The phrase “on the bubble” is believed to have originated with auto racing, particularly the Indianapolis 500, where the final day of qualifying is known as “Bump Day” or “Bubble Day,” and drivers in danger of getting bumped from the starting field by faster times are deemed “on the bubble.”
By the late 1980s, the term caught on in college basketball circles ahead of NCAA Tournament selections, with bubbles getting popped by automatic-qualifying bid thieves or other bubble teams deemed worthy of a tourney invite.
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So here we are again, forever blowing bubbles. The Super Bowl is less than two weeks away, meaning college basketball is primping for its annual March Madness close-up — and Bubble Watch is back.
For those of you accustomed to reading Eamonn Brennan in this space, a brief caveat. I can’t and won’t attempt to replicate Eammon’s unique approach to Bubble Watch, which he continues to write over at Buzzer, his personal Substack, and which I encourage you to check out and support if you can.
This (ideally) will become a familiar but distinct take on Bubble Watch, aiming to complement The Athletic’s other weekly offerings of Bracket Watch, Power Rankings and CJ Moore’s Top 25 and to keep you attuned to what the committee will be weighing as we approach Selection Sunday on March 17.
Each week, we’ll give an updated list of teams that are “locks,” those “projected to be in the field” of 68 and those that are “on the bubble.” Teams that are “locks” won’t change, save for extraordinary circumstances — we’re starting with only six in this initial edition — but “projected to be in” and “on the bubble” are fluid designations. A team that is locked would, in our view, still make the NCAA Tournament if it lost every game between now and Selection Sunday; we’ll err on the safe side with all lock calls.
We’ll divvy up those designations by conference, including the Power 6 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC) and at least for this season, the increasingly impressive Mountain West, along with a collection of other mid-major hopefuls. There will be a weekly spotlight on one bubble team from each of the top seven conferences and at least a couple from the remaining mid-majors. Our goal will be to spotlight different programs each week, unless or until teams warrant repeat appearances, particularly as we enter conference tournaments. If your bubble team wasn’t spotlighted this week, give it time.
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Records and any rankings for NET, KenPom and strength of schedule (SOS) are current through Monday morning.
ACC
Spotlight on: Virginia
Resume at a glance: 15-5, 6-3 ACC; NET: 49, KenPom: 58, SOS: 118, Quad 1: 1-3
What a journey it has been for Tony Bennett and the Cavaliers this past decade. Virginia was dominant from 2014-19, winning four regular-season ACC titles, culminating in that fairytale 2019 national championship one year after being the first No. 1 seed bounced from March Madness in the first round. But since the 2020 NCAA Tournament was canceled by the pandemic, Virginia has made the tourney two out of three seasons and lost as a No. 4 seed in the first round on both occasions, and this year UVa is in a battle to make the field.
The Hoos bounced back from consecutive road losses to win four straight and will have ample opportunities to play their way off the bubble during the next month, starting with a critical Quad 1 opportunity at Clemson this weekend. Virginia is currently just 1-3 in Q1 games, the only win coming in a neutral, nonconference game against Florida way back on Nov. 10. Virginia is 4-5 away from home, including a Q3 loss to Notre Dame, but also 3-1 in Q2 games with a string of Q1s and Q2s ahead.
Big Ten
Spotlight on: Nebraska
Resume at a glance: 15-6, 5-5 Big Ten; NET: 60, KenPom: 52, SOS: 66, Q1: 3-3
On the heels of a humbling road loss to Maryland last weekend, a massive three-game stretch looms for the Cornhuskers, with three straight Quad 1 games at home against Wisconsin then on the road at Illinois and Northwestern. Taking at least two of those would be a huge resume boost for a Nebraska squad that has a nice nonconference road win against Kansas State and a beaming Q1 win over Purdue but is just 1-5 on the road. This could be the last chance to stand out before the conference tourney; after this three-game stretch, there is currently just one remaining Q1 on the schedule, at Ohio State on Feb. 29.
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The Huskers are attempting to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time under coach Fred Hoiberg and for the program’s first trip since 2014, led by the veteran trio of Keisei Tominaga, Brice Williams and Rienk Mast, who are all averaging roughly 13 points per game and shooting 80-plus percent from the line and 35-plus percent from 3-point range.
GO DEEPER
Is it finally time to believe in Nebraska basketball?
Big 12
Spotlight on: Kansas State
Resume at a glance: 14-6, 4-3 Big 12; NET: 73, KenPom: 65, SOS: 59, Q1: 1-3
It’s getting spicy in the Big 12. Following a couple of heated discussions between Kansas State coach Jerome Tang and Iowa State coach T.J. Otzelberger during a game last week, The Wichita Eagle reported that Tang and the K-State coaching staff were concerned that Iowa State managers were positioned behind the opposing bench and potentially filming or photographing the K-State huddles. Sign-stealing drama has now infiltrated college hoops! Otzelberger responded to the report, describing it as “an affront to our players, our fans and to me,” and claiming that one of Kansas State’s assistants “cursed out” an Iowa State team manager.
Sign me up for a little extra fire in the Farmageddon rivalry. But for now, the Wildcats have bigger issues. They lost that game at Iowa State then got blown out at Houston during the weekend and are a level below fellow Big 12 bubble teams TCU, Texas and Cincinnati as far as the NET and KenPom rankings go. They are just 1-3 in Q1 games, with all three losses on the road. But this is the Big 12, meaning the Q1 matchups keep coming, with eight of their final 11 regular-season games currently registering as such. That includes the final one: at home against Iowa State.
Big East
Spotlight on: Villanova
Resume at a glance: 11-9, 4-5 Big East; NET: 43, KenPom: 39, SOS: 7, Q1: 3-5
Oof. Suddenly, the wheels are falling off for Nova. Things started brightly, despite painful Big 5 (and Q3) losses to Penn, St. Joseph’s and Drexel, with nonconference wins over North Carolina, Texas Tech, Memphis, Maryland and UCLA and a Big East-opening road win over Creighton. Now, that’s what is salvaging four straight losses in league play, including a heartbreaker at home to UConn and a double-overtime loss at Butler.
Nova and Kyle Neptune need to turn it around, starting with a chance Tuesday night at home against Marquette and then Providence, at Xavier and back home against Seton Hall the next couple weeks. Nine of the Wildcats’ final 11 games are currently Q1 and Q2 matchups, which they will need to offset those early Q3 losses and a 2-5 mark on the road. Getting senior guard Justin Moore back on track will be crucial to that effort. The team’s second-leading scorer returned a couple of weeks ago after missing a month of action but has struggled to find a rhythm, shooting 14 of 38 from the field in his five games back and just 3 of 20 from beyond the arc. His best showing was 15 points and 7-of-9 shooting in the one-point loss to UConn.
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Pac-12
Spotlight on Colorado:
Resume at a glance: 5-6, 6-4 Pac-12; NET: 29, KenPom: 24, SOS: 77, Q1: 1-3
The Buffaloes are one of those enigma teams whose NET and KenPom rankings are better than the resume might suggest. They had nonconference wins over Richmond and Miami in an otherwise lackluster slate and are now in the midst of a down season for the Pac-12 as a whole. Colorado is just 1-3 in Q1 games, and that one win, on the road against Washington, is currently clinging to the Q1 line by a thread.
Working in CU’s favor is that it has yet to suffer a bad loss, going 5-3 in Q2 games and 9-0 versus Q3 and Q4 teams, although road losses to Arizona State and Cal could drop to Q3 eventually. All of it, as well as Saturday’s loss at Washington State, has Colorado right on that cut line for the time being, making Saturday’s road trip to Utah and the following Saturday at home against Arizona vital chances for the Buffaloes to pick up some solid Q1 victories. Win both of those, and folks will be feeling good in Boulder, but a losing streak could put the Buffs in the danger zone.
SEC
Spotlight on: Florida
Resume at a glance: 14-6, 4-3 SEC; NET: 39, KenPom: 35, SOS: 49, Q1: 0-6
The Gators are one of the most fascinating bubble teams. All six losses are to Q1 opponents — three in nonconference play and three in the SEC. Up next? Three straight Q1 matchups: at Kentucky and Texas A&M, then home for Auburn. If they leave that game against the Tigers on Feb. 10 with a 0-9 mark in Q1 games, combined with what would be a 1-5 road record, it will be tough to justify keeping them in the bubble conversation.
With a guard-heavy rotation led by transfers Walter Clayton Jr. (15.9 points per game) and Zyon Pullin (14.9 ppg., 4.8 apg., 38.1 percent 3FG), the Gators have made considerable strides in Todd Golden’s second season at the helm, including a top-15 offense, according to KenPom, and one of the best offensive rebounding rates in the country. But Florida needs to start clocking some signature wins if it wants to see its name pop up on Selection Sunday.
Mountain West
Spotlight on: Boise State
Resume at a glance: 14-6, 5-2 MWC; NET: 55, KenPom: 57, SOS: 30, Q1: 3-4
Boise State is the inverse of a team like Colorado, with NET and KenPom rankings dragging down near the cut line but a resume that looks like an NCAA Tournament team. The Broncos have a few quality nonconference wins, highlighted by a neutral Q1 victory over Saint Mary’s and a strong strength of schedule to buttress a 5-4 record away from home.
The other good news for Boise State is that in a particularly strong year for the Mountain West Conference, it still has plenty of chances to add to that 3-4 Q1 record, including road opportunities in three of its next four games at New Mexico, Colorado State and Utah State. Win a couple of those, and it will be tough to have the Broncos on the outside looking in. They’ve done it with stout defense and rebounding, limiting conference opponents to a league-low 27.3 percent from 3-point range, and leaning on a big four of upperclassmen in homegrown players Tyson Degenhart and Max Rice and transfers O’Mar Stanley and Chibuzo Agbo, who are all averaging double-digit in scoring.
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Others
Spotlight on: Saint Mary’s and Indiana State
Saint Mary’s resume at a glance: 16-6, 7-0 WCC; NET: 21, KenPom: 30, SOS: 113, Q1: 3-1
It was a brutal start to the season for the Gaels, limping to a 3-5 to start in December. Since then, they’ve won 13 of 14, and they are riding an eight-game winning streak, during which they’ve had the top offensive and defensive efficiency metrics in the WCC, according to KenPom. Sophomore guard Aidan Mahaney has come on strong, averaging 17.7 points per game during his past seven and shooting 46 percent from beyond the arc during that stretch.
The Gaels are back to looking like the team everyone expected them to be, in a rare year when Gonzaga looks slightly vulnerable. Saint Mary’s may very well claim the WCC’s automatic bid by the end, but a Q1 road win over Gonzaga on Saturday would allay any lingering at-large doubts, with quality home games against San Francisco and the Zags still left on the regular-season schedule.
Indiana State’s resume at a glance: 18-3, 9-1 Missouri Valley; NET: 24, KenPom: 37, SOS: 127, Q1: 1-3
Up the Sycamores! Turns out Purdue isn’t the only program bettering Indiana in the Hoosier State. The boys from Terre Haute are an impressive 18-3, with only a trio of Q road losses to Alabama, Michigan State and MVC foe Drake. Coached by Josh Schertz — in his third season after 13 at Division II Lincoln Memorial — Indiana State has one of the best offenses in the country, shooting 41.1 percent from 3-point range and holding the top effective field-goal percentage in the country, according to KenPom. Southern Indiana transfer Isaiah Swope is the team’s leading scorer at 18.4 points per game and 41.4 percent from distance.
With zero Q1 games and only a pair of Q2 opportunities left as things currently stand, Indiana State needs to nab the first of those in a home rematch with Drake on Saturday and probably will need to at least reach the MVC championship game to have a shot as an at-large team. The MVC does have a history of multiple tourney bids, happening five times since 2012 and with four teams getting in as recently as 2006. But whether Indiana State makes it via auto qualifier or sweating out a bid on Selection Sunday, a trip to the tourney would be the Sycamores’ first since 2011 and only the fifth since Larry Bird led the program to the national title game in 1979.
(Top photo of Saint Mary’s guard Chris Howell, Xavier’s Desmond Claude and Virginia’s Reece Beekman: Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today and Ryan M. Kelly / Getty Images)
