYU

13

Charleston

Salt Lake City

5

Alabama

12

Grand Canyon

Omaha

3

Kansas

14

Colgate

Omaha

6

Wisconsin

11

James Madison

Salt Lake City

2

Arizona

15

South Dakota State

Salt Lake City

7

Utah State

10

Texas A&M

Midwest Region (Detroit)

Indianapolis

1

Purdue

16

Montana State

Indianapolis

8

Texas

9

Colorado State

Spokane

4

Auburn

13

Samford

Spokane

5

San Diego State

12

Duquesne

Pittsburgh

3

Creighton

14

Morehead State

Pittsburgh

6

Florida

11

Drake

Omaha

2

Iowa State

15

Western Kentucky

Omaha

7

Gonzaga

10

St. John's

Colorado

(Photo of Butler’s Andre Screen and UConn’s Donovan Clingan: David Butler II / USA Today)